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Investing in ofex market - would you..........??? (OFEX)     

hawick - 12 Mar 2004 15:13

Invest? If not.........What are your reasons? Lack of liquidity? Fear of a 'different' marketplace? Perhaps you feel wary as you feel you don't yet understand how it works, or your broker is either negative, or doesn't trade Ofex shares.
(Don't worry, most people have never heard of Ofex - perhaps that in itself is a reason!).
Are you then a 'lurker' who'd like to give it a go but aren't sure?

What is it that would convince you to finally give it a go, to buy your first ever ofex share? Or would you never do it?

Do tell! And do ask any questions you have. They don't bite!

Jumpin - 25 Mar 2004 23:15 - 15 of 69

No, I can think of easier ways of losing money

ThirdEye - 25 Mar 2004 23:30 - 16 of 69

Up 300% from float & the boss refused a bid at 24p, as he knows there is growth to come.

Paid off his mortgage, as he only takes a small salary...who can blame him.


+ the sales have now finished.


A task.....


Find me better compound growth....85% at the moment & it's due to get better :-)

goldfinger - 26 Mar 2004 01:36 - 17 of 69

And the boss as just sold 700,000 quids worth of shares, plus his wife has been dipping in aswell. Sorry but smaller companies like this market cap circa 9 million are greatly exposed when we have the geopolitical events going off at the moment plus theres the much talked about consumer bubble burst about to happen any day now, and interest rates on the rise.(interest rate rises affect all financial firms adversley ive worked in the Banking Industry, dont let anyone tell you any different).

No there not for me, no liquidity, hardly budge. Go for days and weeks on end without moving. Sorry doesnt interest me I prefer a little more excitement.

And of course you will have heard of the problems that have hit ofex over the last few weeks, losing out on the regional exchanges, Luke Johnsone leaving after only a few weeks with Ofex, the new MMS put back at least 2 months, share price of ofex stock fallen.

Good luck to holders though, you must be very very patient people indeed, you certainly have my respect for this aspect.

cheers GF.



ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 07:02 - 18 of 69

Find me better compound growth....85% at the moment & it's due to get better :-)

No answer then?


goldfinger you got involved in Telecom Plus & Sportingbet after they left Ofex, wow could have bought Telecom plus for 30p on Ofex.....maybe you will buy Britannia over 1 when it's on AIM.

38 - 26 Mar 2004 11:16 - 19 of 69

GF raises some good points. Offex and Aim are traditionally treated as high risk because of the liquidity issues and the lacket of analyst coverage.

I think, though, that brokers treat them as higher risk because they are riskier for the broker. They call for good fundamental research and a lot of brokers don't want to commit the time or energy and would rather follow the latest research note from DKW or whoever. They get a bit of cover from that if it goes pear shaped.

If you look at the way the market has moved over the last few weeks aim companies have, as G.F. says, hardly budged and they are for the patient. But then isn't there some maxim about not looking at equity investment for less than a 5 year term ? I know that most people here are frequent traders but there is a distinction between investing and trading.

Not that I advocating puting the crown jewels into 2 offex companies, but a good spread along with other holdings can't hurt.

Punting on a large cap is essentially betting against 300 analysts who are frankly better trained and have more time than me. They live there lives for their sectors. Okay, markets aren't efficient, and nor am I, but I think that there are better opportunities to identify value in the small caps.

Hey ho. Off the soap box now.

38 - 26 Mar 2004 11:22 - 20 of 69

And for those having a very slow day:


Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of ones judgement, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees

It is the long term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion. If he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which
is very likely, he will not receive much mercy. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

J.M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936.

ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 11:22 - 21 of 69

But Ofex is about to become like AIM, 4 market makers by 2004 end......many commentators are catching on.

It's only for those who like high risk/high rewards, those who like safety, yield and a steady 20% pa gain on average, should stick with the blue chips!

goldfinger - 26 Mar 2004 13:14 - 22 of 69

Not sorry not for me. Not regulated enough too much of this kind of thing happens which as just hapened in last few days...............

Over on Ofex, currency exchange group 4Less placed 2.8 million shares at 60p and that managing director Charles McLeod had dumped 450,000 shares at the same price ahead of a move to AIM. Since the mid-price ahead of the news was 87.5p the placing seems at a low level but the company - in a rare moment of corporate honesty - told free to use website Unquoted-Analyst.com that its shares were simply overvalued at 87.5p. They were 5p less overvalued by the close." Just think from 87.5p to 55p, - scandal.

If this happened on aim or main market there would be a shareholder rebellion, I feel sorry for those investors who have lost so much on this company.

cheers Gf.

hawick - 26 Mar 2004 13:44 - 23 of 69

Afraid it does suggest that there is little interest here. I said there were bargains there on ofex, but i certainly do not think Britannia is one of them.

All these director sales tell a story, that company will be hurt by rising interest rates and the claimed conservative accounting - all that means is that the problems will take longer to show through and the inexperienced might well be left holding the baby, when the problems become all too apparent. And given that even several FTSE 100 financial stocks trade on single figure p/es difficult to imagine Britannia meriting a comparable rating, let alone its current premium - on a more competitive market. The 'growth' is from a chronically low base and hollow claims like 'it's going to get better' or 'more to come' do not help intelligent or mature investment decisions.

And if you watch commercial tv for more than 20 minutes you are almost guaranteed to see adverts offering better rates (Britannia verge on the shark imho, over 30%) from more established companies - cut throat competition that will eventually tell on such a small concern.

And goldfinger makes a very valuable point: ofex companies like 4less and Britannia likely to suffer from competitive mms as so many share sales and Gerald Ratner style comments about overvaluation (though fair play for honesty I guess!) would lead to markdowns. managements in many ofex companies have much to learn about the real commercial world!

If you are looking for a good ofex share, Oakdene expects to make 3 million+ on a p/e of under 4.

vasey - 26 Mar 2004 13:51 - 24 of 69

Just found this thread and like hawick, I have a small stake in MIB (Millbrook Scientific Instruments) which I have held for almost 3 years under the EIS government scheme. It is currently sheltering some CGT.

I've met the management many times, spoken to the boss (Peter Stefanini)regularly and attending the AGMs. Good company and still happy to hold.

Recommend anyone who is interested to visit ofex.com and read through MIB's news section. They are selling machines at good profit margins and the financials are pretty good.

princess - 26 Mar 2004 14:25 - 25 of 69

GF How do you rate OFX as a company at the moment? I've got a few shares tucked away, but getting fed up watching them drop. I didn't realise that L Johnson had left, or that the addition of more MMs had been delayed.

Are they still a good mid/long term hold?

Thanks

Princess

ajren - 26 Mar 2004 15:02 - 26 of 69

Interesting sites for basic information :-

www.ofex.com

www.halifax.co.uk/home/index.shtml.Click sharedealing.Click jargonbuster and
enter ofex.

rgds aj

ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 15:58 - 27 of 69

Other than mining stocks, Britannia probably has more interested investors than any other stock on OFex, those who say it's illiquid should check the graphs on www.ofex.com & then check highly illiquid GSC property with about 2 trades per month, which is mentioned in a positive light in this thread....proof in the pudding.

hawick - 26 Mar 2004 16:11 - 28 of 69

GSC is far better value (35% below nav) precisely because it's less well known at this stage.

That's the beauty of the real undiscovered shares such as Millbrook, Oakdene and GSC.

Britannia looks exposed now and certainly overvalued, as competition fears and interest rates bite deeper and deeper.

ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 16:17 - 29 of 69

GSC has 35m borrowings & a market cap of what 5m?

Oh dear if property sentinment changes very very risky.


As for Britannia next three years profits virtually locked in.


85% compound growth, and that's due to improve as they have fixed costs, anything over 12m loan books falls straight to the bottom line.

No dependency on the property market, which some commentators say is due for a correction.

RoyMarklove - 26 Mar 2004 16:18 - 30 of 69

Ofex I think is OK if you have a small amount of cash you do not mind tying up for some time. It is not a get rich quick market because a lot of the companies are start up companies. Not a market to risk a lot of money in. I think qonnectis is one to watch, certainly not a market to invest in if you are not prepared to wait, or even lose your investment.On the other hand there are excellent gains to be made if you can pick the right stock

ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 16:21 - 31 of 69

Well Roy I have bought 140,000 Britannia at an average of 10.1p, so 42,000 clear profit on the 140,000 & have added a further 30,000 since, I expect them to get to one pound.


That's good enough profit for me.....your right though you should be prepared to lose your investment, but the risk/reward if you study carefully is good in a bull market.


goldfinger - 26 Mar 2004 16:22 - 32 of 69

Princess I have to say that I was an Ofex convert only a few months back and if you look on the GF thread you will see that and I was enthusiastic for a new beginning with new MMs etc, but as I have posted earlier things have started to go worringly wrong for that market. LUke Johnsone as gone to take over at channel 4.

I have been monitoring it from the beginning of the year and I have to say in lay mans terms 'I have found it to be a dead loss'. I cannnot give you buy or sell advice but suffice to say I would not be buyinging into the Ofex stock itself. There are one or two good shares on there as vasey as pointed out but they are very few and far between. The good ones tend to want to switch over to Aim, but just look what can happen when that cones about with the 4 less group, would you wish to see your investment drop within a few hours from 86p to just 55p and thats just on what was supposed to be a positive switch from one market to the other.

Its all very well people pointing out with the late introduction of the MMs ( and I hear one of them maybe pulling the plug now)to Ofex that it will be a more liquid market and hence their argument is that prices will go up far quicker but dont forget they will also aswell fall more quickly. Take for example Britannia a share mentioned by a previous poster, the boss and his wife together have sold over 700 thousand of these on 6 visits and the price didnt budge one jot on any visit, if that same thing happened on Aim or the ofex market with new MMs the share price would have been slaughtered no doubts about that.

Also this week or last week but I can find it, I saw a comment on UQ.com where yes where not one share had been traded before 9am, then came 10am still the same, and then came 11am still the same at approx 11.20am they got the first trade through buy or sell on that market.

Could you really put up with that?, I know I couldnt.

Not only that but you on quite a frequent basis get reports were investors cant even buy 500 worth of stock, in fact to build a position just think how much it is going to cost you in brokers fees and tax both buying and then trying to sell them and it is a big if , if you want to sell a decent quantity.

Please check it out, but I for one will now give it a wide berth.

Good luck.

cheers GF.

hawick - 26 Mar 2004 16:24 - 33 of 69

GSC assets over 47 million. Borrowings fixed over 25 years. I am a big fan. Low risk unless you think commercial property will crash. Can't see that with new sites so hard to get, the demand for existing sites likely to outstrip supply, squeezing prices ever higher.

Nearest competitor on Aim trading at premium to nav.

90% of GSC clientelle are FTSE 350 companies or government. Unusually high quality for an ofex company.

Cash in bank 5 million against market cap 6.5 million. Strong buy. Thanks for highlighting it Third Eye, though your numbers are a bit off.

Agreed Roy.

As an investment don't like OFX btw, negative nav.

ThirdEye - 26 Mar 2004 16:24 - 34 of 69

Goldfinger said:
The good ones tend to want to switch over to Aim, but just look what can happen when that cones about with the 4 less group, would you wish to see your investment drop within a few hours from 86p to just 55p


4 Less group is trading at 80.5p you must try not to mislead goldfinger....facts on www.ofex.com
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