I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

Wondering if EMG is going to fall back into the shallower channel at 571p or even fall as far as the 200MA at 540p, think my guess would be the shallower channel.

pth

monday morning is likely to be pretty bloody so the likes of DOO could tumble sharply ........ i know PT reckons 240/245 to be the bottom target, but if the market does not bounce quickly, then lower still could be the order of the day.

for myself, i am very glad indeed i took some hefty profits last week while i was away and i confess the turbulence of the current markets does give me cause for concern as, from memory, this sort of nonsense is often the prelude to rather more prolonged nastiness.

Hope you're right PTH about EMG as have just got in again. I don't know why but I think it's going to bounce robably just wishful thinking. Do see what you mean about the shallower channel

That's Probably not robably

Maggie I hope for your sake (=profits) it stays in this upper channel, but when taking the DOW fall on Friday into consideration (although there was a recovery) the FTSE and other Indices by association may well take a whack tomorrow. Like many I'm waiting for the 'correction' to take place and I am hesitant to be bullish on most stocks at the moment.

pth

PS And what's wrong with robably? :))

pth
May I take you back to your original posts and ask your views on this.
A few years ago now I attended a few lectures given by the American guru Chris Manning. His use of RSI and EMA's was quite simple, using a 21 day RSI and 10 and 20 day EMA's he advised that when the RSI moved upward through 50 it was basically a buy, but in conjunction with the 10 day EMA moving above the 20 day EMA and staying above it, and when moving down through 50 not a buy but a sell. The moving averages tend to lag on the sell side, I found the best time to sell was when the RSI had peaked and was staring to retreat I found the first part of the strategy to be quite accurate. His MACD settings for this strategy were 5,35,5.
Look forward to your reply SD

i took even more money off the table today (sold CSR at a good profit - 3rd time since start of year from memory).... "Why?" you may ask ....... because (1) the markets are churning wildly and (2) DOW is very close to a very strong resistance at 14400 ...... all this indicates to me that the markets may well run into a very sharp sell-off ...... i shall be delighted to be proved wrong and find that DOW rockets to 15000 and onwards and that FTSE ignores the imminent rate rise and the prospect of GB being elected with inevitable tax hikes following ..... any contrary views to mine?

Nope :)

SD (haven't seen you posting for a while, hope all is well).

I will be totally honest and say that I haven't (as yet) paid a huge amount of attention to MAa whether they be simple or expotential. I know many do and it is perhaps something I should study to a greater degree. As you have probably noticed I tend to rely on trends and the support or resistance they provide. In order to judge whether these lines of support or res will hold I am currently drawn towards both the RSI and MACD to help make a decision. I am acutely conscious that I need to expand my armoury, but as always it takes time to back test a variety of methods to see if they actually work. My first reaction to using 10 and 20EMAs is that there could be an awful lot of whipsaws generating false signals. Incorporating the RSI level of 50 as a determinging factor is an interesting one and I think merits further study. I would also suggest that this method would work well with trending stocks, but not with stocks trading sideways, again becuase of false signals. As always some indicators work well with trending stiocks and others do not.

Not sure if any of that helps SD, I have just scrolled through a few charts with 10 and 20 MAs and pretty much as I thought, false signals are much more prevalent with non trending stocks even when using the RSI as further confirmation of buy or sell, especially if there is a spike.

pth

SD

Just as an addendum to my last post, for the rest of the year I am setting myself a project in which I hope to identify 50 stocks (maybe less) where I can formulate a trading strategy for each one, ie, the best combination of indicators, trends MAs etc which offer the highest success percentage. I'm sure it is nothing that hasn't been done before, but rather than using the same settings for all stocks, I want to find settings for individual stocks. It may be that some will only need tweaking, but I am sure others will need significant changes. It will take a while to back test each one, but I hope it will be a worthwhile exercise. My problem with investing is I keep changing my mind as what I prefer to do, FX, Betting Exchanges, long term investing, medium or shert term trading. I'm pretty settled on short term trading, roughly 1 - 14 days, now I need a robust strategy to make it work as often as I can. Mind you I haven't done too badly over the last few weeks :))

maggie, nice to see EMG bounce off the bottom of the steeper channel, also replicated by a bounce off the RSI :)

Just been trawling through a few charts, anyone looking for a medium term short, take a look at Acambis (ACM). Might be a bit risky though, management are promising good things ahead, but then don't they always ;)

Fingers and everything else crossed. Your project sounds very interesting, what do you call medium term? Do you always close in the 14 days even if the share doesn't do as you predicted? My problem is cutting my losses hence short term trading turns into medium to long term investing :((( But I haven't been doing this for very long still very much learning, the hard way!!!

Cynic and PT, agreed, many are nervous regarding the overall situation. As a result I have recently taken out some long S/Bs on cable. If you guys look at the history, I think you'll agree, the charts look very promising. Cheers

pth
Thank you for your concern, the short story is last year wife collapsed taken to hospital, went with her and in hosp had nose bleed, taken to anesthetic room and given a jab which provoked a cardiac arrest,got the ticker going in 2 min 40 seconds and spent the next 3 weeks in hosp. recovery after takes a long time and appetite for the market wanes!!!
However, agree that false starts are frequent in ranging stocks but ranging stocks tend to stay below the 50 RSI or hover around it. The old saying the trend is your friend is a valuable one. Manning always said after the crossing wait 2/3 days to confirm trend, and move the stop loss up to the base of the last pullback to lock in profits. Altogether found his system good and consistently made profits. SD

garfee ..... shall also be shorting Cable, but shall just hold fire for 20700 .... suspect 0.25% UK rate rise already factored in.

Cynic - agree it's got to come back a bit. How did you come up with 20700? I'm meandering a bit on my daily trades, going by gut rather than anything else, which is a dangerous game.
I'm also building a long term position though, because within the next two years, it actually wouldn't surprise me to see this go to 2.40. based on a look at the 25 year chart. I hasten to add that was based on pencil and paper extrapolation and nothing else.

20700 is not my brainwave, but the very very long term target stretching back about 20 years! ...... my m8 who is pretty good on these things and uses sophisticated chart technique, reckons that is the level ..... good enough for me!

maggie, 14 days is about the limit of my patience and by no means a definite close date. I find the hardest skill with TA is the time frame element. Taking CSR for example I expected it to break out to the upside within a week or two and then it goes and does it within two days. It's really dependant on the trend, obviously some are steeper than others and will hit targets quicker than those in shallower trends. The main thing is to identify the trend, entry and exit points. I think all three are equally important. Don't initiate trades just because a support line or resistance line is hit, it may not hold, establish how valid these areas are and wait and see. A good example would be SCHE, I originally suggested a short from 560p, a possible trade supported by resistance, but rather than dive in at that level I realised that the up move still had some strength and waited. Having waited I suggested shorting from 580p over the weekend, a trade that so far has netted 25 pts, rather than firstly been in a loss and now a small profit. Also remember that a trendline that has acted as support on numerous occasions is a lot more valid than one that has provided support on only two or three. Using all the tools available should limit trades becoming investing, it won't work all the time, but good discipline with sensible stops will protect your pot. There is nothing to stop you moving your stops either when you are in profit if you want to keep the position open.

pth

May I please ask for some opinions on this? I have seen a post on this but have not seen any analysis for it.
thanks Simon