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Rapid growth at Just Retirement (JR.)     

EWRobson - 31 Jan 2007 16:54

After just two months on the AIM market, Just Retirement have published quite dramatic new business figures. 6 months figures are up 215% and rose 16.4% quarter on quarter. Very popular with IFAs, major part of the business in is annuities. However, what impressed me was their very well conceived equity release product. Reversion products have not had a good name but this seems to be good both for the pensioner and for Just Retirement.

The chart shows the popularity of the share. The flotation raised 63m. Deutsche Bank have major stake. I have taken a very minor one!

Eric

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=JR.&Si

EWRobson - 02 Apr 2007 21:16 - 15 of 23

Fortitude. Thanks for the definitions. I assume that the embedded value is based on actuarial calculations and therefore on the life expectancy of an annuity cluient. As I understand it, RT. are giving better annuity rates based on the life expectancy, e.g. of a smoker. The majors can't match the rates because it would impact on their other business. Bearing in mind the changes in life expectancy, presumably there can be changes down the line but perhaps we can leave that to the shareholders at the time. The strength clearly lies in the excellent relations established with IFA's. Note the comment in the results: "The Exchange Annuity portal, which allows IFAs to obtain real-time quotes for enhanced annuities on-line, went live in November 2006. In addition to increasing volumes of new sales, this also provides the Group with information which is being used to improve our marketing activities and also improve service and efficiency."

My own direct contact with JR. occurred when I was looking at Equity Release. Their offering is unique in the market based on reversion where they take a share in ownership of the property. The share is equivalent to the amount borrowed and increases instead of the client paying interest. Compared with other operators in that market, I concluded that their offering was ethical and, depending on the circumstances of the mortgagee, potentially attractive. FSAs were bending over backwards to promote the product: it soon became clear why - they were getting a very nice commission, thank you very much! Not sure how they account for this in their books, presumably an increase in book value will be taken into profits. This would mean a revaluation, which could take some time, or a closure; but they will be building up a super property portfolio.

Substantial sales today, presumably profit taking, but sp has still moved ahead. JR. must deserve a premium rating which it hardly has yet. Suggest you don't delay stepping in - st and sd!

Eric

soul traders - 02 Apr 2007 21:40 - 16 of 23

Eric, you have a strong point. Spent today's milk money on ATCG, but will not lose track of this one if i can help it.

fortitude18 - 02 Apr 2007 22:13 - 17 of 23

this stock is screaming to breakout, there's still a teeny selling bias at present but I can feel it in my water..not very scientific i know but i have the facts and then my instincts take over

f18

stockdog - 03 Apr 2007 10:11 - 18 of 23

f18 - an aquarian by nature I see - mouth-watering, feeling it in your water.

Thanks for the expert explanation, although the effect of the mouth-watering was somewhat lost on me on account of the brain-numbing arithmetic. When the feeling returns I too may grow to savour the water. lol!

Eric, ethical maybe, but did you note the 12.2% return on their Equity Release business - nice work if you can get it.

Still watching.

EWRobson - 03 Apr 2007 12:15 - 19 of 23

sd likes charts for breakfast so I have updated those in the header. Triggered by F18's comment re break-out. Chart shows the exponential 50 day average which is a pretty uniform rise since launch; so break-out not really needed as still in break-out from launch. Suggest chart is looking for fair market value which could be considerably above current levels. Surely sd can't resist such a juicy prospect!

Thanks, sd, for pointing out the 12.2% margin on equity release business. This is being taken as profit up-front; not sure how the calculation is done. This is anotherr juicy bone as this business is likely to increase very strongly, especially through the tie up with Saga who have a captive market. Note also that the property part-owned is treated as asset backing for annuity sales which I believe implies that they need less liquid capital.

Eric

fortitude18 - 04 Apr 2007 14:37 - 20 of 23

i see Saga, one of JR.'s many partners is making plans to float its company, should prove very bullish for this stock

soul traders - 04 Apr 2007 14:46 - 21 of 23

Interesting, F18. Saga is a very strong brand and could well be worth a punt in itself. Certainly if Saga grows, that ought to be beneficial to JR.

Still, WDIK and PDYOR, etc.

soul traders - 04 Apr 2007 14:46 - 22 of 23

JR. Bid: 300.25p Offer: 302p Change: -4

EWRobson - 26 May 2007 21:20 - 23 of 23

Received blurb from Saga based on the JR. equity release schemes - attractively presented. This is very profitable business and should grow with the Saga link and the attraction to the intermediaries. The sp has come back. Presumably profit taking. It could be the comment that the growth rate is slackening but, by gum, thats not a problem when current rate is 68%. A good thing about them is that reports are quarterly so news in July should keep them in focus.

Eric
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