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FTSE / DOW YTD

Good morning!

Good Morning.

The Papers

Muted open seen for FTSE 100 after May's Brexit deal crush

Good morning

Morning all.

EU ready to discuss new Brexit deal if UK changes "red lines"

No-deal Brexit risks creating London-Dover traffic jam - freight company DSV

Inflation falls to lowest level in nearly two years

German 30-y Bond Auction 0.85|1.1 1.04|1.2

CC.

Builders are flying.

You must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Will it last?

19/28 Blue.

A few more weeks like this and I would be happy!

Morning.

FTSE 100 Sliding back down again!!!!

Good morning!

Good Morning.

The Papers

Morning all.

Morning all,

Things are going well Fred. I'm up 7.5% so far this year and it feels very strange. Like it's too easy. I believe strongly in running winners but sometimes that makes me complacent. I need to watch out for that.

I guess I've been lucky (or perhaps skill-full) so far this month. My biggest holding (CTO) is up 6% and my second biggest holding (NMD) is up 22%. Everything else is up too from some low lows at the end of December.

There seems to be appetite from the big guys to buy the dips with decent volume. I haven't seen that for 9 months so I'm interpreting this as something has fundamentally changed in their outlook.


As for whether it continues I am very optimistic because more than anything the employment data is good. In addition the gap between wage rises and price inflation is now sizeable enough to make a difference. The money has to go somewhere, either consumers spend it (great for business), consumers save it (that surely wouldn't do any harm given level of personal debt in the UK) or tax (helping the national deficit)

Wylfa Newydd: Hitachi to halt work on UK nuclear plant

18/28 Red/ UMMH

13%up for the month. From a sizeable kick in the teeth for 12miths.

Have a disproportionately large hold of TW. which accounts for large % uprise with other builders held.

Winners or recovering over the period.

IBST, AXS BDEV BWY BKG
BVS CRST RDW TW.
IRV (uGGH)
+

TEP, EPO

-=

If "no deal"is washed away, would expect further recovery, if not ????????????

Short Squeeze ending !!!!!!

Can I take back what I posted!!!!!!!!


"Gloom shrouds UK housing market outlook as Brexit nears
Andy Bruce, William Schomberg
3 MIN READ

LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for Britain’s housing market is darkening fast ahead of Brexit, with sales expectations falling to their lowest level in at least 20 years by one measure, surveys showed on Thursday.

FILE PHOTO: Property sale signs are seen outside of a group of newly built houses in west London, Britain, November 23, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said the net balance of -28 in December among surveyors about the short-term outlook for housing sales was the weakest since it began asking the question in 1999.

The housing market has slowed since the June 2016 Brexit referendum, with house prices, as measured by mortgage lenders Halifax and Nationwide, growing at the slowest pace in around five years.

Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29 and there is still no clarity over the terms of its departure, after MPs rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposals by a huge margin on Tuesday.

A separate survey from the Bank of England showed lenders in Britain expect demand for mortgages and credit cards will fall by the greatest extent seen for several years.

Its gauge of forecast demand for mortgage lending over the next three months fell to -17.5 in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.2 in the third quarter, its lowest level since late 2010.

The BoE survey also showed lenders expect demand for credit card lending to fall at the fastest pace since records started in 2007.

“The (BoE) credit conditions survey added to the evidence that the housing market is currently on the back foot amid heightened uncertainties and challenging conditions. This follows a very weak RICS December report,” said Howard Archer, economist at the EY ITEM Club consultancy.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS’ chief economist, said December’s fall in price expectations was linked to Brexit uncertainty, which has deepened further since parliament rejected May’s deal.

GRAPHIC: UK housing sales expectations hit record low - RICS - tmsnrt.rs/2SWjq9e

“Looking a little further out, there is some comfort provided by the suggestion that transactions nationally should stabilise as some of the fog lifts, but that moment feels a way off for many respondents to the survey,” Rubinsohn said.

In a report in November, the Bank said a “disorderly” exit scenario — involving severe delays at UK borders and financial markets losing confidence in British institutions — could lead to sterling falling to almost the same value as the dollar, 6.5 percent inflation and a 30 percent fall in house prices.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday that sterling’s rise after the Brexit vote suggested investors now see less risk of a no-deal Brexit or the prospect of a delay, but added that he would not put much weight on these moves.

Wall Street rises with help from Netflix
RICS’ measure of house prices in December was its weakest since August 2012 at -19, below the median forecast of -13 in a Reuters poll of economists.

Prices were expected to remain flat over the next 12 months with the exception of London and south east where they have been falling, RICS said."

Fred - the update from Ibstock doesn't read too gloomily.