From AD^FN
elliot66 - 11 Nov'05 - 22:54 - 7445 of 7447
Anom
"with probable extractions to date topping 30,000 carats, based on 2 full months since they started cutting fresh kimberlite at 15k per month (and that's a conservative estimate)".
I am a concerned holder:
1. If the company is 'stockpiling' when the market is trashing the shareprice then why not announce how many carats they have in stock, because that would be good news when it is very much needed. If EPD has big stocks what logical reason is there not to announce? So worst case is production has been crap and so actually EPD is selling all it has produced. Ok there might be 'stock' of minimal quantities that mean technically the market has not been mislead.
2. In the RNS the Company said its production was from 'previously worked kimberlite........not tailings and new diamonds' (paraphrasing). If previously worked kimberlite is not tailings what the hell is it? My uncle works in the diamond game and is worried about a company that does not seem to be able to get its basic terminology right.
3. From the RNS: "The implication of the new South African tax and other legislation
relating to the importation of rough diamonds to South Africa for sale are
currently unclear and the Company is reviewing further plans for marketing its
diamonds in Johannesburg".......
Is this more softening up for bad news?.......ie 'we might not be able to market diamonds in SA so that's another reason why we might announce in Jan that we are only selling a limited amount" rather than "production is lower than forecast and we don't have the diamonds to sell"?
4. The RNS again: All rough diamonds now being produced from the primary kimberlite currently being mined at Liqhobong are being stockpiled for the first major sale in Antwerp in January 2006 and an announcement in respect of this sale will be made after consultation with the Government of Lesotho.
More sftening up?.........ie we blame Lesotho sometime later that we are selling less diamonds than planned.
5 The RNS again: the Company's mining activities and
processing of primary kimberlite are continuing at planned rates, with full
capacity of 65 tonnes per hour set to be achieved by the end of the year.
Note how this does not say diamonds are being produced at planned rates, rather that kimberlite is going through the plant at planned rates. If I was epd and diamond production was at planned rates I would say so. What reason is there not to?
If anybody has rational answers to the above I am all ears. Even better if rational and I can be shown to be wrong.
Anomalous - 12 Nov'05 - 14:03 - 7446 of 7447
>elliot66
I maybe able to answer all of your questions.
1. Diamond companies are generally secretive about the stocks they hold, for a number of valid reasons.
Firstly and most obvious of all, they don't want criminals to find out as it might be too tempting a target to steal. Secondly they can't declare the cash equivalent of any stockpile until it has been valued.
They may have an idea of the amount of carats in weight, but it is deceptive to then use this to apply a value for the balance sheet or mkt cap, as the price of diamonds varies with the size of the individual stones, together with their clarity and colour. Even the majors whose security is considerably more robust, do not declare the exact amount they are holding at any one time.
I do agree that EPD could have worded the last RNS far better. There was much that could have been excluded and even included. It seems that they were either badly advised or someone was not aware of the result of their statement. By saying as little as they did, they invited others to speculate the worst.
One of the main reasons why the share price dropped from the 50p band earlier this year, was down to the lack of news. The market had expected a mine-start announcement by April at the very latest. When it did not arrive, they assumed that things were not on schedule and that further fund raising might be necessary.
Their failure to reassure the shareholders cost all of us a great deal of value. If the CEO wants to blame anyone for selling at 20p, then he should blame himself, as he carries ultimate responsibility for any lack of investor relations.
Getting back to your questions though, you can not read into the RNS that they are not producing diamonds or that they have attempted to mislead the market. There is ample evidence that the market prices for 'indian' diamonds (smaller than 25 points), has declined and it would not be in the best interests of the company as a whole, to sell while the prices are low.
Rubstone posted on the other BB that 'lower end goods' prices has softened. This doesn't necessarily mean that it will stay that way. Prices may improve and EPD may be able to sell a far larger parcel in the coming months.
2. EPD are using the terminology for their industry, but you may not be understanding what they mean, because you have mis-interpreted it. Again this is a failure in communications on EPD's part, because they have to assume that some of their investors are not savvy with the correct jargon. It would have been better if they had explained the source of the diamonds.
Previously worked kimberlite can mean material that was extracted for any number of reasons, such as;
A) for the drill samples
B) for the bulk samples
C) to clear the site for operations.
Minegem did two bulk samples, one of Satellite and the other of Main. They did recover a number of diamonds during these samples. The recent processing of the tailings recovered even more, because Minegem's equipment was not as efficient as the new installation set up by EPD. Remember that our new plant is virtually the Rolls Royce of processing plants, but purchased at the price of a Mini, or low end Mondeo!
I would guess that in this instance, when the company states that they are selling diamonds from previously worked kimberlite, they are referring to the diamonds recovered by Minegem in both bulk sample and the core samples. They need a representative parcel and 3,000 carats seems perfectly acceptable. If this is the bulk sample diamonds, then it will give us a pretty good clue as to the average carat price we might see in the future.

3. You have mis-interpreted the meaning here. It has not been clarified whether the new South African tax applies to diamonds being imported into the RSA for valuation and selling, followed by export out of the RSA to their buyer.
Liqhobong diamonds are not the produce of the Republic of South Africa, but of the Kingdom of Lesotho.

The Lesotho Royal Family - Princess Senate, Queen 'Masenate and King Letsie III
If the RSA law states that ALL diamonds exported from South Africa are subject to the 15% tax, regardless of their origin, then EPD will naturally export ALL the Liqhobong diamonds to Antwerp instead, to avoid paying the 15% out of their profits.
I'm afraid that the South African Government have shot themselves in the foot here. Despite the fact that there are still major deposits of diamonds in the RSA, all the new tax is doing is to encourage further development outside the RSA, whilst restricting the amount being exported from South Africa.
You're making assumptions about the switch which are unfounded. You simply can not read into EPD's announcement that the production is lower than expected, simply because they are reconsidering selling through Johannesburg. It is purely a matter of the 15%.
4. Again you are reading too much into the announcement. The Government of Lesotho GOL is EPD's partner in the project. The GOL provide the license for EPD to export the diamonds, together with the certification.
Naturally, the GOL are expecting cashflow from royalties, taxes and their share of the profits. They must be consulted to advise them why the company is intending to alter the amount exported in the first few parcels, because they must be interested to know when they can expect their first revenue.
The company has a valid reason for holding back. If they sold now, they might get a much lower price than waiting a month or so. The company has enough working capital, so they can wait a good while longer to see the prices stabilise. When the time is right, then they will take the parcels to the market. By the way, it is the GOL that makes up the parcels.
The company may extract the diamonds and hold them on-site until they have a reasonable amount, but they have to be processed by the GOL for (Kimberley) certification prior to export. If EPD wants to sell a smaller parcel, then they would have to consult with the GOL and arrange for the correct parcels sizes to be produced.
The company is not going to blame the GOL for selling less diamonds later on. You are mis-understanding the RNS.
5. You need to understand how a diamond producing company refers to it's operational rates and capacity.
Simply put, the rate at which kimberlite ore is processed is more important for operational reasons, than the rate at which diamonds are found. I know that sounds odd, because it is the diamonds that we are after. Let me explain.
As you may know, the distribution of diamonds in the rock is not completely even. Some areas may be richer in diamonds than others. That is why diamond companies have to do bulk samples and feasibility studies, to find the average 'grade' of diamonds. This is to determine if the rock is economic to mine.
When processing, they refer to the amount of kimberlite ore processed per hour rather than the diamonds recovered, because the quantity of rock maybe a constant, but the quantity of diamonds found can vary. This variation may not be huge, because the bulk sample has given them an idea of the amount of diamonds to expect, but when discussing the operational capacity or processing rate, the mining industry usually refers to the throughput of ore.
Just because they have followed industry convention and discussed ore processing rates, does not mean that you can interpret this to mean that they are not recovering the diamonds at the grades indicated by the previous exploration and feasibility work. If the company was producing far less, then this would be something they would have to report to the shareholders in due course, as it is price sensitive news. They have NOT reported this, so you can not assume that anything is wrong.
The RNS says that production is at planned rates at the moment. The company planned to slowly work up to full capacity in stages. They don't want to break the equipment and cause a temporary production shutdown for repairs by running before they can walk. The whole point of processing the tailings was not just because there were still diamonds in there, or that it was occupying space in the tailings dump that they needed for the newly processed fresh kimberlite. The tailings were 'soft' rock that had been processed once. It would put less strain on the equipment and enable them to bring the plant to maximum planned capacity, far earlier than if they went all out with fresh (hard) kimberlite from the start.
IMO, it might be far better for EPD if they held back their diamonds till they have a major parcel. A really big parcel, to take to Antwerp in December. The more press attention that the company gets, the liklier that the market will notice that EPD is finally generating huge volumes of cashflow and that the share price does not reflect the value of this revenue.
EPD's production is mostly lower end goods. The smaller stones that are below 1 carat and sent to India to be cut into tiny diamonds like these:


Any larger stones are going to cause a splash. Rubstone says that "good quality yellow diamonds will be well received." As you know, Liqhobong does produce quite a few yellow stones. They may not all be fancy colours, but they might attract reasonable prices.
As was seen in the previous posts, good quality fancies do attain very high prices. The higher the clarity, the better the price and I would not be surprised to hear from EPD in the next few months that they've either found some larger oversize or that they have some more fancies.
Either way, this news would cause a significant increase in the revenue and could cause a spurt of demand and speculation in the share price. You only have to remember what the news of Letseng's oversize did to all other diamond shares, to understand what this means. Actually holding EPD if such news breaks would be thrilling, because there could be intense speculation about their value. We shall see.