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Thanks for the calander Hilary...I wont be here much this week
just today..and possibly Friday

short Cable 1.8387

moto for the week: "Watching the late film and early starts dont mix"

Morning foale,

I've been alongside you on that short this morning although I've just covered it. I'm not confident on direction atm and would like some clearer signs (I've found previously that Bank Holidays tend to throw the oscillators a bit). I'm also more comfortable when the interest rate differential of the currency pair is the market driving force rather than the price of oil.

Im long GBP/USD @ 18383.5

My signals look like the start of an up trend. Looking at about 60pips up then some sideways movement for a while.

I reckon that its a short...but did close shortly after Hils post earlier
now short again at 18373

Still Long on my Hourly Chart. Possibly looking sideways but not confirmed yet. Holding Long Myself. Data out in about an hour..

Oh well..

Tellon this could easily be 1.8400 by 4:30
its that sort of day

Needs a clear break down below 18335 before you can turn the lights out, imo.

Closed for break even..

Still the effect of those record oil prices is holding Cable up and outweighing the positive economic news out of the US yesterday. However, it hasn't put on that much so far since the high of Friday and even had a half-hearted attempt at breaking rising support in thin Monday Bank Holiday trade. Judging from the little sell-off then at 18350, I suspect that a few stops were triggered.

I can't help but feel that there must now be some large short USD positions in the market which have been built up on free margin over the last week or two. Any news from OPEC which could stem the rise in crude (this week??) could see an unwinding of the short greenbacks which could in turn trigger the rising stops and prompt a broader sell-off in Cable.

Think I'll just scalp both ways till then and be ready to pounce once she starts to sell properly.

morning hils,
like your synopsis, and agree it's now very close to the top i had in mind for this run-up - 185.00.
as well as news that may cause a change of direction, it is a little overbought
for the moment, so i expect a retrace to 181-182 before we move on up again.

Morning Beebs,

The trouble is that I've now got a chart on which I've drawn so many bounding support and resistance lines that I can't remember which line is which.

I drew a nice little expanding triangle yesterday which worked very well for me in closing out a few times (I guess that other players must have been working to the same constraints) but it's now "expanded" a bit too much and the price action currently isn't near either line. I'm tempted to long it for (hopefully) 50 pips or so up to the resistance line, but the risk/reward scenario isn't exactly favourable. I'm more inclined to see if it rises under it's own steam and to then try shorting it if or when it gets there.

:o)

Just decided to go short myself with a stop at 550.

Forex - Dollar drifts lower ahead of OPEC meeting, US jobs data - UPDATE 1
AFX


CHICAGO (AFX) - The U.S. dollar drifted lower against its major rivals Wednesday, but was confined to limited moves ahead of an OPEC oil production meeting and U.S. jobs data due later in the week.

Prospects for oil-price relief as OPEC members meet in Beirut to discuss output and more evidence of U.S. job creation could up the odds for a U.S. interest-rate hike later this month, which would make the dollar a more attractive currency to foreign investors.

Conversely, continued record-high oil prices, which analysts have said may cut consumer spending, and disappointing hiring could delay the widely expected monetary policy tightening, renewing selling pressure on the U.S. currency.

The greenback was down 0.3 percent against Europe's shared currency in early U.S. trading, with the euro was valued at $1.2268. The dollar fell 0.2 percent against its U.K. counterpart, with one British pound earning $1.8440. The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 1.2444 Swiss francs.

The dollar reversed lower against the Japanese yen after gaining more than a full yen in the wake of strong U.S. factory data on Tuesday.

The dollar was quoted at 110.32 yen, down 0.1 percent from late New York levels on Tuesday.

There were no major U.S. economic reports due for release on Wednesday, leaving currency markets to reflect back on factory data from earlier in the week and look ahead to Friday's payrolls report.

The Institute for Supply Management reported on Tuesday that its measure of factory activity accelerated to 62.8 percent in May from an already high 62.4 percent in April. The employment component of the data climbed to its highest level in more than 30 years.

If Friday's jobs data are as strong as the consensus estimate [for some 200,000 new jobs], the dollar could rise to 113 yen, as market participants begin to factor in an imminent interest-rate hike in the United States, said Masaki Fukui, senior currency analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, in Tokyo.

As for OPEC, 'the group is expected to raise their production ceiling by 10 percent or 2.5 million barrels per day,' said Kathy Lien, currency analysts with Forex Capital Markets, in New York.

'The cartel is already producing 2 million more barrels per day than their current quota, which means that simply legitimizing the increase [at this week's meeting] should have a limited impact on oil prices,' she said. 'However, if they announce a less than 2.5 million barrel per day increase, expect oil prices to continue rising, which would put further downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Lien also pointed to Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting, which is expected to conclude with no change to the bank's 2 percent borrowing target.

Recent evidence of accelerating inflation in the region has all but quashed the chance for the rate cut that some observers thought might be necessary. European growth has lagged that in the United States and Japan.

In Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate unchanged at 5.25 percent as was widely expected.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the country's gross domestic product in the first quarter through March was up 0.2 percent in seasonally adjusted terms from the previous quarter and was up 3.2 percent on the year.

Analysts had expected 0.5 percent quarterly GDP growth. The consensus year-on-year growth forecast was for a 3.6 percent rise, according to AFX.

The Australian dollar fell 0.8 percent against its U.S. counterpart. One Australian dollar was fetching 70 U.S. cents.

Any views on my postion?

Choice was based on the resistance celing and that on the hourly its fallen bellow a Triangle.

on the assumption that you're still short from 184.50ish....

but remember i'm not too good technically.....

it all depends on the oil price. if it reamains stable/goes down
then you're probably going to be ok. any panic/increase and the $ gets weaker.

i have no position at present.

Looks OK to me (I'm short too), Tellon, but it's like watching paint dry atm.

edit: I'm looking for sub 1.83 over the next day or so.

Oooooooooh. How nice is that fall?

:o)

what did you do to it hilary ?