NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

Andy,

Very interesting; although in some areas NML are only looking at 20% success rate they are looking at huge profits and of course their success rates are very conservative so the profits could well be higher. They are looking at profits of 300m US $. The sooner mining starts the better.
Di

Dynamite,

Yes we have to hope that the commencement of mining date doesn't "slip" yet again!

A poster on ADVFN actually states that the WORST of the rains are in March and April, which is of some concern, given that they are waiting for the weather to abate before starting!

I am not convinced they wil be able to start in March, and they have to work up to full production, so I think April or May will be the earliest time they will complete the 5000 carat parcel, in my personal opinion.

Another possible longer term concern is that if they couldn't overcome the weather and mine from Sep 2004 to, say March 2005, how will they fare next year?


I'm not sure how much you have studied NML, but only 54% of the revenue pertains to NML!

And that figure reduces to 34% in the future (3 years I believe) as soon as capex is dealt with, so not all the numbers you see are indicative of possible future actual revenue.

And there are deductions for costs, taxes, labour, etc etc

Andy,

I don't take that much notice of teh stuff they say on ADFVN as they spend most of their time slagging everything/one off.

I had realised that only 54% of revenue goes to NML...they are very up front about this on their webiste. Do you hold any shares in NML yourself Andy?
Di

Dynamite,

On the contrary, amongst the dross there's some very well informed opinion on the ADVFN thread, IMHO.

There are some large holders there, and most of the regulars, such as myself, attended the NML presentation in London in November 2004, so have met and talked to the management at first hand.

I would say that there's a wealth of knowledge on that thread, and both bulls and bears make some quite pertinent posts on NML.

Interesting posts today. Helpful to have the 'voice of caution' from Andy. There are reasons for caution: slow performance to-date; rainy seasons; the 5000 carat hurdle; subsequent sectors unproven. Against that you have: first sector of concession 100% proven with the professionals estimating on the low side; equipment for production mining being put in place; professional opinion on output of subsequent sectors. None of the negatives appear to be that serious. If you compare this situation with others in the exploration and mining industry, its a pretty good hand. Its easy to argue that something is unproven; what the professionals are quoting is a probability of success on each area. As a mathematician I multiply the 'expected profit' by 'probability of success' and I get $100m plus. If I assume the Rio Lapa targets only, I have $100m. But, you say, what about the political angle? the Angolan government benefit from the success of NML. I suspect this is the reason for getting on with the production before they have proved the other sectors. The reason we are told for the disappointment with the trading report was that these figures weren't proven, i.e NML had gone on to production in the first sector rather than spending more time proving the future. But they don't need to do that immediately because they have $20m expected profit from the first sector against a cap. of 7M ($13M). You come across, Andy, as going out of your way to prove a negative point when you say that, of course, there are various other costs to be taken into account before you gain any pbt, whereas the $20m quoted is the 'expected profit' which has already taken this into account. The website comes over as professionally sound. Mind, I am happy that there are these negative voices around, because otherwise we would never be able to get in at the current price!

Eric

Eric,

Here, Here- a good post and you are right, if the going was all plain sailing the shares would cost us more than 5p.It certainly sounds as though there are lots of diamonds to be able to measure how much of a carat is in 1 cubit metre is brilliant; that is not alot of soil, dirt sand or whatever to go through to get more than 1/2 a carat on average.
Andy...You did not say ..Do you actually have any NML shares.

Di

What they should do is build a sort of New Millennium dome to keep out the rain. LOL

very good Aldwick...but then the NM dome has become an embarrassment and huge drain on resources.

ewrobson,

I have posted some comments to try and provide some background and information regarding NML, as a lot of the posts on here were of the "this stocks's going to rocket" type of comment without any real supporting information to justify the claim.

I have followed NML for nearly a year, and attended the London preentation evening and met the directors at the wine bar afterwards, so feel I have something to contribute to any discussion regarding this share.

To say I am "going out of my way to be negative" seems to be attempting to deny discussion on the BB, as IMHO, on a BB, just like in the real market, there have to be both bears and bulls for it to function.

I think you will find that you can "get in at the current price" not because of a few "negative voices", on the BB's, but because that is the valuation the market attributes to NML at this stage.

Another reason may be the large sells that appear whenever there is any demand for the shares, ie selling into strength. This overhang still appears to be there, so I think we are stuck in this range for a while.

I don't think you will find NML have gone on to production, I believe they are still sampling and trenching in areas 2 - 5, having completed number 1. They have to be careful not to cross contaminate, so I don't think they are producing yet.

Aldwick,

lol!

Dynamite,

I didn't answer the question because, IMHO, the answer is irrelevant to the discussion of this share, the facts remain facts whether I hold or not.

I post on many threads, and don't feel the need to declare a holding or not.

I see from the Angolan website that the hot rainy system is from September to May which is 8 months of the year. However, the NML website says that they are working with gravel so perhaps there is not so great a problem when you have got the machinery in place. Another thing that surprises me about the negative attitude to NML is the critical attitude for not anticipating problems with importing machinery and moving it around in the rainy season. But they have done the first part of the job: very successfully from what is a most erudite treatment on the web. When you thing of the tremendous enthusiasm for operations like PET and PCI which have achieved next to nothing yet in comparison, I just cannot understand why the sp is so low! Where will it be at the year end when they are well ahead in production in the first sector and have announced exploration results on the second? Cap. of 50M? sp of 40p?

Eric

Eric,

Well NML have admitted they have had problems with the rain, "like standing under a waterfall" accordng ot Shane Healy in London, and their last RNS mentions the mine start depending upon the weather.

As you rightly point out, some have said it rains until April, so i'm not sure if they will commence on time.

With regard to the machinery, it was imported and trasnsported during the DRY season, just before the rains commenced.

John Cross actually said that they could not have done it in the rainy season.

After all that has been said above i think they are worth a small punt and put them away for a rainy day.

driver,

I couldn't agree more, nothing wrong with a couple of speculative punts in a balanced portfolio IMHO.

And speculative is my best description for NML, at the moment.

Accept that. Not much downside and very significant upside. Have put it at 5% of the portfolio. Probably the most speculative but also the highest annual potential. Effectively replaces PET which also had significant downside potential, as we have seen! Will accumulate as confidence builds.

Eric

Eric,

Yes effectively NMl has little downside from here, 3p maybe if they delay exploitation mining for too long, and have another dilutive discounted placement, but they have a month to confirm whether they have started or not.

AndThought it was better to debate NML v FDI debate here rather than on that of PDX where they have plenty to keep themselves busy! My main query is what is it about the comarison between the two companies that justifies a 10:1 cap differential when NML are nearer to production. your answer seemed to rest primarily on FDI's geologist. So what are the negative arguments re Dr Michael Smith and Bernard Neehof; are they not up to the task? Are the Directors a group of scheisters? The geological research, with what appears to be a most professional report, seem to bear no resemblance to the cap. of the company. If it is just doubting Thomases then time will heal that. Or is there something inherently incompetent about the whole operation which makes the numbers deemed unbelievable? Or is it that there is a mix of Australians and other nationalities?

Eric

Eric,

"NML nearer to production?"

Who told you that?

FDI ALREADY have THREE PRODUCING MINES!, sorry but I suggest you to need to study the FDI website, www.firestonediamonds.com

Firestone, in addition to their three mines already in production, have excellent exploration prospects at Groen River, (millions of potential carats at ave price $1,000) and have 180 drill targets in Botswana, where their licences surround the richest diamond mines in the world, Orapa. Jwaneng, and lethlakane.

On Thursday, Firestone confirmed 3 kimberlite hits out of 4 drills in Botswana, quite a phenomenal start to their drillinmg campaign IMHO!

With regard to the geologists you mentioned, I'm sure they're very competent, and would not wish to suggest otherwise, but I have heard it said the HJC is one of the foremost geologists in Africa, having spent 40 years exploring the Namaqualand and other regions in S. Africa.

I have held FDI for a number of years, and am very happy with the management, I really believe they will deliver increased shareholder value, and significantly at that!

NML on the otherhand, have SO FAR, failed to deliver on their promises, and my opinion of them is on hold until we see if they can deliver now.

I think the market cap differential is justified at the moment personally.

I echo your thoughts, Andy