The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

I have a sell limit of 5.00, would hate to miss the spike through working when the rns are announced! This waiting reminds me of the birth of our daughter :o).

A post from a sensible guy on the other side, thought it may be of interest and its reads well.




Hi all!

There seems to be some confusion here over what exactly PET is after at the moment.

In Iraq there are 3 contracts currently up for grabs

Each is for engineering works on oilfields to each produce approx 100,000 bbpd
these are on a cost plus basis and that is it.

The real interest is if we get a share of any oil produced from these fields i excess of 100,000 bbpd. Current thought is we are aiming to get 30% of any extra production.

The first 2 tenders should have been dealt with back in October when we had teams flying into Dublin then Amman. It didn't happen and a resubmission was asked for at the last minute. The thought was that PET had tried to include a share of the production then and Iraq had probably thought it worth having a look at the idea by way or re-submission of tenders. The first 2 have now been submitted and we await the answer.

The third contract was delayed but will be submitted by the 15th Dec.

Each contract win is generally thought to be worth about 1.50 to PETs SP.

These contracts will not make PET a Cairn as we will not "own" the oil in the ground as Cairn does. However if we get the share of production it will help.

Sector 6 currently probably worth 60p to the SP on rights alone though debateable. This could be the way PET grows faster than Cairn we have had reports that adjacent sectors have oil and we could be looking at a mega field. Such fields have not been discovered since the 70's. The SP could reach dizzy heights if this comes good. We have done the seismics and DH feels by drilling 4 wells we will hit oil with 3 at least.

Oil demand


Currently oild demand is growing at 1m bbpd each year. However NON OPEC oil production is shrinking by 1mbbpd. Conclusion OPEC eeds to produce 2 mbbpd extra each year into the future. Currently OPEC is producing at 97% capacity and even Iraq is being conservative about how much more oil they can produce short term.

Result PET is poised with a once in a life time opportunity to gain contracts which could lead to more contract awards now and in the future. Sector 6 could make it very very large and greater than Cairn. Oh and Shell will run out of oil in 10 years. Then again PET could crumble to 30p and do very little.

i for one would be most happy with an additional PET worth of 1.50 per contract and would happily settle for two in the short term! However this does not, i feel, take into further consideration what is being tied up and rubber stamped in Jordan!

Buys are 70k ahead of sells and still the MM's price PET down !

I can only remember sells outweighing buys on one occasion out of the last 10 days but consistently the MM's mark the stock down unless the buys heavily outweigh the sells (> 200k more buys than sells). As usual i think they're trying to accumulate stock before any announcement even though buying patterns indicate the price should be rising not falling !

Looking over the last 8 days buys out weigh sells by 1.6m, as for the fall it could be anything from Gartmore reducing again and locking in profit, or simple MM tactics, a couple of things are certain, we shall find out soon enough if it were Gartmore through an RNS, when the trade is complete, and with the impending news from Jordan and Iraq just around the corner, any small investor would be nuts to try and sell and buy back at a lower price, the MM's have gotten back to the usual 5 pence spread. We have been waiting for a while, what is another couple of weeks, I've split my portfolio between NBR & PET, and I have a feeling I shall be enjoying a VERY merry christmas this year!!!!

good luck to all PET holders


Tokyo

tokyo,
will get back to you re iii when i get a minute, not had much time today.
cheers,
dexter


ps. i mean fyb

OK I've done it again, my final top up (perhaps?) 10,888
I shall be screen watching on Monday!!!!!


Tokyo

tokyo,
just had a call from DH, the whole deal is down the pan !!!!!!!!!.
sorry could`nt post sooner!!!!!!.
dexter

dexter01 joke or not????????

it must have been a conference call cose I got the same message, why didn't Tokyo get the call

dexter01????

bad joke or what

hahaha Dextor/watcher - Yes must have missed that call, I shall very much be looking forward to next week, no prizes for guessing what I shall be dreaming about over the weekend!!!! Come on PET!!!!!

Tokyo

And I thought Tokyo was our inside man! lol! The question is - sick joke or really sick?

Eric

at the end of today I am looking forward to another guiness weekend, they come round pretty fast. maybe monday will change my drink to bubblie, have a good one PET fans

watcher

You lot are all mad on this board and I should know!

Brrrrip! brrrr, brrrrrrr, bripppp!

There are two threads on advfn going strong all echoing strong Pet positive thoughts ( in between the continual slagging off of posters)

I am now at high confidence level! with a whiff of childish excitement too! Like you all i will be glued to the screen!

Good luck to all

EWRobson

I took your advice.

Good luck to all of us poor people.

OK you guys have convinced me...this is just too good an opportuity to miss out on. I'm in for 4K. Modest I know but i'm a poor pensioner and can't afford to lose more.
Good luck to all.
Ruthie

guys a 150k T trade at 100.00, ideas please?, thanks!!!!