The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

The MM's are certainly taking the P*ss with the SP at the moment, but there still seem to be enough people that get scared off by any drop in the daily SP to sell, we saw huge blocks being sold off yesterday, only for the SP to open up this morning on the good news, imagine what it will open up at, if 6 when PET are awarded the tenders, or when the announce that a PSA has been signed with Jordan. I've always been optimistic about this share even when it was 31 pence, the information that I've collected since then has given my no reason to change my mind.

We've got an up-date from the Jordanian deal to come (Sonoran released theirs today)

Submission on the 3rd tender tomorrow

A decision on tenders 1 & 2 to come very soon IMHO


and yet people are still selling, perhaps I am a little more of a gambler, than those people who sold this week, but with the Jordanian deal giving us a new support level (again IMHO) I really don't see PET being as big a gamble than it was say last month.

There are so many people in this share and willing to share their research with you all, can we all be wrong? I say "NO"


Tokyo

I for one am not unduly surprised by the lack of upward movement, because the rns was`nt news to most of us and the sellers could be top slicing or taking profits of anything up to 300%, not bad!. I do think that some people are saying " 300% profit,definite is better than 1000% maybe", because this has dragged on so much longer than most thought.
I would`nt mind betting that people have sold some for profit and letting the rest roll, because you would need sectioning if you sold all your holding IMO, unless we all need sectioning for keeping ours!!

just my thoughts,
Dexter

Another 100,000 T buy, is it the same buyer as yestaday? and friday.

Agree that the RNS today was not "news" as such. There was more of a movement last week when the Jordanian cabinet minister let the cat out of the bag. So this just confirmed what we already knew. Interesting that it took so long to come out - the obvious reason is that there was a check-out with the IOM. Quite a new boy here compared with the old stagers so am still sitting on a loss. However, feel I've benefitted from a lot of relevant research. You get a gut feel, or insight (or heart-felt emotion), depending whether you are a gut, head or heart type: I'm a head man so it is insight. The most significant thing to me is that Teeling and Horgan are playing it very close to the chest and are doing everything that the IOM would want them to do. They do not come across as losers in any way. They have put the gorund-work in, built the relationships, handled the contract negotiations. They are with friends and when they shake their hands and look into the whites of their eyes (unless bleary from too much booze) they know that there is trust there. That's how I believe it is. Its not that they will get everything that they want but it will be enough to give them a very profitable future in Iraq - both for the benefit of Iraq and for their own and that of their shareholders. Do you empathise? I am not making a logical argument (which is what I probably do normally); its what I understand deep down. Sometimes you just "know"!

Eric

eric, Looking at the head heart thing, Tokyo is the head feeder alright, anything out there to find and its on the BB. Then there have been posts from others about the heart concept, (the one about the Irish struggle) the building of the relationships and now with a short wait to go before the tender news and block 6, if you where a collector of shares with a view to selling them profitably in the 'near' future you could get a job as an MM. The T trade at the end of the day (again) helps put my heart/head/bank balance in the same place, waiting not moving, just waiting

watcher

Grrrr
BLR gone the way of PRE,PCI,HNR,ROC, et al today. Tho not quite as bad.
Just waitin for FTO to fall off a cliff then that's me done. I'll have to sell me body after that.

Beasties going cheap!

Get it while its hot!

LOL.

Don't worry about short term losses with all but PRE. The others will recover in my opinion and sooner than you think perhaps.

Not to sure about PRE, it'll be a long haul I think, but it still has good assets.

Many followers of the Oil & Gas sector have had setbacks lately so you are not alone.

Good luck to you.

i got 2500 @56p then another 5000 @99.4 on friday so i am hoping for a gradual rise then contract anouncements in about 726 days time

I really hope they're not working to your timescale drunker50!!

just thinkin of the 10% tax band

Another LOL.

This is a good baord too!

I think drunker meant 7.26 days which just about takes us to an RNS at 7.00 on Wednesday, 22nd. Seems a good day to me. Maybe drunker is a prophet!

Eric

robson
not a prophet yet (still training) just dont fancy giving the taxman 40% of any gains over 8750, if this its 5 within 2 years i will have the dillema do i sell and pay 40% cgt or hold and risk a crash

morning all,
a bit in the daily sport about aman being in jordan, the geography being mountainous and sucking all of the oil out of aman. thats all there was then it just had a picture of a bird woth big tits!!!!.
dexter

LOL

There is alot of talk about these protected trades on many of the BB's this morning, and with the price movement yesterday, I could not say whether they were buys or sells, but then again the way that the SP held up yesterday was most impressive if these were sells, so I'm kinda hoping they were!!!, as it proves that the PET SP has a solid support level at around 1 pound. A protected trade can be executed anytime within the day, but is not reported until the end of trade, and as the bid price went up to 107, it could have been a sell from the morning.

OK why would someone sell so close to an announcement, do they have inside information, do they know something we don't? EASY answer "No", there are several reason why someone could have sold, there was alot of talk of people buying on T20 trades a while back, it could simply be that their settlement date has come, and they sold to avoid paying for the shares, and hopefully took a little bit of profit with it. It could also be Gartmore top slicing again, to lock in more profit for their fund, as Gartmore were buying back at 4 pence a share.


People have posted information on Protected shares on the BB, but I was actually dealing with a protected trade a couple of weeks ago, when I was buying NBR, I bought another lot of shares @ 39pence, this was not reported until the end of the day, and by that time the SP was 44pence, so obviously it was reported as a sell, when in fact it was a buy, so the simple truth is, that unless you yourself executed the protected trade yesterday it is very difficult to know for sure what it was.

As far as PET are concerned, I have come across no evidence which would lead me to believe that PET are not the favourites to walk away with at least one tender, i have listed a few positive points for me below -

1. They come from a neutral country, which is not only acceptable to Iraq, but also the UN.

2. They have complete project financing from the Japanese financial house

3. PET were the most investor friendly company ever, but after the Iraqi tender meetings, back in October, they went quiet as they were sworn to secrecy, last week we saw Soronan and PET's names mentioned in a leak from Jordan, Soronan were very happy to hype up this MOU, but again PET were very quiet. IMHO, it caused a slight panic, and PET had to check with the MOO, whether they were able to release something or not, as I'm sure these MOU's have something to do with the Iraqi deals, as we know PET have a JV with the Jordanians to study core samples, share information, etc. We then see an announcement that the MOO have submitted their recommendations to the Government, and then two days later we get the RNS from PET about the Jordanian deal - coincidence?

4. PET have spent the last 7 years forming close relationships with ministers over in Iraq. PET were encouraged by these very same people to bid for all 3 of the tenders.

5. Reading through any newspaper article on these tenders, PET is the only company named, the oil ministers refuse to name any other. the Telegraph article suggested that PET had no competitors on at least one of the tenders (Oh how I would love that to be true!!!)


Well make up your own mind whether you think PET will secure one of the tenders or not, but I'm keeping all of my shares until we know one way or the other, as the evidence speaks for itself


Tokyo

As a pure observer; and with very little more than a passing academic interest in the market mechanics of PET, l am afraid i am utterly unconvinced of the strength of thier case.l think PET will be handsomely rewarded/ reimbursed in some way for thier past endeavours in lraq; but fields of this size need PROVEN players. And PET are far from that.Lets face facts .They are no more than a second rate minion with what would be a virtual mercanary hotch botch of unqaulified personnel Now enter swing producer - Norway . l think you will find BOTH those big contracts will end up in thier hands .As late as saturday night lraqi oil officials in Oslo and the look on the Norwegian minister of Energy said it all. PET Eat your heart out !!!

french,
what evidence do you have that norwegian companies are even in the frame, i know that there was some meetings etc earlier in the year. norway are held in high esteem in oil production, but the contracts PET have gone for are in engineering, not production.

tokyo,
very good post, as usual!, did you manage to put snrn on your watchlist?
dexter

dexter - thanks I put it on my watchlist via comdirect, but as it is not on LSE couldn't put it on moneyam, as for the Norway connection, i know the government have been over there for talks, but once again it has been the MOO that has been dealing with these projects Development, not production, it has only recently gone to the Government for the rubber stamp, if Norwegian firms had been involved in the tender process don't you think we would have heard something over the past year, even a little so & so company is involved in the tender process, and yet we have heard, nothing, I don't want to be overly positive, but again the facts speak for themselves!!!

Tokyo