Anyone have idea as to why large drop to-day in relation to relatively low volume

Mixed results today for CEN's M6G in the European Phase 3 trial, failing to meet one of the endpoints.

Could necessitate a retrial imo.

Big question. In the face of a global "correction" how much is CENES really worth?

imho.jobi, the correction will have no lasting impact on cen sp. any stock specific news will move cen up or down regardless of wider market movements.

More news... longer lasting and less drugs needed than morphine. Bring it on... Again!

And the revised strategy has clearly been thought out following these delays - I like the approach in Europe of either selecting individual countries, or using the US as the master to gain euro approval.

And of course potentially using a larger partner.

Upbeat news from CeNeS. In addition to the clear nausea and vomiting reductions of over 25% announced last week, secondary data reveals that patients receiving M6G required over 20% less anti-emetic medication over the 0-24 hour period than those in the morphine group. This shows that not only does M6G induce significantly less nausea and vomiting than morphine, but also that the post-operative anti-emetic treatment required is considerably reduced.

The potential for reduced anti-emetic drug costs combined with the reduction in medical assistance and the improved patient comfort due to lower PONV supports CeNeS justification of a substantial price premium for M6G compared to morphine. In a nutshell these results are first class. To read the full report go to www.shareclubuk.co.uk The S.P. has move up over the last few days.

CeNeS preliminary results will be out on Wednesday 28th March.. On the same day the Company will be hosting an R&D presentation at the offices of Financial Dynamics.

Wait a bit, if the CeNeS drug is better than morphine then logically you can charge more, but the logic cannot be extended to making the patients happier with their lot......let's examine......the reason you go into hospital is to made better, you don't care about the process, only that after some time you'll be back to normal. That this drug (or that) is better is of no consequence to the patient - they'd prefer to be taking nothing. Now the costs: If using Morphine requires another drug and an extended stay in hospital this can be costed and if the CeNeS drug avoids this, that's a Hospital Bonus (remember the patient doesn't care)....so my guess is that the CeNeS drug can be sold at no more than 5-10% above the cost of morphine - but whilst this is higher, I doubt this is the "Subtantial price Premium" that Myway is suggesting...(( -or do you have some knowledge in this field, from other drug-pricing ))?

The good news is that CEN sp is falling....so anyone that believes the story can add to their holding with the good-news "outside" the current price. I'm guessing the Market wanted drug delivery yesterday.....
Further good news is that IF this drug is as good as indications are, then CEN should see a wide acceptance and cash-flow...forget the Premium price until the world is hooked! Pricing is a sensititive issue and taking the price as high as you can is only sensible if there is limited availability and you need to build a GMP plant; but I'm assuming someone like Cobra will do the production.

Well, it looks good to me and I've been holding for a few years.
Can anyone suggest what the sp will reach once the cash starts to flow...could we see a mere doubling? OR is something above 20p more likely? (=3x)

Hi Hangon.. As you know CeNeS is an emergin pharmaceutical company specialising in CNS drugs. It has four programmes in various stages of development, the most advanced being a morphine metabolite, M6G. Other projects include an NMDA antagonist in Phase II trials for neuropathic pain relief, a short-acting sedative for day-surgery, and a COMT programme for Parkinsons disease. To find out more visit www.shareclubuk.co.uk race to profits page.

The successful outcome should lead to a licensing agreement with a specialty pharmaceutical partner for M6G being struck later in 2007. However, there is also a wealth of potentially positive new flow set to arise from the remaining programmes during the year. All three products - CNS5156 for neuropathic pain, CNS7056B a sedative for day-case surgery and the COMT inhibitor for Parkinsons disease - could generate material news flow during the year.

Valuation suggested that M6G was worth 7.9p a share but, following this successful trial, now rises to 10.4p. This coupled with 4.2p for the remainder of the development portfolio, means that, after adjusting for the net cash position, R&D expenditure and G&A costs, now value CeSeN shares at 14.2p a share - up from 11.7p a share previously.

On the back of this.. Barclays Plc now has a total holding in CeNeS of 13.97%

CeNeS M6G. Since the announcement of the successful data significant interest has been expressed by Pharma companies in reviewing the large M6G data package that CeNeS has assembled. CeNeS is on record as saying that the company is confident that agreements can be finalised with partner(s) based on the existing set of clinical trial data. Concluding these deals will generate short term income and recurring revenue streams from a successful product launch in the future.

CeNeS key factor Appoints Rodman & Renshaw to assist in partnering of M6G the US based healthcare specialist investment bank, to assist in the partnering of morphine-6-glucuronide ("M6G"), its novel drug for the treatment of post-operative pain. This is indeed first class news, proving that the company is now ready to take on a partner to market M6G

The full report plus other news can be found at www.shareclubuk.co.uk Leo Slepak Managing Director (M&A and Licensing Group) of Rodman & Renshaw, is on record as saying that M6G should translate into a commercially valuable drug.

Yes, yes, yes...I hold but the sp is telling us something - that the Deal is not exactly forthcoming.....now it really depends on this success doesn't it?...for without that management is shown to be ineffective and a waste of space, as far as investors are concerned.
Every piece of good news moves the price hardly at all....CEN needs to move towards sales-volume. A weak sp may give the wrong signals to a potential partner - that they don't need to pay much for a large slice of the action...that would be a pity...but I'm getting the impression the Management here is unable to create value.

Hi Hangon.. I have spent time in Hospital this year.. CeNeS has proven that M6G cuts back on pain.. To me thats the best reason for its use.. The key to sales is less pain more gain

CeNeS Directors have had options granted over their share holdings:

Director: Neil Clark. Number of Ordinary Shares over which 1,000,000
Exercise price in pence: 6 pence Date of grant: 30.03.07 Period of exercise: 3 years Total number of Ordinary Shares over which options held following this
notification: 8,685,424

Director: Alan Goodman. Number of Ordinary Shares over which options granted: 1,000,000 Exercise price in pence: 6 pence Date of grant: 30.03.07
Period of exercise: 3 years Total number of Ordinary Shares over which options held following this notification: 7,654,621.

Both Neil Clark and Alan Goodman, options are subject to performance targets, related to S.P. over three years. This is just what I like to see Directors making a commitment to business forecasts.

Headline news CeNeS Licenses New Intravenous Anaesthetic to Ono in Japan. At this mornings meeting at shareclubuk.co.uk this was voted as an excellent move for the company.

CNS-7056 is a new short-acting general anaesthetic and sedative that acts on
GABAA receptors. Pre-clinical studies demonstrate that, after intravenous
administration, the compound rapidly induces deep sedation which is maintained
during continuous administration. Importantly the sedative effects rapidly
disappear after cessation of administration. The rapid offset of effect of the
compound is due to its metabolism by esterase enzymes that are widely
distributed throughout the body. Therefore it is anticipated that CNS-7056 can be clinically developed as a sedative agent for the induction and maintenance of anaesthesia and as a sedative for mechanical ventilation in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

COULD this be it? CeNeS founder, Alan Goodman reckons so, that we are about to see the drug company he founded a decade ago come good, following the biggest deal in its history.

The announcement was made yesterday (Monday, 06 August), and almost slipped by unnoticed due to a coyness about the numbers, but a source close to the company indicated that this latest deal, with Japanese firm, Ono Pharma, is worth 70m - four times the current value of CeNeS on the stock market.

The deal involves selling exclusive rights to Ono on CeNeS new general anaesthetic and short-term sedative, code-named CNS-7056.

Upfront cash, plus milestone payments and royalties are all part of the deal, yet CeNeS gets to keep the rest of the world.

"I have worked on this deal for a year," Dr Goodman said, "and it really is a cracking one as we haven't sold the silver, Ono has just bought the rights to Japan.

"I expect to be able to sell the rest of the world rights for three or four times the amount agreed with Ono."

CeNeS' rollercoaster history has seen the Histon-based company clinging on by its fingernails at times, with money running short at one point and it being the innocent victim of another biotech firm's collapse; but in recent years there has been little but positive newsflow as the company's pipeline of drugs, including a replacement for morphine, have steadily progressed through clinical trials. Yet, the share price has remained flat.

Asked whether he thought that CeNeS moment had, at last, come, Dr Goodman said: "I am hoping so, because I can't see what more I can do.

"If it doesn't happen in the next six months I shall retire."

But it's obvious he does not expect to be hanging up his pipettes: "I am extremely happy with this latest deal. It's all go now," he said. "Yes, it's the biggest deal in the company's history, and I have got more up my sleeve.

"Eventually, people are going to wake up to the huge value in this company."


07 August 2007

This is from the Cambridge evening news. Make of it what you will.

As that news article states, if of course correct, if the one deal with Japan is worth 70M then globally this is worth a phenominal figure.Previous news has not been the best and subsequently the stock has dropped to it's present valuation but everyone knows with drug companies that it may only take one success to make this into a giant success.

Ono Pharma must have great faith in this drug to be prepared to invest such a sum. Again we must take into account milestones must be reached in order to receive the payments and now it is a case of risk vs reward.

If, as you say moneyman, the information is correct, this is a company-transforming deal.

Why wasnt the numbers released with the announcement at the moment its all speculation.

I think current Market turmoil is also affecting the sp - but the killer (for me investing more, even at this price), is the "6-months"
-trouble with such a time-scale is they tend to become 'elastic' and it might become 1-year.....meanwhile, the sp falters on no-news.

Do you guys think this really is the start of something big, or are you being warmed by company chatter?

I'm none too keen on Options as these are a win-win for Execs - only if they use their own money will I take note - - - -and it needs to be minimum 50k-worth.

I'm open minded hangon. I've been in these a while now in the belief that they'll come good. I still think that and am happy to hold although I'd like to see a little positive SP action every now and again!

precisely! credibility will only be gained if management believe risk/reward is in their favour and back cen out of their own pockets.