Just bought this at 64.75 pence,feel free to comment..

Yes it was starting to go very flat i think when it hits 80 pence i will sell out and move on,,as they say in the films,,,,,,,,,,,wagons roll only down hill!

my price target is slightly above 80. will see what news comes out. also this EGM is interesting...

Its come along way since that 44p in january prop,if thet can get rid of the parent company they could have a chance.

a great chance. i think a tasty morsel to a conglomorate with an insurance arm...ala RAC

NOW YOUR TALKING PROP,a quid i think,the good times are back..

like it. considering i was falling asleep at the PC this afternoon this little flurry in AVE has woken me up! squiddly diddly by the summer!

nice momentum and volume...

Hello!!!!

Nice numbers here today.

huge volume today. i think a seller that has been around has been taken out. could rise tomorrow (if the dow doesn't collapse!)

Good volume today both ways, RNS not too cheery.
Price bottomed ?

don't know but the news is so bearish they may be driving the price down to buy the stoack in house. consiracy theory?

Looks to me that they could drop some way yet, unless some spec talk arrives to hold them up. 50p could well be on the way again. Would get interested in buying then.

still buying. up from 8.01% last month!



Avis Europe PLC
27 May 2005




27 May 2005

Avis Europe plc ('the Company')

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 27 May 2005,
pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Fidelity
International Limited (FIL) and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, being
non-beneficial holders, now hold 54,460,395 ordinary shares in the Company
representing 9.30% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Conspiracy theorists are probably right

If you analyse the volume of large parcels above 1m which have changed hands since 4 Jan05 and allowing 50 % double counting to cater for shorting.......
Then
At least 60% of the 25% AVE "free market" shares is now in the hands of Big Boys with 1m to 14m each
ie ....the genuine "free market" is probably down to around 60m shares
and

Also
Its quite a smart move to cancel a dividend when you own 60% of the Company (and have the support of another 15% of the shareholders in exchange for inside info)
...This leaves D`Ieteren with 40% of AVE retained dividend

There can only be one reason why Fidelity continue to accumulate stock when their informal contacts within AVE are telling them in advance that the next RNS will be bearish

.........There is a bid in the pipeline this year either Cendant or D`Ieteren buying out the last 40%

100p still looking good ........

great synopsis! 100ppppppp

Assume current ownership.... as in previous post
D`Ieteren 349.3M
Share Options etc 4.0M
Fidelity 54.5M
Franklin 45.2M
Total 453.0M

If we only count individual trades above 200000 shares since 4 Jan 05
Approx 135M shares have changed hands
We can safely assume that even allowing a generous 60M for shorting
....and since the sp has actually been rising not falling since Jan this is more likely to be an overestimate
Then
There must currently be individual holdings exceeding 1M totalling at least 75M
with no individual holding breaching the 3% disclosure limit

Added to the above this means that around 528M out of a total share capital of 586M is now in the hands of people more inclined to" Accumulate" rather than "Dispose" of their holdings
It also strongly suggests that the MMS are the only Big Traders left in the free marke and have been for a considerable number of weeks if not months

And looking forward we can assume that

When the MMS Buy it is likely to be a stock accumulation exercise on behalf of a principal or possibly and more rarely on their own account
And

When the MMS Sell it is likely to be a stock transfer exercise to the principal

However for a smooth stock transfer from MM to principal at a previously agreed price requires two circumstances to be aligned
1 The MM has accumulated a big enough parcel to transfer to his principal
2 The free market price has entered the bid offer spread range needed to process the transfer without looking odd
This seems the only logical explanation for large parcels changing hands in a thin volume market with negligible impact on the bid/offer spread

Otherwise

The chronic shortage of stockshould would have resulted in a wildy fluctuating free market with an sp all over the place despite relatively small trades

100,000 lifted at 67. nice

4% gain today thats better.

not overly concerned here. tells you something that these have held in well over the last 2 weeks. committed to them still!

Same here prop,keep the faith.