The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Ahead of us getting into it, I wonder what peoples outlooks are for the Autumn.


For myself I see the present rally is just a bear market rally, a relief rally that comes after weeks of sustained selling, it is only normal for buyers to come in to trade the move up, before the next leg down.

What could drive the next leg down ?

That could be the reporting period in late August through September.


Although many an analyst is trying to poke the embers and raise a rally talking of PE's, the thing they are all missing is the fact we have as yet not had the round of "missed earnings forecasts" "warnings going forward of slowing growth, reduced growth" etc... and then the round of downgrades than ensues this.

I think too many people are rushing in to buy what is clearly not a market bottom - too much media it trying to stoke up the fires and get people buying (for their own gain ?) - and this could all go bang over the Autumn/Winter period.

I would certainly, at the moment, expect the market lows of March/April 2009 to be well below where we are today.

A week or so ago on Bloomberg some fund manager mentioned that there is the highest ever number of short positions open and also 3.5 trilion dollars in cash waiting for the right time and as you say this isn't it!

Someone reminded me of the Zeitgeist movie, and for anyone looking at todays events "credit crisis" etc... its well worth watching Part III in the movie.

You will see so many parallels of "what happened then" as to "what happened just before the credit crisis" - eg use of margin, free credit etc.. before they pulled the plug.


Part I deals with anti-religion, and whilst its totally true imo, some people will no doubt prefer not to see part I as they will be unable to comprehend.

Part 2 deals with 911 and 7/7, and whilst again I view it as very truthful, some people may wish to avoid this as they are unable to comprehend.


And so the interest, in financial terms and in view of the "current" credit crisis, is Part III.


The link to the Google Video Player is :

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-594683847743189197


** If you have 2 hours you can set aside, I would suggest viewing the whole movie, but otherwise skip through and watch Part III.

The movie was made well before the current credit crisis, but I am sure on watching part III you will be able to see some of the past events, happening again.......

Freddie Mac in trouble...... from cnn.com


BREAKING NEWS
Mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac posts second-quarter net loss of $821 million. Loss much wider than had been expected. More soon........


Stocks set to falter
5:05am: Dow Futures point to lower open as investors digest big loss at troubled mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac; oil hovers above $119.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7552336.stm

Page last updated at 10:14 GMT, Sunday, 10 August 2008 11:14 UK

UK economy 'worse than thought'

Many UK manufacturers face an 'uncomfortable' time, the CBI says.

The CBI, the UK's largest employers' organisation, has warned that the UK economy is deteriorating faster than it previously thought.

There was "no doubt that the mood has darkened in the last two or three m...............

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news

Bank to give gloomy outlook for the UK
Simon Duke, Daily Mail

11 August 2008, 7:46am

The Bank of England is expected to slash its economic forecasts for this year and next amid signs that inflation is spiralling out control.

Gloom: Inflation is making interest rate cuts impossible


In this Wednesday's quarterly inflation report, Governor Mervyn King is likely to warn that the credit crunch and collapsing consumer confidence are inflicting real damage on the economy.
But any hopes of an imminent fall in borrowing costs are set to be dashed, as King may signal that rampant food and energy price rises have left the Bank's hands tied.

King's gloomy prognosis will intensify fears that a severe downturn over the Summer will push Britain towards recession.

Lehman Brothers economist Peter Newland said: 'A downward spiral between tightening credit conditions and falling demand is now a reality. A technical recession of two quarters of negative growth is more likely than not over the coming 12 months.'

The Bank, which left rates on hold last week, is tipped to warn that the inflationary menace is on the rise.

King is also likely to take a red pen to his previous forecast for growth in economic output of 1.5pc this year.

The move would be a huge blow for Chancellor Alistair Darling, who is relying on growth of between 2% and 2.5% this year to balance the government's books. Official figures due on Tuesday are expected to reveal that inflation has jumped to a 16-year high above 4% - twice the Bank's 2% target set by the Chancellor.

With factory gate price rises set to jump to more than 10pc this week, Britain's biggest business lobby admitted that the 'mood has darkened in the last two or three months'.

Richard Lambert, head of the Confederation of British Industry, predicted growth prospects for 2009 and 2010 would be 'no better than anaemic'.

The fall-out from rampant price rises and the credit crunch is spreading fast.

The number of companies expecting to make staff redundant has risen to 27% from 22% over the past three months, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development will warn this morning.

Worth a watch and listen :


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7766057.stm


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