Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Same mistake again and again... previous labeling for cable, for the 3rd wave only. It doesn't change the respective levels, so the workings are all good, just that there was the 'real' 4th and 5th to come;

Fifth waves (and 'C' waves) can be tricky to trade, presenting themselves in several different manners; diagonals, expanding and contracting, (both of which can see wave 4 cross into wave 1) or in a regular impulsive structure. Here, breaking cables 5th wave down on a lower time frame, the 3rd wave gives it away again, leading to another set-up. Don't forget its not about pips, its about percentages;

Dax again, in post 149, i was expecting a small ABC pullback that afternoon/evening (11th). It happened but not before having a further blast north, so no brownie points there;



The larger ABC (4th) is not the one i have shown (expecting) in post 148. The size of this current cycle makes me believe it is indeed a 5th wave and probably finishing off (the larger) wave 3. That would mean a HH to come followed by a longer, deeper and more complex retracement, possibly lasting a week, before back on track to finish the year... The caveat is (and there has to be one with this kind of trending!), is that, if the previous larger ABC (ending on the 9th) was something more substantial, we could be playing out the overall 5th right now and once finished, get ready for a big drop... personally i don't think so... I reckon Mid Jan before putting the hats on... Just an opinion )

PS, the blue line... Wave 4 not entering wave 1 territory; what a fantastic R:R trade!

Might have to change my above view. Looks like it might be the overall 5th afterall. Got a few charts looking like some tops very near indicating dollar strength about to return. Risk off again?



16190 also relevant.

My earlier Euro call was dreadful and influenced slightly by the EurJpy chart, After i worked that one out i didn't bother to update the Euro chart. I now think the breach of the prior ABC can be explained like this;



The 4th wave allowed to breach the (iv'th) of the 3rd. I would normally expect only the 61.8% level for the top (as we reached on Friday afternoon), however, channel lines leave headroom for a little bit more. The channel lines (blue) working perfectly for predicting the end of wave 3 (connect 2&4, draw parallel off of top of 1 for end of 5), the second set obviously wont work the same due to the pullback of 2, thus we go off of the top of 3 for our parallel line... Well, we shall see... )

When we reach the end of this cycle, it will be the first 5 wave of correction, expect a zigzag ABC 'B' wave retracing typically 50% of the whole upswing (approx 500pips currently), before a further 5 waves up;

Post 156 Cable;



Update;



*Edit* A cluster of Fibs, 2nd/3rd and now 4th degree are lining up at 16,230 area.

Bit of fun with everyone's favourite;

First the weekly;



There is of course the possibilty the labeling after the 1&2 could be for for the 3rd wave, thus we are in the 4th right now, but i doubt it. Wave 5 being exactly 100% of 3 for a start...

Daily (concentrating on the 5th);



Shows we have clearly finished wave A of the corrective move.
Now to the 4hr to look at the corrective move;



This is very tricky to call, it's nigh on impossible right now to rule out a very short, quick 'B' wave having already finished, however, i would imagine not and we have merely completed minor wave 'A' (of 'B') and are somewhere close to the end of minor wave 'B' right now (either a flat or an irregular). It is a 3-3-5 move and thus once we turn, we should head back up to make a HH to complete the larger 'B' wave (not to time scale). I have the blue line penciled in, if the label for the 5th minor of the 'A' wave is correct, being extended, we should correct back to that cycles wave 'ii'... Lets see... Certainly not taking a trade off of this yet. Once we know for sure we are in wave 'C' its time to get short some more... $35 middle of next year anyone?

GbpJpy made a partial 'gapfill', after a clear ABC (where the EurJpy did indeed gapfill), we get a flag set-up and target;



The result;

How much further can we go? Combining some channel lines on the Dow;



and scaling in;



an approximation, i see the lines have slipped a bit from being produced on the 4hr... IG's charts... grrrrrrrrr

The thing that would concern me here is that we haven't had an extended wave of the 3rd (yet), its highly likely that the 5th could be. Raising the channel line off of the top of the 3rd gives more scope, but 5 going to 100% level wouldn't surprise me;



I will be keeping a close eye on smaller timescales to watch for a reflex point to be broken in a minor 5w move south, until this happens its go long off of every ABC...

I have another set of channel lines off of the whole move, but we would need a 300+ point up day to get anywhere near them...

So first 5 wave move short and breach of previous reflex points (as has happened on index's and various dollar pairs), followed by an ABC , suggests more downside to come, (after the 'C' of 'B' finishes)... either the second 5 wave move ('C' wave), if corrective, or perhaps the start of something a little more severe...

Could that have been a big ole 4th?

Back to this afternoon and the more immediate plan, i'm hoping for a clean trigger out of the flag for virtually gauranteed target. Lots of waiting for the trade to materialise, but at least the plan is in place... no trigger, no trade... lets see;

The chart in post 165 is actually awesome, despite looking like a bloody rainbow!
Using channel lines on top of Fib's can build a deadly picture. GbpJpy this time, same outcome, (this is done in hindsight, i must confess... i was elsewhere at the time);

Post 167; It presently looks as if we are playing out the 'C' wave of the correction. I don't like the way it made a clear 5w short, ruling out a flat or irregular 'B' wave and yet clearly retraced well in excess of 61.8% of 'A'. It would normally mean, that instead of it being a 5-3-5 correction, it was actually waves 1&2 of a new down move, however as i have shown in workings earlier, the bigger picture, i believe trend is still 'up' right now...

It looks far more likely we have just created a lovely angle for a flagline (long) and this 'C' wave will be somewhat short, possibly even with no fresh low. Its too difficult to call right now, but the extended 'B' wave earlier effectively ended the hope of a flag trade and thus we must adapt to the new PA...

I did short this 'C' wave, but have already banked profit, as i can't read the wave count right now. It could be creating a much larger leg (short), but i don't think so, time to watch and wait for more evidence. The market will still be there tomorrow and to be fair, i would now rather be looking for this scenario instead (*subject to change!*);



The 61.8% level of 'A' (for total of 'C') puts it currently right on the lower blue flagline.

Incidentally, these were the workings to determine the likely end of minor wave 'C' of the 'B' wave;



Minor wave 'C' was 238.2% of minor 'A'.

Hopefully if any lurkers are following you can understand me?! Take the chart in 169, (i kept it simple), delete the A&B and replace it with 1&2 and you can see the opposite scenario exists, it would mean we are now in the 3rd and could go a long way south. Unfortunately, as easy as the Euro was to read last night, its currently not so obvious. When in doubt stay out... a bit more PA and it should become obvious!

My thoughts are that we didn't reach any important Fib level that i could see to call a top. There are many counts that this pullback could conform to and thus still be merely corrective. We will know soon enough.

Just as an aside, it might be a bit early to state this just yet, but, right now the Dow has also bounced cleanly off of its lower channel and as previously stated, i reckon it has further north to go yet and this is a corrective move... PA a little difficult to determine right now, but by rights we should now be in our 'B' wave, a clean break of the lower TL will gain attention.



I'm currently watching to see if i can recognise a minor 5w up or down. Again this afternoons data has made things a little harder to decipher... time for a cuppa instead!

*Edit* late Thurs eve, looks like being in minor 'C' of 'B', so 5w short to come?