ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Look at this current year forecast - sales tracking 100% on this time last year with the busy Xmas period still to come - so sales of say 27m, with a target gross margin improved to 48%, less admin/amortisation costs up to say 7m gives a net profit of nearly 6m, plus first dividend which could be declared as early as interims, since they will have reached break even by then and have loads of cash to pay out.

Not a bad result at all - but will the market like it? We'll know in 1 minute from now!

sd

I think the answer is yes, sd!!!

pth

A lot of selling into the rise about 80:20 sells to buys so far on steady volume.

I would imagine that a considerable number of short term traders would have bought on anticipation of good results with an associated early spike in the SP, now closing their positions in profit. Will probably take a day or two for things to settle down.

pth

I was rather hoping things would settle UP!

LOL same as that sd , a bit disappionting..

Edit:

take a day or two for things to settle UP!!

Ah! much better, pth.

I imagine older and wiser institutional buyers will emerge when the edge has come off the price today. Looking at the PE it is going some for a business that had a large hiccup in its growth story earlier this year after such a phenomenal rise last year.

On reflection of where this year is going, the fundamental value will out eventually, but will possibly take till post-Xmas trading update to be fully reflected. Until then, a slow but sure rise would be very nice to see.

sd

"We have had a good start to the new financial year and sales are currently
tracking at over 100% year on year."

On reflection, I have no idea what this sentence means. Anyone else know? Does it mean they are at 100% of last year - i.e. the same, no growth - hard to believe? Or does it mean they are 100% up - i.e. double last year's - possible and very good news if true.

Until then my post 1528 could be complete rubbish.

sd

sd

I read it as double last year, although could be wrong.

I wouldn't believe for one moment that you would post complete rubbish!! Perhaps a litttle, but not complete!!! LoL

pth

Looks like the early profit takers are out of the way, and we're off again.

arf arf!!

pth

Hi folk! Just popped into local library. My birthday, so drinks are on me! Not at all surprised at today's statement. sd, the 'tracking' relates to the hitwise figures which show last years volumes in relation to this year - this of course is actual sales but that's how these retail boys (and girls) do their evaluations. Little doubt in my mind that the year on year will continue at something around the 100% level. Its a bit like the tide coming in - there is an inevitability about it. The movement to the internet is gathering pace; fashion is a number one; the ASOS site is excellent; they still only have a small part of the amrket; and they can move into the US as soon as they are ready.

My view is that the sp will get onto last years track; it should be well over 1 by now if we hadn't had the hiccup. OK, that's a bit of a blot on the record but all it was in reality was a drop in marginds for a couple of quarters. MWMI (money....) and I have got a nice little stake built up starting at the bottom - hey, how about that of 42p. Shares should have a good piece on Thursday (John Marshall) and they should be beginning to attract the institutional money! End of month for warehouse is ahead of schedule which was August so I think that is done and dusted. Even more confident of future than with DGT and SEO although perhaps not as dramatic!

Eric

Happy birthday eric, dont forget PCM.

Looking at the AFX reports - yes it's definitely double last year's tuurnover, in which case I was talking remarkably little rubbish earlier and my broad target of 6m net profits next year (less any extraordinary costs icw the warehouse move) should stand.

Allowing 2.7m b/f losses, the tax charge should be about 30% on 3.3m which leaves after tax net profits of about 5m, giving a prospective PE of about 9 which is cheap. If the sector PE for this fast growing business should be anything from 12-15 (or even higher, 18?), this suggests a 12 month forward SP of 84-105p (or even doubled to 126p?) - quite nice to head in that direction anyway over the next few months.

sd

eric - where have you been. Happy Birthday indeed.

Mind you, you've missed a shed load of complete tosh on SEO's thread - luckily the virus does not seem to have spread to DGT and ASC yet where there is still a nice bunch of regulars trying to be helpful to each other.

BTW the tide also ebbs! But I'm with you as per above post. (You know us dogs love a good post!!) How's Honey . . .oh, err, and the wife - I hope fully recovered.

sd

Was a bit worried by the slow start to the day's trading and am relieved to see the sp finally past the 61.50p level.However,the 38 day averages don't bode so well IMO.What do you think of the chart Stokdog?Always glad to hear your opinion.
Ethel

Hi Eric - Birthday Greetings - have one on me

Am missing your sensible commentary on SEO - please come back

Baza

Well, Ethel, IMHO

The chart seems to have developed a nice little well-defined upward channel, since its spiked low of 43p at the beginning of May, almost as steep as its phenomenal rise last year. The SP has made a decisive break upwards and will shortly cross the 200dma. Both of these are nice positive features. The 25dma recently moved up through the 50dma and, apart from a little marking time waiting for the prelims, both now look set to continue in parallel up through the 200dma (which will have started to dip down by then as the highs from late last year wash out in favour of more modest prices currently - so not quite a true golden cross) a nicely supportive act echoing the SP.

I am just about to buy some books on the kind recommendation of a couple of trusted regulars to learn about MACD, Stochastics etc, but my naive view expressed above compels me to stay on for the ride, watching carefully for a fall back through the 25dma as a warning, which if it leads straight on to a fall back through the 50dma would be a good sell signal to lock in profits - but both these signals should be tempered by the prevailing flow of news from the company.

From my analysis of fundamentals posted earlier today you will see I fully expect the SP to be capable of 1.00+ within the next 6-8 months. With both chart and fundamentals aligned, whilst it keeps heading in that general direction, who am I to argue.

All contrary or dissenting views welcome.

sd

Hi Eric

Happy Birthday, have a drink on me. How is the golf?

Paul

stockdog,
It all depends on which MA you use. I use expotential and the sp is already through the 200 day. the sp has moved sideways since 23 June between on 63p on 25th and 53p on the 7th July, last friday. But todays rise takes the sp through the line of resistance drawn between those two dates. Eric made a good purchase at 42. I hope the breakout will continue after the short termers are out of the way. All my indicators look good, my 21day RSI is above 50, the 5,35,5, MACD is above 0 but not yet above the signal line and the Bolinger bands indicated a buy on last thursday.(Long Entry).Interested in which books you are going to purchase as i rely on Murphy. SD

Eric ............ Happy birthday Have a large G&T because your worth it !!!!!! SD