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CFA CAPITAL - EXCITING YEAR AHEAD (DGT)     

SueHelen - 31 Mar 2004 10:42

Final Results Due In March 2005.

http://www.cityfin.co.uk
Trades over 450,000 shares are delayed in reporting by 1 Hour.

One of City Financial Associates (CFP's) main operating goals is to bring fledgling companies to the market. With the depressed stock market over the last few years many potential clients have deffered entry to the LSE. Markets have now turned and the reality of a sucession of new floatations is growing. CFP are well positioned to enjoy the rewards that will be benefited to them in this growing market place.

Why the EXCITEMENT - will here are the reasons why I think we're on a winner.

1) My motto is when it's comes to investing there are three things. Management, management and management. With any good investment - the management should be the driving force in a company. Can they cut the mustard, are they dynamic, do they have good contacts? I think so if you read the following profile.

Stephen Barclay, Executive Chairman

Stephen Barclay, aged 61, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1964 with Robson Rhodes before obtaining an MBA degree from Wharton Business School in 1967. In 1989, after a career during which he reorganised various companies, he established City Financial Associates Plc (formerly Clifton Financial Associates Plc) to provide corporate finance advice to small to medium sized private and public companies. In August 1998, City Financial Associates Plc was purchased by Talisman House Plc (now Seymour Pierce Group Plc) where he became group executive chairman. In December 1998, Talisman House Plc purchased an institutional stockbroker, Seymour Pierce Limited, where he became executive chairman. He resigned as a director of Seymour Pierce Group Plc and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc. He is a director of a number of public companies including MICE Group Plc and Talisman First Venture Capital Trust Plc and is a governor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

John Shaw, Executive Director

John Shaw, aged 54, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1975 with Touche Ross & Co in London. Subsequently he spent two years seconded to the Quotations Department of the London Stock Exchange returning to Touche Ross & Co to join the Corporate Finance Group until 1982. After a period as a sole practitioner, he joined Chase Investment Bank Limited in 1985, was appointed a director and founded the Equity Investment Group, formed to invest in unquoted companies. In 1990 he joined Henry Ansbacher & Co Limited as an Assistant Director of Corporate Finance. He started working with City Financial Associates Plc in early 1995 and was appointed a director in December 1996. He was appointed a director of Seymour Pierce Limited in December 1998 where he was initially Head of Corporate Finance and latterly Head of Private Equity. He resigned from Seymour Pierce Limited and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc.

2) They have turned a 2 million loss into nearly a profit if you ignore costs for discontinuing operations - that some turn around.

3) With only small market capital of 3.83M it's feasible to suggest they could make a good profit this year as they have already got off to a good start signing more clients.

A profit of half million would give a pe ratio of 7.66

1 million a pe ratio of 3.83

1.5 million a pe ratio of 2.55

2 million a pe ratio of 1.91.

So it would only take a small profit to make this company super undervalued. Consider the possibility they could achieve a 2 million profit this year, which is the least, I expect, we could be looking at a share price of 7p. YES THAT'S 7P (An average p/e for the sector is 16.) Even with a profit of only 1 million that's still an upside of 3.5p.

3) Consider the fact that some of their clients pay their fee by way of giving large share holdings to CFP. All it would take is two or three creamy companies to give them valuable portfolio holding which they could cash in at a substantial return.

4) The IPO is sector has already increased three fold this year. More and more companies are coming into AIM and from abroad then ever before. Rules have changed where foreign companies can use a fast track scheme to get on board more quickly then ever before. I'm sure CFA Associates are well positioned to benefit with this increase in volume.

5) We could see a re-rating this year in this sector, which would be the cherry on the top.

I rest my case, to me this is a no brainer unless you want to wait for the next results for proof they have achieved profitability. If that's your cautious approach, fine but by then, you can then expect a much higher share price then now.

Major Shareholdings:
Stephen John Barclay 64,600,000 11.66%
Pershing Keen Noms Ltd 49,610,000 8.95%
John Richard Shaw 29,400,000 5.31%

RNS Number:9414C
CFA Capital Group PLC
15 September 2004

CFA Capital Group plc
Interim results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2004
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

Highlights

* Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies - broker to 15 AIM companies

* Currently handling a number of AIM flotations and other major transactions

* Strong second-half order book - solid outlook for year

* Turnover for the period up 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30 June 2003:
#262,000 from continuing operations)

* Losses before taxation of #58,000, (loss 6 months to 30 June 2003:
#208,000 from continuing operations)

* Currently recruiting to further strengthen team

Introduction
I am pleased to announce that CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM
companies and broker to 16 AIM companies. The company is currently working on a
number of AIM flotations and other major transactions, and as such has built a
strong order book for the second half of 2004. The fees generated by this
activity, taken together with our underlying retainer income and largely-fixed
overhead base, leaves us well-positioned for a satisfactory outcome to the year
as a whole.

Sharply reduced losses for the first half were achieved even though we had to
incur costs on two flotations that were not completed until July 2004 which
generated revenues of #225,000. These revenues were not recognised in the
results to 30 June 2004.

Turnover for the period nonetheless increased 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30
June 2003: #262,000 from continuing operations), with losses before taxation of
#58,000 showing a marked improvement from #208,000 (6 months to June 2003 -
continuing operations).

Following the sale of CFA Securities Limited in 2003, CFA is now firmly focused
on servicing the needs of clients who are essentially AIM listed companies run
by entrepreneurs. We now have a team of eight, comprising executives and support
staff, providing corporate finance and broking advice. We are in the process of
recruiting further executives to join the team. This recruitment will ensure
client service levels are maintained as we meet the increasing demand for our
services.

In accordance with my statement on the results for the year to 31 December 2003,
CFA started the beginning of 2004 with a good pipeline of work and with a degree
of optimism that market conditions would enable these deals to be completed and
this was the case in the first quarter to 31 March 2004. However, in the second
quarter, in a number of cases transactions that we anticipated completing in the
first half have either been completed since the end of June or have been
deferred. This adversely affected our earlier expectations of financial
performance in the first half of the year.

Financial review
Despite these factors CFA achieved a creditable result in the first half.
Turnover was #510,000 (6 months ended 30 June 2003: #262,000 from continuing
operations), overheads (including plc running costs) were #609,000 (2003:
#458,000 on continuing operations) and the loss before taxation for the period
was #58,000 (6 months ended 2003: loss #208,000).

These results need to be seen in the context of our having completed the
flotation of Smallbone plc (admitted to AIM on 26 July) and Ragusa Capital plc
(admitted to AIM on 15 July). No income is taken into account in the period in
respect of these transactions, although a significant amount of the costs
relating to these flotations were incurred in the period.

CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies and retained Broker
to AIM 15 companies. Annualised recurring income currently totals over #340,000
representing approximately 30 per cent of total budgeted group costs, and we
anticipate that our level of retainers and this source of revenue will show a
significant increase by the year end. Our increasing base of retained clients
not only provides a source of recurring revenue but is also a prime source of
transactions.

On 27 May 2004 we announced a placing of 65 million new ordinary shares at a
price of 0.7p per share, to raise #441,340 net of expenses. As at 31 December
2003 the net assets of CFA Capital Group plc were #534,000. The impact of the
placing and the small loss in the period, has been to increase the Group's net
worth as at 30 June 2004 to #914,000, creating a sound financial base.

Current trading
We currently have a strong order book both in respect of a number of AIM
flotations and other transactions partially arising through our existing client
base. On the basis that we complete a good number of these transactions, we
anticipate a satisfactory outcome for the year as a whole.

Summary
On 31 July 2004, John Shaw stood down as a Director of CFA Capital Group plc and
all Group companies. John has worked with me for over 10 years and was a founder
shareholder of the Company in 2001. The Board thanks John for his significant
contribution and wishes him well for the future.

The Board also extends its thanks to the entire team for their efforts so far
this year.

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samon - 30 Dec 2004 21:52 - 1576 of 1892

Two threads on this share?
Is someone being mischievous?

gorwel22 - 31 Dec 2004 11:47 - 1577 of 1892

I already hold these (-),,PET(-) PCI(-) EPO(-)maybe next year a(+),anyway wishing you all A HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR .doug

snakey - 03 Jan 2005 00:27 - 1578 of 1892

what`s with the Griffin SP @ 5.6 P/E ratio and profits etc increased exponentially from previous but SP remains static for last 8 months and no jump following,what would appear to be, great results in November???. Do the MMs know something that is not apparent to all of us ??

moneyplus - 03 Jan 2005 13:38 - 1579 of 1892

Could be-- beware of Stephen Dean!! I have held shares in his previous hot shot companies ART being one and only succeeded in losing money--he looks after himself first and last, shareholders are left out of pocket.

overgrowth - 03 Jan 2005 14:14 - 1580 of 1892

moneyplus - With the Griffin involvement in CFP, it looks as though this is a slightly different scenario.

Stephen Dean does indeed ramp up his "hot shot" companies and then sells out quickly, however he has previously made his strategy clear of Griffin not being a long term holder of any companies they promote.

Griffin investment in CFP is different, because they are using CFP as a vehicle to get the hot shot companies into the AIM index, whilst Griffin are free to ramp away.

In theory this should put a lot of new business in CFP's direction - just be wary of investing too early in the companies they will be acting as NOMAD/broker for.

moneyplus - 03 Jan 2005 15:35 - 1581 of 1892

Thanks Overgrowth--happy and prosperous new year to you. 2004 was a lot better for me with a lot of good advice from friends on this board and steering clear of ramps.

snakey - 05 Jan 2005 23:58 - 1582 of 1892

Interesting that Griffin issued a share placing today to raise 77,000 +/-.
would this have anything to do with our new, special relationship ??

overgrowth - 06 Jan 2005 00:06 - 1583 of 1892

snakey something's definitely going on in the background - did you notice that the placing was at a premium to their current shareprice ?

snakey - 06 Jan 2005 00:29 - 1584 of 1892

yes, and after they announced year end results for september holding 711,000 in bank alone, apart from nearly a million in tradeable investments. so how much does 77k buy you against that collateral??? but I suppose they don`t lose interest when it`s somebody elses dosh.

markusantonius - 06 Jan 2005 01:26 - 1585 of 1892

Held CFA (prev Abinger) for 3 years before coming out with a small profit, last year. Knew, at the time, that it was way overpriced based on fundamentals so this was obviously due to some kind of OTT promoting! No surrprises as shortly afterwards the shaare price began its slide to where it is now usually bearing a large spread, as well.

IMHO the price may very well soar ONE DAY but not for maybe 12 months+ and not to over a quid as one enthusiast predicts! The current price is about right I would say.

willfagg - 06 Jan 2005 10:47 - 1586 of 1892

Dear EW do you still feel upbeat about the short term prospects? Like you I have bought further shares taking adavntage of current low price.There is probably an equal split between positive and negative feelings on this thread. I hope we ahve got it right!

Ted1 - 06 Jan 2005 14:55 - 1587 of 1892

Still not a single trade. Some positive news is now required.
Quite before the storm??

taylormade - 06 Jan 2005 15:01 - 1588 of 1892

Very weird not a single trade.

markusantonius - 06 Jan 2005 16:11 - 1589 of 1892

So what do you all think about the SHORT-TERM prospects, then?

willfagg - 06 Jan 2005 17:10 - 1590 of 1892

I feel like we are basically starved of information and a little confused.CFP made a comment before Xmas that they acknowledged they did not always communicate well but they would correct this for the future? I wish when companies make these comments they realised their investors remember what they say and expect them to keep to their promises!
I cant remember who contacted them befor but a request for an update on behalf of their investors on this thread might be a way forward

snakey - 06 Jan 2005 17:51 - 1591 of 1892

I think we can look forward to some fireworks from next week which I hope are extremely lively and not damp squids !!! Griffin may make some further moves in our direction ?

thesaurus - 06 Jan 2005 18:38 - 1592 of 1892

Snakey I will hold you to that opinion

EWRobson - 06 Jan 2005 21:45 - 1593 of 1892

markusantonius, willfagg

Welcome back Markus (can't do it in Latin) - your return must be a good sign; presumably you return at the bootom and exit before the top!

I suspect that too many of the comments are with the short-term. Obviously, people can use this column with a short-term trader hat on and good luck to you. We should not, though, even be discussing the possibility of distrubing the company getting on with the business. We are not the company, we are traders in their shares.

The situation as I see it: (i) Barclay and Shaw have bowed out, chagrined, accepting failure of their vision to complete their careers as managers rather than consultants, which is I suspect what they are; (ii)Tony Rawlinson, who has taken over, has "directed many of CFA's key transactions"; (iii) they are a small, dedicated team of 5 professionals. So why invest in them? First, they have got rid of two expensive people whom I suspect they can well do without. Second, a successful contract can well be worth something like 200K, so it is quite feasible that they should make 1m profit. Third, on the back of success, they can build up the team, become a major player in a rapidly growing market. Fourth, Griffin may be the devil, but better to have him onside: good source of business and complimentary player in the market.

So, what is CFA worth? Looks as though there will be a loss this year on turnover of around 1m. Breaks on key projects might have resulted in 500K on 2m, say (OK, overgrowth?). They have the cash to ride the blows. Like a game of golf, the bounces even out. A profit of 500K, with decent forecast might mean a pe of 10 and a cap. of 5M. An sp of 0.8p. That seems a reasonable near term objective. When by? The key date is probably the forecast with the final results in March (wasn't that what our friend SueHelen said!).

So, why have I built up my holding. Classic case of good 3:1 upside potential (as advised by my friend johngtudor).

But its not the place for a quick buck. Its just that, from a background of 'field of play' consultantcy, I empathise with what they are trying to do and satisfied that, with a bit of patience, they will come good and it could be quite spectacular. The downside? Shame, they get swallowed by Griffin and I make money anyway! Sob! sob! ROFL!

Eric

overgrowth - 06 Jan 2005 22:24 - 1594 of 1892

Hi Eric,

I calculated the probable net loss after the announcement as follows:

At interims CFP had 914K net assets of which 686K was cash at bank - hence as Tony Rawlinson says, they have the cash to see them through this temporary setback.

They had overheads of 609K in H1 so we can assume yearly overheads to be 1.218M.

A loss of 58K posted in H1 needs to be added to losses from H2.

I believe in H2 that two NOMADships were lost and we know that two more were gained (Dunn Line and Interbulk) so we can assume recurring income to remain constant.

We have 225K income carried forward from H1 plus 25K from sale of Ashdene shares.

Because CFP are not broker for Dunn Line or Interbulk I'm assuming that float fees will be around 100K for both. Add in 50K for other minor deals and consultancy etc.

This gives for H2:

Carried forward 225
Sale of shares 25
New business 150
Recurring income 170

Total income 570
Expenses 609

H2 loss (39)
H1 loss (58)

Hence FY loss before exceptional items looks like around 100K

John Shaw resigned so he should be entitled to nothing.

Stephen Barclay will probably be contractually entitled to a full year's salary of 125K.

Hence we're looking at approx. 225K loss posted at the end of this year (which will be reported in March).

Had things worked out (a prime example of their bad luck was Intandem films who were due to float but the jammy so and so's managed to get a hefty grant from the Film Council running over 3 years), we would have probably been looking at around 0.5M profit as you say.

The good news is that AIM popularity is predicted by City analysts to continue throughout 2005 - so CFP have another bite of the cherry, and that could well include some extra tasty morsels introduced by Griffin.

Not quite another Durlacher yet - though CFP have the potential for some spectacular performance in the coming months. Price is still bargain basement so there's plenty of upside potential in the sp.

All the best

OG

markusantonius - 07 Jan 2005 01:01 - 1595 of 1892

Thanks, Eric? (EWR). I only make guest appearances on these kind of bulletin boards when I'm after "neutral" input/feedback from fellow investors and the Layman. Also, yes in your diagnosis. I'm an opportunist (after years of making stupid mistakes on the markets!).

I like the comment from "Overgrowth"...

"The good news is that AIM popularity is predicted by City analysts to continue throughout 2005 - so CFP have another bite of the cherry, and that could well include some extra tasty morsels introduced by Griffin..."

Personally, I like CFA [you call it by symbol name: CFP!] and it's main players. IMHO if the comapny can get through the first part of 2005 relatively unscathed then it could be a huge winner in 12-24 months or so but doubtful a big riser in the near future.

From what I hear on the Grapevine - a firm bought a chunk of CFA stock in early 2004 and "pushed/marketed/promoted" the stock [call it what you will] only for it rise way above it's fundamental value (when I sold!) in Autumn 2004. Then most likely started to match deals and make profits for itself. This happens a lot on AIM/OFEX/Fledgling apparently. Not good. But at least I benefitted from it although could have made an extra 1k if I'd held for 2 days longer!

I am not an existing s/holder but if the spread narrows - or the buy price shortens - then I am seriously tempted to get back on board. IMHO 2005 will be a hot time for punters picking out the right stocks.

Will keep more of an eye on these Boards from now on, I think!

...

Markus.
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