I(14);BBI(3,6,12)&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&XCycle=&XFormat="/>

Time is at a premium at the moment, (the cricket is on)so I will take the lazy way out on recommending this one and just copy the last brokers note, I do expect a new one out any day with todays excelent news. Heres the Broker Buy note from Evo Bee Greg.....
The group have (sic) recently announced the acquisition of Extreme Beverage Company. The merger rationale seems excellent, especially given the nature and appeal of both the Players Extreme and Blavod brands to similar markets whilst the depth of Extreme�s distribution network in the US will give Blavod the much needed platform from which to grow. The management team is headed up by CEO Jeff Hopmayer, the original founder of Extreme Beverage. He is a proven entrepreneur with a very strong track record.



The US remains the only major untapped market for Blavod but also represents the biggest scope for potential especially given that the US is the most important vodka market in the world. In addition flavoured and ultra-premium vodkas are predicted to enjoy the greatest future growth with flavoured vodka now accounting for over 5% of the total vodka market.

Our forecasts are based on relatively conservative assumptions and are primarily driven off our own estimates of case sales. For the year to March 2004 we expect the total number of cases sold to be in the region of 49,000 (this is based on a full 12-month trading period from Blavod but only includes Extreme�s trading period from the 20th January) and expect this to grow to 229,000 in 2004/05e. Gross margin of c33% is low compared to the industry average of c60% and we expect the gross margin to grow as the group realises further cost efficiencies. Our forecasts assume breakeven in 2005/06e.

Valuation is less straightforward and historically the main valuation metric has been industry exit multiples for previous transactions and case sale ratios. These give a range of between 55p and 80p a share. However, there are risks and the group is still in the early stages of growing both the Blavod and Players Extreme brands and as such our price target of 55p reflects the lower end of our range. As the strength of the brands grow and they become more of a strategic asset, this could move the valuation towards the top end of our range in line with our DCF value of 85p. This is an appealing and attractive growth story."

Year to March 31st Sales (� million) Pre-Tax Profit (�million) Earnings Per Share (p)
2004E 1.8 -1.3 -5.4
2005E 9.5 -2.9 -4.7
2006E 17.9 0.3 0.4

Nb, the company have gone some way today to getting a foothold in the US market , see todays RNS on next post.

cheers GF.

WOW, many thanks Sue Helen for that 85p price target cant be bad and the company has about 7.5 million cash on its books.

cheers GF.

Glad to help Goldfinger!

The full note from the broker..............

5 August 2004
Blavod Extreme Spirits (BES) Buy (unchanged)

Mkt cap: 22m Net cash: 7m Final Results Price/Target: 33.5p/55p

Thats the Spirit!
The final results are ahead of our expectations, whilst the group has also
announced a redesign of the Players Extreme product range as well as the
introduction of two new flavours which will help drive future growth.
The final results for the year ended 31st March 2004 are ahead of our
expectations with the number of total case sales of 52,000 exceeding our
forecast of 49,000. As had been expected, this was based on a full 12-month
trading period from Blavod Black Vodka plc but only includes Extreme
Beverage Companys trading period from the 20th January. Turnover grew
21% to 1.82m and the overall loss before tax (pre-exceptional, preamortisation)
of 0.99m was less than our forecast loss of 1.26m helped by
lower than expected marketing costs. The groups closing cash position of
7.3m was substantially higher than our forecast of 5.8m. An exceptional
item of 0.87m relates to the write-down of old stock as the group moved to
a new product design, although we are confident that over the year, c0.2m
of this can be recouped. In addition to this, the group has also announced
that it has signed a deal to represent a number of Italian wine producers in
the United States, which follows on from the recent announcement that it has
added Italian wine producers Baroncini and Bruno Rocca to its growing
distribution network.
Blavod (000m) Actual Forecast %
Cases Sold 52,213 49,000 6.6%
Revenues 1,825 1,813 0.7%
Gross Profit 647 598 8.2%
EBITDA* -1,047 -1,280 18.2%
Pre-tax Profit* -993 -1,264 21.0%
EPS (p)* -3.6 -5.4 33.0%
Net Cash at Year
End
7,293 5,836 25.0%
Source: EVBG estimates and company data * pre-exceptional pre-amortisation
The company has continued to see satisfactory progress in key markets for
Blavod Black Vodka (BBV), particularly in the UK, Russia and European
Duty Free and the group is now providing real distribution access for BBV to
key US wholesalers. The US represents the biggest scope for potential for
BBV, especially given that the US is the most important vodka market in the
world and we expect BBV sales to the US over the next 12 months to
increase. This is supported by the recent announcement that BBV had
received a listing agreement with Costco Wholesale Club, which is the
largest retailer of wine and spirits in the US. Costco will initially only stock
BBV and distribution is expected to be in place by October 1, 2004. Whilst
Results are ahead of expectations
The group are creating a firm base
from which to grow sales of Blavod
Black Vodka
BLAVOD EXTREME SPIRITS
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Source: DATASTREAM
5 August 2004

Initial distribution will be in Northern California, we expect this to expand
throughout Costco's distribution network in due course. The agreement is
also likely to raise the profile of BBV in the US as management focus on
increasing the distribution of the brand.
In terms of the Players Extreme products (PE), the group has announced a
new look for the range which is intended to widen their consumer base,
improve the margin and position the product for more international
acceptability. The redesigned bottles have been well received by the
distributors and have started shipping, whilst the addition of new flavours
in the form of a Caramel Vodka and a Mango Rum should help bolster
growth. Along with the introduction of new flavours, the group are no
longer carrying the PE base rum or gin products. Until recently, the
manufacturing of PE took place in the US. However, production has now
moved across to the UK and will be manufactured and bottled at the
Hayman Distillery. This will ultimately mean that PE will be imported into
the US thus commanding a better premium.
In terms of trading and forecasts, we estimate that the group has lost c2
months of trading in PE in switching to the new bottle design and case
volumes have also been impacted by the exit of PE base rum and gin. As a
result, we are maintaining our full year forecast of 229,000 case sales until
there is greater visibility on the success of the new design. Going forward,
we expect marketing costs to represent about 45% of sales in 2004/05e
dropping off to only 27% of sales in 2005/6e. We still expect an operating
loss of -3.1m in 2004/05e, but expect the group to break even in 2005/06e as
the marketing costs stabilise and the sales volume increases.
Valuation is less straightforward and historically the main valuation metric
has been industry exit multiples for previous transactions and case sale
ratios. These give a range of between 55p and 80p a share. However, there
are risks and the group is still in the early stages of growing both the BBV
and PE brands and as such our price target of 55p reflects the lower end of
our range. As the strength of the brands grows and they become more of a
strategic asset, this could move the valuation towards the top end of our
range in line with our DCF value of 85p.
Assad Malic +44 (0)20 7071 4407 assad.malic@evbg.com EVBG is broker to Blavod Extreme Spirits
Year end Sales (m) EBITDA (m) PTP (m) EPS (p) PER (x) Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Revised?
03/04A 1.8 -1.0 -0.99 -3.6 - - -
03/05E 9.5 -2.9 -3.0 -4.7 - - - No
03/06E 17.9. 0.6 0.3 0.4 84 - 24.3 No

cheers GF.

shares mag makes this one a sell.

Is it the AGM today? Isn't it normal for the CEO/Chairman to release an AGM statement?

GF, are you still in these? Looking at the last RNS from the 12th, and reading of a rumour of a big buyer about, and the fact that the price is so low - I'd say its a buy right now.

Yes still in. Not temped to add just yet but feel this kind of stock will go up with the increased advertising going up to xmas.

cheers GF.

And wow did it just...........................

Blavod Extreme Spirits gained almost 30% at 22p after a trading update showed Q3 case shipments had jumped 97%.

cheers GF.

Do you have any updated research from Evolution BG

Will have a look.

cheers GF.

RORO nothing out yet but I expect there will be very soon. Please remind me If I forget. Last note was 3/12/2004.

cheers GF.

Bought back into these today. Still cheap and now gaining interest and momentum.

GF thanks I will

Encouraging news that GAM and Artemis have bought shares for their funds.

Not sure what to make of the chart to be honest.

The downtrend may have been broken, provided it holds, otherwise any retracement could well put it back into the channel again.

You've got a "Golden Cross" coming up with your M/A's and the MACD giving positive signals, plus RSI divergence.
Add in the other news.
Sit back and enjoy the ride.
May the Devil take the back seat!

Appointment of new chairman with vast experience of the American market looks good for BES.

Blavod Extreme Spirits names Colin Campbell as new non-exec chairman
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Blavod Extreme Spirits PLC, the maker of the Blavod Black Vodka and the Players Extreme line of vodkas and rums, said it appointed Colin Campbell as non-executive chairman with effect from Jan 27.

Campbell succeeds Allan Shiach, who is retiring.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

ak/

petob,

I thought a 'golden x' was the 50 dma line crossing the 200 dma line when both are travelling upwards?

The chart above shows the 9 dma crossing the 50dma, hardly the same thing???

Or am i missing something???