overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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pachandl
- 28 Jun 2005 12:41
- 152 of 1009
cape - I assumed an increase because the rns gives the response "not informed" as regards purchases, but "N/A" as regards sells.
capetown
- 28 Jun 2005 12:44
- 153 of 1009
pachandi,thats what i assumed so why the fall in share price?,dont get it.but am sure its on a slow upward trend.
thx
pachandl
- 28 Jun 2005 12:45
- 154 of 1009
GS increased stake from 5.25 (9th March 05) to 6.98%.
parveen1
- 28 Jun 2005 12:48
- 155 of 1009
very good news
barclays + goldmans now own around 20% of the shares
capetown
- 28 Jun 2005 13:01
- 156 of 1009
Its fantastic news,thats why i can t belive share price did not stay at least where it was as opposed to down .50
parveen1
- 28 Jun 2005 13:12
- 157 of 1009
patience
be very patient.
takeover bid !!!!
thats my take on it
DYOR
Fundamentalist
- 28 Jun 2005 13:19
- 158 of 1009
Parveen
just playing devils advocate, 2 instis hold 17%ish (one sixth) of the company now - this is still a very low level of institutional support and a large amount of shares are in retail investors hands (many with short term instincts) - why does this lead you to think a takeover is brewing?
Also, who would actually purchase RTD - the big issue for any purchaser is that there are 2 distinct sides to the business so if someone were to look to a takeover, they would then have to sell off the fuel card business once completed - this is probably enough to deter most would be suitors.
If history is followed, a trading update MAY appear either friday or early next week - for the bullish maybe they are trying to shake some shares out in advance.
Fred1new
- 28 Jun 2005 14:57
- 159 of 1009
From memory they have spun one subsid. company out from the time of their original floated. I may be wrong but I think it was "Universe" which was into security in a different way. It could be thinking of doing so again.
pachandl
- 28 Jun 2005 15:09
- 160 of 1009
Fund - I agree that we must see an increased % in institutional holdings before the current, rather nonsensical, sp movements cease.
Fred - I am still remain sceptical of any spin-off. The petrol bsuiness remains a cash-cow and there are still opportunities to set up a similar business in Eastern Europe and/or parts of the Far East (RTD have the expertise). A spin-off would increase short-term capital for the acquisition of other businesses but long-term it smacks of the over-specialisation of a company like Marconi who destroyed shareholder value by putting all their eggs in one basket (imho).
Fundamentalist
- 28 Jun 2005 15:10
- 161 of 1009
Fred
spot on - it was Universe Group who were spun out from the old Card Clear days. Interestingly they popped up on my radar recently having won a new contract
pachandl
- 28 Jun 2005 16:21
- 163 of 1009
OG - agreed but someone IS selling RTD - 300k just gone through.
Fred1new
- 28 Jun 2005 16:44
- 164 of 1009
That is only about 100.000. Not a lot.
knute
- 30 Jun 2005 12:21
- 165 of 1009
Did anyone notice the second RNS re. Goldman-Sachs, after hours on Tuesday?
Either Golmans did a quick in and out or there was a major cock-up.
Latter suspected as the original 5mill trade has been negatived but last Thursday's 500k stands which agrees roughly with their latest declaration.
Since the 5mill shares were provided for by mm's it implies that there are 4.5mill on the loose somewhere in the market.
No wonder the price is flat-lining and will likely continue to do so until they're cleared imho.
Fundamentalist
- 30 Jun 2005 12:51
- 166 of 1009
Knute
this has been spotted on ADVFN and a couple of the posters have emailed the company for clarification - i will post the response up here when they get it
parveen1
- 30 Jun 2005 17:12
- 167 of 1009
well another 400k sell well absorbed by the MM'S
Imho I think they are getting ready for the trading update which could happen tomorrow or early next week.
sell them back at a much higher premium
coeliac1
- 30 Jun 2005 23:55
- 169 of 1009
Just a comment about the GS notifications.RTD is required to notify information provided to them under Company Law about substantial (ie 3%) interests.So they will have only done an RNS on the basis that GS have given them appropriate notification in the first place.To query it with the company as we are told someone on SDVFN has done shows something of a lack of understanding where the responsibility for the information lies- in this case with GS. RTD is merely the messenger.
What I did notice is the timing.The finance drector,Richard Amos, sent out the second RNS on the same day that the info was received from GS- late in the day-I suspect he realised that to avoid speculation over the earlier statement, on info RTD received the previous day, the sooner he got the later one out the better and got his skates on to deal with it before close.
Fundamentalist
- 01 Jul 2005 00:16
- 170 of 1009
coeliac1
Fully understand your logic - but if you were Richard Amos wouldnt you want to know what GS were doing and be prepared to inform your shareholders if asked? Certainly cant see GS answering any questions as to whether they f***ed up!!!
capetown
- 05 Jul 2005 13:20
- 171 of 1009
Interesting slight move up 2day on small volume,the calm before the storm?