Tom hougards email analysis and thoughts for today.
rgds
zarif

Good morning,




What an amazing trading day. The market held the 1132 area and turned on a dime. The target of 1144 area was calculated using a very simple 1 to 1 wave advancement technique and it was hit spot on at 1145.25.



It is always difficult for me to write the analysis after a big rally on Wall Street. Few would like to buy it here as they feel they have missed the boat. Given the fact that we have hit a major target in the market we should be short against 1145. This is a strategy that you can employ but it is probably not very wise. I am fairly certain that the market will have a stab at the 1148 area and depending on momentum we could see higher prices going into month end and the Fed meeting in a couple of days. In other words I dont think the market will stop here. It seemed strong to me yesterday and there was a real concerted effort to mark up the names I mentioned yesterday. Ebay, IBM, GE and INTC were all trading higher on the day. These stocks are always worth watching for a bit of tape manipulation before the important quarter-end mark to market for institutions.



One counter argument that could be made is the spike I was talking about yesterday. Last night could have been it. I was looking for a spike into the major square out of the all time high in calendar days. This came in last night or early today. Momentum will be the key but a move below 1138 will send a cold shiver down the bulls spine and will most likely cause more selling. That would be a major disappointment to the bulls.



So to conclude: we hit a major target last night on the dot. When targets are met the market sometimes lingers around before turning, while at other times they turn promptly. In this case I will favour no turn at all. I think after basing for as long as we have the market could move higher over the coming day or two before turning. You may want to consider a few shorts with tight stops but I would not fight the tape if we are making new highs on the day after 19:00 UK time. I got a nice turn today around 18:00 UK time and I will in case we are moving higher consider a short day trade position around this time frame.



I shall however not be trading the market this morning. I am going to my first Wimbledon experience and luckily it is not raining today in London J

Tom

Hi all,Fundamentalist:HBOS I have for 30yrs played the Banks(more than any other sector)by dipping in on corrections.This has proved successful both in gains and reasonable divi's.This morning I have picked up both HBOS&BARC at their lows so far today.If they go down further shall keep picking up.I play the banks as its always only a matter of time before you gain a profit/divi well in excess of B/society returns.On another matter have you looked at LGEN/AL.both seem to be holding firm,LGEN especially to me looks interesting having bucked going back to 86/87p range.Half the battle is to have enough liquid funds to pick up more if the price falls further.

Anyone think this looks promising if it gets through 4520 resistance?

Melnibone
Looking at the MACD indicator for HBOS I note that a rise has mostly been pre-empted by the MACD crossing up through the EMA. This is just one indicator and it alone is probably not sufficient to make an investment decission but it is a useful indication as to when the direction is likely to change.
I feel sure that you will be aware of this but it may prove useful to some others.
opto

very nice martini.

larger buy on oah it seems - long term investment.

Does anyone know if you can get dax & cac40 index charts on am?

Velocity:
try this site aswell. its free and quite good no pop-ups etc. Does the indexes, oil, gold, forex etc

www.livecharts.co.uk



rgds
zarif

Thanks zarif