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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

foale - 28 May 2004 13:41 - 1544 of 11056

I think this thread (if not most of moneyAM) is about being master of your own destiny (good or bad)
rather than putting your trust in some unknown system/person

Would be happier with cash in a building society

Agree with Mr Euro re IG Index..
or should I say "wide spread fleecers of
other peoples capital"

reshorted Cable at 1.8366 stop at cost +1 :-)

Paulismyname - 28 May 2004 14:06 - 1545 of 11056

Take your point foale but we are also collectively looking for "alpha".

Tellon - 28 May 2004 14:50 - 1546 of 11056

Whats alpha paul?

Paulismyname - 28 May 2004 15:06 - 1547 of 11056

alpha = outperformance against the trend or indicies. Its primary use is to evaluate hedge fund or collective investment management and usually refers to one fund or one manager or one instrument. In the usage above the point I was making was to seek an advantage. Technical answer below

A coefficient measuring the risk -adjusted performance, considering the risk due to the specific security, rather than the overall market. A large alpha indicates that the stock or mutual fund has performed better than would be predicted given its beta (volatility).

foale - 28 May 2004 15:11 - 1548 of 11056

11 fx trades today 10 were profits 61 pips the largest gain
one loss 7 pips

A day of scalping seemed more appropriate as the near term direction undecided

Now off home to attend a 3 year olds birthday party..
take about take you mind off it !

Have a good weekend everyone
See you on Tuesday

Tellon - 28 May 2004 16:38 - 1549 of 11056

Yep have a good weekend all..

hilary - 30 May 2004 11:17 - 1550 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

31-May

AUD

Trade (Apr)

1:30

-2.0bn

-AUD1.9Bn

Mon

ITL

PPI (Apr)

7:30

0.4%M

0.8%M

 

CAD

GDP (Q1)

12:30

2.0%Q

3.8%Q

 

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY)

5:00

3.2%Y

6.9%Y

 

EUR

ECB Solans' term expires

 

 

 

 

EUR

Trichet Speech (Dublin)

 

 

 

 

EUR

ECB Fazio Speech (Rome)

 

 

 

 

 

Holiday (Market Closed) CHF, GBP, DEM, USD, FRF

 

 

 

 

NZD

Building Permits (Apr)

22:45

-2%M

-6.1%M

1-Jun

AUD

Current Account (Q1)

1:30

-AUD12Bn

-AUD12Bn

Tue

AUD

Retail Sales (Apr)

1:30

0.5%M

0.7%M

 

AUD

RBA Rate Decision

23:30

5.25%

5.25%

 

CHF

PMI (May)

13:00

59.8

60.3

 

DEM

PMI - Manufacturing (May)

7:55

55.0

 

 

EUR

PMI - Manufacturing (May)

8:00

53.8

54.0

 

EUR

GDP - Second Revision (Q1)

9:00

0.6%Q

0.4%Q

 

EUR

EU Commission Economic f/cs (Q2/Q3)

9:00

 

 

 

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Q2)

10:00

 

30.0

 

GBP

PMI - Manufacturing (May)

8:30

55.0

55.1

 

USD

Construction Spending (Apr)

14:00

0.4%M

1.5%M

 

USD

ISM - Manufacturing (May)

14:00

61.0

62.4

2-Jun

AUD

Steven Speech (Brisbane)

2:35

 

 

Wed

AUD

PM Howard visits Washington

 

 

 

 

AUD

GDP (Q1)

1:30

0.5%Q

1.4%Q

 

EUR

PPI (Apr)

9:00

1.3%Y

0.4%Y

 

EUR

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

9:00

8.8%

8.8%

 

EUR

Econfin meeting (Luxembourg)

 

 

 

 

DEM

Retail Sales (Apr)

6:00

0.5%

-0.5%

 

GBP

Consumer Credit

8:30

GBP1.7Bn

GBP1.7Bn

 

USD

Motor Vehicles Sales (May)

 

16.7Mn

16.4Mn

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

hilary - 30 May 2004 11:18 - 1551 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

3-Jun

CHF

SNB Hildebrand Speech (Zurich)

15:00

 

 

Thu

CHF

CPI (May)

5:45

1%Y

0.5%Y

 

EUR

PMI - Services (May)

8:00

54.7

54.5

 

EUR

ECB Rate Decision

11:45

2.0%

2.0%

 

EUR

BBK Conference on Financial Stability

 

 

 

 

GBP

PMI - Services (May)

8:30

59

59

 

 

OPEC Meeting (Beirut)

 

 

 

 

USD

Initial Claims (29 May Week)

12:30

337K

344K

 

USD

Productivity - Final (Q1)

12:30

3.7%

3.5%

 

USD

Factory Orders (Apr)

14:00

-0.1%

4.3%M

 

USD

ISM - Non-Manufacturing (Apr)

14:00

66

68.4

4-Jun

AUD

Building Approvals (Apr)

1:30

-2.0%

-4.4%M

Fri

AUD

RBA Macfarlane testifies to house

0:00

 

 

 

CAD

Labor Force Survey (May)

11:00

25K

49.6K

 

CAD

Ivey PMI (May)

14:00

59

57.1%

 

CHF

Roth Speech (Frankfurt)

7:30

 

 

 

DEM

Manufacturing Orders (Apr)

10:00

0.9%M

-0.3%M

 

 

APEC Trade Minutes Manufacturing (Pucon, Chile)

 

 

 

 

JPY

Leading Indicators (Apr)

5:00

 

72.7

 

USD

Non-Farm Payrolls (May)

12:30

215K

288K

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

foale - 01 Jun 2004 06:50 - 1552 of 11056

Thanks for the calander Hilary...I wont be here much this week
just today..and possibly Friday

short Cable 1.8387

moto for the week: "Watching the late film and early starts dont mix"

hilary - 01 Jun 2004 08:32 - 1553 of 11056

Morning foale,

I've been alongside you on that short this morning although I've just covered it. I'm not confident on direction atm and would like some clearer signs (I've found previously that Bank Holidays tend to throw the oscillators a bit). I'm also more comfortable when the interest rate differential of the currency pair is the market driving force rather than the price of oil.

Tellon - 01 Jun 2004 11:12 - 1554 of 11056

Im long GBP/USD @ 18383.5

My signals look like the start of an up trend. Looking at about 60pips up then some sideways movement for a while.

foale - 01 Jun 2004 12:55 - 1555 of 11056

I reckon that its a short...but did close shortly after Hils post earlier
now short again at 18373

Tellon - 01 Jun 2004 13:33 - 1556 of 11056

Still Long on my Hourly Chart. Possibly looking sideways but not confirmed yet. Holding Long Myself. Data out in about an hour..

Tellon - 01 Jun 2004 15:17 - 1557 of 11056

Oh well..

foale - 01 Jun 2004 15:28 - 1558 of 11056

Tellon this could easily be 1.8400 by 4:30
its that sort of day

hilary - 01 Jun 2004 15:30 - 1559 of 11056

Needs a clear break down below 18335 before you can turn the lights out, imo.

Tellon - 01 Jun 2004 16:16 - 1560 of 11056

Closed for break even..

hilary - 02 Jun 2004 07:33 - 1561 of 11056

Still the effect of those record oil prices is holding Cable up and outweighing the positive economic news out of the US yesterday. However, it hasn't put on that much so far since the high of Friday and even had a half-hearted attempt at breaking rising support in thin Monday Bank Holiday trade. Judging from the little sell-off then at 18350, I suspect that a few stops were triggered.

I can't help but feel that there must now be some large short USD positions in the market which have been built up on free margin over the last week or two. Any news from OPEC which could stem the rise in crude (this week??) could see an unwinding of the short greenbacks which could in turn trigger the rising stops and prompt a broader sell-off in Cable.

Think I'll just scalp both ways till then and be ready to pounce once she starts to sell properly.

Beeblebrox - 02 Jun 2004 07:44 - 1562 of 11056

morning hils,
like your synopsis, and agree it's now very close to the top i had in mind for this run-up - 185.00.
as well as news that may cause a change of direction, it is a little overbought
for the moment, so i expect a retrace to 181-182 before we move on up again.

hilary - 02 Jun 2004 08:25 - 1563 of 11056

Morning Beebs,

The trouble is that I've now got a chart on which I've drawn so many bounding support and resistance lines that I can't remember which line is which.

I drew a nice little expanding triangle yesterday which worked very well for me in closing out a few times (I guess that other players must have been working to the same constraints) but it's now "expanded" a bit too much and the price action currently isn't near either line. I'm tempted to long it for (hopefully) 50 pips or so up to the resistance line, but the risk/reward scenario isn't exactly favourable. I'm more inclined to see if it rises under it's own steam and to then try shorting it if or when it gets there.

:o)
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