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2004 Goldfinger Stock Picks Thread (GOLD)     

goldfinger - 04 Jan 2004 00:32

Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.




CAT - 10 Feb 2004 13:11 - 158 of 304

added to new long LNB at 72 - thanks for this Slater.

philj66 - 10 Feb 2004 16:00 - 159 of 304

GF I presume you have seen this appraisal from AMreview its a brief summary of the co so far if anyone is interested. It is not on the other thread either
Report updated: 28th January 2004
As the original name implied, Mediwatch - once Prostcare - had had the objective of funding projects for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate diseases, objectives which have commercial ends of course. To further this end it acquired Karim Ltd., in April 2000. 7.2 million shares were issued in consideration; a private placing raised 1.6 million at 50p per share; admission to AIM, and a 360,000, 60p, placing followed, after which the shares did quite well for a bit. The eponymous Karim was named for Mr. Omer Karim, a consultant urological surgeon at Heatherwood and Wexham Park NHS Trusts. A distinguished and respected international specialist, as was his co-director, Mr. Mark Emberton, (a senior oncology lecturer at University College London) there was a profound corporate interest in novel applications for computing power to assist in their specialist field. The business strategy was to create a facility for walk-in/walk out units as part of a diagnostic initiative; to create interest in the disease through a website; and to fund lines of research. As with all such enterprises, the motivation is impeccable and the objective praiseworthy. But whereas although such businesses are generally rooted in science, even if investment is an act of faith, Prostcare was more hard-edged, depending as it did upon the attraction of men in sufficient numbers, men anxious to obtain access to the diagnostic services provided. A strong threat to the success of the venture of course was any future availability of free prostrate cancer screening on the National Health Service. However there was an abrupt change of emphasis as the shares were suspended on the first day of September 2000, to allow shareholders to vote on the planned acquisition of MediWatch. A crunching 10 million shares were issued to the vendor of the company (a then value of 8 million). Mediwatch, which makes medical diagnostic equipment in the same urological area, had just crept into profit to December 1999. Consummation of the deal saw the group change its name to Mediwatch, and Mr.Philip Stimpson take the corporate helm as Chief Executive. A private placing had raised 200,000 in November 2000, partly from the illustrious figure of Lord Hanson. And a February 2001 statement announced the expected signing of an agreement for the supply of portable bladder scanners to a large US medical care company. Later the same month the interim figures for the seven-month period to 29th October 2000 showed a 210,000 operating loss, but this before the Mediwatch reversal. As time passed, and the shares settled gently downwards towards their offer price and well beyond, the need for a further capital injection became more palpable, and the company adopted a more recognisable mien, medical device company; even if the first diagnostic unit opening was put only on hold. For the record the company lost 830,000 in its first year of operations, (to March 2001) a figure which included 250,000 for the amortisation of goodwill. 1.2 million having been raised at 40p in September 2001, the company, the shares sagging horribly afresh, reported a 600,000 operating loss for the six-month period to October 2001, not a good headline figure even if about 30% of it came from goodwill amortisation. Turnover had amounted to 150,000, and generalities apart, the most concrete element in the investment case was an initial order for the portable bladder scanner, which was expected to assist a targeted sales increase in the second half of the year. By June 2002 572,000 more fruits of a 10p placing, strengthened the balance sheet. Despite market conditions which are dead foul, the shares were exhibiting some resilience, an indication that Mr. Stimpson had his followers - and followers expecting him to deliver. Well he didn't, recording a 2 million loss to April 2002, as, blaming a lack of capital, flying about every flag of corporate distress known - except the final one - yet - he strips out every element of cost and development expenditure prays for a quick take up of the instrument to bring him succour. The six-month period to October 2002 showed sales of 800,000 serve only to engender a 450,000 pre-goodwill amortisation operating loss, and the company, striving to complete its initial order and hoping for more of course, is planning to raise more sorely-needed capital. A pipe-opener to the latter could well be a February 2003 announcement that a previously announced initial distribution contract - it is with CR Bard, a worldwide leader in the urological field - has gone well enough to allow a five-year agreement to be entered into - one which covers the United Kingdom, France, Benelux and Scandinavia. Sales could - note that last word - run at close to 1 million a year. This was followed by a 750,000 placing at 2.5p per share, and a general financial clean up; there were also three new faces in the boardroom. 250,000 into the coffers at 2.5p followed in April 2003 - 100,000 more the next month at the same price. Come October and the full-year figures to April 2003 were eventually produced; sales three times up on those of 2002, at 1.5 million; but as the aforesaid clear-out included a 4.7 million goodwill write-off, there was a 5.5 million loss, a figure which indicated a pretty serious core deficit nonetheless. But a spreading distribution network abroad reassures in part, even if one wonders at the indifferent UK start to the present financial year to which the report felt it necessary to draw attention. Meanwhile the R&D spend continues as does the hopes vested in additional product - in 2004 there will be a "one-stop" device to be marketed. In January 2004 FDA approval for the portable device was obtained. A few days later and the six-month figures to October 2003 revealed; the distortions caused, it was said, by a restructured sales initiative being the real reason for the 50% fall in turnover, to 400,000; and by extention the 600,000 loss. With just 400,000 in the bank, the opened doors to the markets had surely better see some traffic soon.




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jfletendre - 10 Feb 2004 18:43 - 160 of 304

Hi GF -
Also regarding MDW - I wanted to input very relevant info and a poster's analysis from another website for your perusal, hope this is not inappropriate -what do you think of following.....
Regards
Anna

all posts from today
"Estimated annual turnover in US alone of $20m. Plus signing new distrubution deals for new products to other countries - news that will be coming in the same RNS. So add 50% for other turnover worldwide and thats $30m turnover. Say thats approx 17m (sterling) turnover potential for 04/05. Mkt cap of growth companise typically three times sales (its a far better guide than PE ratios for this sort of high growth stock). So that three times sales = fair value mkt cap of 3 x 17m = 51m mkt cap is fair value. Its now at a tiddly mkt cap of 10m ish !!! Multiple from here of 5 times the share price = genuine fair value mkt cap.

Plus : The bladder scanner is getting distrubuted worldwide in the same RNS so annual turnover estimate of $30m only adds in $10m from outside the US, which is very conservative.

I forgot to mention the fact that Mediwatch has operated on a profit margin of 32% year in, year out and again this past year. And a 32% margin, is, in fact, the dogs bollocks, so to speak.

(US $20m estimate widely available in AFX announcements from MDW - its a verifiable figure).


"Institute report - This company (MDW) is involved with a study that will inform future policy on screening for prostate cancer into a national programme. The study will take many years BUT results as they appear will be acted on earlier than the completed study. The bladder is the most likely area to develop cancer caused by radiation from X-rays ( The Lancet 2004) and ways to aviod this by new types of machinary is crucial. Any new ways to manage men with screen - detection of this disease will be supported by large sums of money."








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goldfinger - 10 Feb 2004 20:51 - 161 of 304

Thanks guys some excelent information there in the two last posts, nice to see it up over 35% in the last few days aswell. Looking forward to this distribution deal coming through. Watch out for scott tod results in the morning. And please dont forget BPRG.

Its amazing I come back from spain and immediatly catch a stinker of a cold.

Will do my best to keep posting but feel rotten at the moment. My appologies for not repling to questions.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 11 Feb 2004 23:09 - 162 of 304

Nice to see CUC making a recovery. Think its had a rough deal.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 12 Feb 2004 11:39 - 163 of 304

Well sold what I had left of CUC, its made me a nice profit and may re- enter after the next set of results. It just doesnt seem to be able to throw off the tradgedy of losing its excelent CEO.

cheers GF.

vasey - 12 Feb 2004 14:21 - 164 of 304

GF, next set of figures from CUC should be March, so not long to wait. They confirm they are 'in line with expectations' and those expectations were huge. Indeed I would swear a smile escaped Amanda's lips when we tried to probe any details..... She said I shouldn't read anything into the fact she smiled when quizzed about the figures, but ...... she didn't look in the least bit worried to me.

goldfinger - 12 Feb 2004 23:32 - 165 of 304

Cheers Vasey, I havent written it off by any means, Im just getting fed up of these newspaper bods giving it mark downs.

No doubt I will be back in on next results as it was one of my top three for the year.

cheers GF.

aldwickk - 13 Feb 2004 13:11 - 166 of 304

bought patagonia gold at 16.50,when will there be more news,shares dont want move,seems like there is no trades going on,any views please.[pgd].

goldfinger - 14 Feb 2004 23:08 - 167 of 304

Bioprogress , investors keep asking me if this is fully valued. The answer as to be no.

The CEO as stated on a few occasions now that further deals are in the pipeline and that acquisitions are on the agenda.

Only until we see how the whole story pans out can we judge just how much this one is worth.

For certain it looks like one heck of a ride.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 16 Feb 2004 10:53 - 168 of 304

A good start to the week for some of the bread and butter stocks on my list.

Armour group seems it is on a breakout and Service Power is up again.

The star of course is BPRG, come on lads release those details of the contract.

cheers GF.

zscrooge - 16 Feb 2004 13:11 - 169 of 304

Any update on IDD?

goldfinger - 16 Feb 2004 23:35 - 170 of 304

yup and sorry zscrooge for not getting back sooneer my sincere appologies.

Word is from my contact stick in and dont sell.

Good news coming up.


ITS up to you , but this snitch of mine is good.

By the way have you had a look at BPRG, plenty to go yet, plenty.

cheers GF.

jfletendre - 16 Feb 2004 23:53 - 171 of 304

Hi GF
Thanks for the BPRG recommendation but I could scream (and did watching the screen) because wasn't in a position to buy - can tomorrow, also still holding IDD so thanks for the news on that one - do you really feel it's not too late to get into BPRG?
Cheers
Anna

goldfinger - 17 Feb 2004 01:35 - 172 of 304

Anna, blimey, i thought you were in, AHGGHHHH.

No Anna the next deal is a big one, and theres more to come thats the biggy about this one, its not a one trick pony. Im now well over, well I cant find my calculator but i think I bought at 48p, dont like looking at purchase prices can effect sentiment.

Get in there and stop messing about.

cheers GF.

ps, please put your private message function on and I will send you through naughty e- mails.

zscrooge - 17 Feb 2004 08:57 - 173 of 304

Thanks GF. Not a large holding in IDD but RTD and PXC doing nicely.

jfletendre - 17 Feb 2004 09:02 - 174 of 304

GF - Thanks, got in BUT 1.47 - sob - my msg function's now on too
Cheers
Anna

nematode - 17 Feb 2004 18:12 - 175 of 304

Nice buys today and good consolidation.what does today's RNS mean in the scheme of things...anybody any idea's??

zscrooge - 17 Feb 2004 21:05 - 176 of 304

gmx look interesting

goldfinger - 17 Feb 2004 23:47 - 177 of 304

Just hoping for that contract news from BPRG. People keep asking is it already in the price and my answer is always no.

Well away from BPRG its not been a very good day for small caps, hope we get a better on in the morning.

cheers GF.
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