I have just come across this absolute gem. I don't normally get this excited, but must share it with others. Cobra is the name, listed on Aim and a market cap of 30 million. Just been awarded a US patent for a system that allows people to take previously injected drugs in tablet form. Already profitable was floated off from MLB last year (and given their fundraising today they may regret ever letting this one go).
Collins Stewart are predicting 1.8 million this year and 3.1 million next year, though i can see those numbers being left behind. The company is both exciting and defensive because some of the products that can be taken are against cancer, anthrax and other potentially fatal diseases. (Hoping of course there will never be another terrorist outrage but even then this stock would be one to have onside.) Turnover has doubled in the last twelve months and the potential really is amazing. Biotechs not usually my style but this one is already profitable and i just have to have some in my portfolio.

Gents,

As before, stick to the share and not fellow posters.

Ian

10 Dec'03 - 23:26 - 117 of 194
Well here's another for you Spectrum on Ofex a great recovery stock. Currently circa 20p....well worth checking out

Just for the record Ian, Third Eye said the above to money am readers. Not 25p, (though he must have thought it worth it to advise people to look at 20p, knowing its spread probably at least 21p to buy) but most certainly a lot further from 12.5p. now 13.75p. I note he has finally been banned from unquoted.

Ian I sent you a p-m a couple of weeks ago btw.

Now happy to return thread to Cobra, and accept i should have advised people to sell here when I clearly said sell elsewhere at 120p; (which is what i did).

Harwick,

I will be monitoring this thread from now on.

Ian

What has Spectrum got to do with this thread?

Worth looking at, doesn't say Buy, iyt says Worth looking at.

I bought at 12.5p & a search on Unquoted will verify this.


In fact I rarely say buy anbout any stock, although I have about Britannia up 355% & did about Sion up 300% in the bear market.

Hopefully this thread will now return to Cobra rather than Third Eye?

- this thread is COBRA - Hawick CBF was one you were excited about in Jan04 about 1.20 I think - now some bad news has been received, what is your take and DID you invest in Jan? -

Hangon you clearly have not read the whole thread. I was keen at 140p and said sell at 120p. Britannic have reduced their holding to just under a million. if they want shot of the rest that will continue to create overhang even at this level. Not time to look again and management needs to be shaken up meantime. Profit warning said break even then a loss of 1.8 million got announced.........

A bit of advice hawick, if you want to defend yourself that you said sell, any chance you could actually post it on MoneyAM rather than investors guess to which bulletin board you might have posted it on?









(Same for your rec on Cobra under Scotland on Aimquoted would be useful too btw)

ADMINISTRATORS you said you were watching this thread well surely the last post by thirdeye goes over the top and is not about the company but is a persional attack, just how long is it going to go before you give him his 3rd warning and deprive him of his posting rights?????????????????????????.

cheers GF.

Maybe you should both stop attacking each other? It's getting a little tedious here.

All,

I have watched this dispute across several threads for the past few weeks, and have had cause to comment on a number of occassions, as several posters have over stepped the mark. This has been the case for all involved on both sides of the discussion.

I am issuing a final warning for all those who have been involved - If I have cause to intervene with regard to any poster again, I will remove their access to these boards for a period of 24 hours. If I then have cause to warn that person any further I will remove their access from this part of the website completely.

I hope that I have made myself clear, and I hope that you all have a good day.

Regards

Ian Taylor
Customer Support Manager
MoneyAM

Leaving all other things aside this is a Bio-tech that is producing product in several areas. I think it was a part of ML Labs and some have suggested they should not have sold this business. The reduction in shareholding by Britannic is hardly a source of panic, having increased their holding some months ago to 6%+ their new holding is only just under 5% hardly likely to create an overhang or did the MM's panic?
Today, a Director bought 20,000 shares - OK not really newsworthy amount but it shows something. Hardly panic selling and I note the price is up 5%.
I class this small Bio along with Protherics (ie actually selling their stuff) - the fall-back in [CBF] US operation is unfortunate and has prompted this crisis IMHO - but many companies have dissapointments. I just don't think the Market read the earlier RNS since there is nothing "new" - that's my take.
I have bought at 29p so with spread I still not in profit, but hey it's only the first day.
I didn't understand "why" you thought it was a sell, was it the "warning" that alarmed you? The share-price had increased quite a bit, so maybe it was a tad overvalued. Now, though the NAV is 54p and the cash per share is above the Market price; can this be so bad right now?
I think it's been oversold but there is still a risk some other news is yet to be flushed out. However with such a fall it looks safe to me - I hope so.

You're right I read only the first page of comments - from Jan04 so this seemed reasonable to me.

Thank you for such an intelligent and cogent reply hangon, would someone else.......

I thought it a sell at 120p after the warning, which talked of break even. And then the loss came in at 1.8 million which did nothing for my confidence! Institutions are awfully slow to forgive and I feel management have let down investors badly. Trust is a key factor in share price performance and right now Cobra (rather like Raft) faces a big uphill struggle to win that back. Talk of sorting things out seems vague and that worries me from this managment! It'll be ok in 2005 all seems as i say vague.

All that said; you are spot on. A Director has bought. The nav is over 50p including a healthy cash position (but they cannot afford to continue burning it like they have done). And most likelable are some of the patents especially the syringe free ones.

There is hope therefore, and hence my interest (not financial) continues at these levels, but i would not buy back until i see some real evidence through at least one, preferably two, of the following: newsflow, numbers or management changes, of a turnaround.

Thanks, Hawick. You may be right yet about management, but I think there is a clear distinction between management that is after share-price growth (by newsflow) and those that are growing a sensible business.
Leaving Options aside, the salaries these Directors receive is not massive. Indeed considering the "cash" position and sales/turnover, they are modest. There are plenty of other AIM stocks that could learn from these people - don't kill the Goose until it's well laying!
AS far as the News is concerned I'm of the opinion they expected the US sales to increase as they had earlier, maybe not being "close-enough" to their customers to realise purchases would fluctuate. The Management is probably focused on "Bio" - rather than "Sales" - for which they may need to recruit someone that is already close to their target market and living there.
When a Company is experienced in one area (Bio) it doesn't give them enough skill in pandering to the Market/Brokers/City/Investors....we each see things differently. Way back in Feb they told the Market about the fall-off - and whilst your interpretation was spot-on I wonder if that was about the Market "perception" (in these troubled times) rather than a real fall in the Company fundamentals?
The Q in my mind should be to those who were buying the Stock in Dec03/Jan04 (incl the New Director), when the price was 1.30 level - were they buying the Company, or a slice of anticipated profit. ( maybe a bit of both)
Now with one sector of their business lower, and some effect on profit, is the current price all the business is worth? ( Let's assume there is "no" profit this year!).
I think this will concentrate Management into see that they have two businesses:
1) The development of Bio products, research etc and
2)Developing repeat Sales and being cosy with the customer needs (this is not done easily)
It may take a year or two, but by then the business will be Motoring IMHO and cbf should have a potential TO or at least a well-oiled source of dividend.
They have only been in existance a short while and are showing good signs of flowering - many other AIM stocks are all promises with little rootstock and Directors bleeding the thing dry.
I hope that CBF will be one to stay the course, so that Directors and staff will collect their well-earned Pensions.

I'm sorry you are holding-off for now, since this knock may cause a retraction of the shareprice for some while. Indeed it is rare for a small company to recover more that 50% of the drop - so roughly 60p ( put 20p spread on this ) - but then some of their products are closely aligned with the World News and this may be a substantial revenue-stream: Management should not rely on this, but should seek to broaden their customer-base. The News (tues),about African Debt and Aids could be a substantial boost to companies active in this treatment. Where else can you buy a slice of this action for 30p, by a Company that seems to be honest and frugal?
By way of a caution it would be nice to hear any statement from the Company.
Regards

What is Ian Taylor complaining about? hawick's post read OK to me/
/
Further thoughts: Cobra BioManufacturing
Looking at the sharegraph I notice that there is a trend down (towards?) 1 from an earlier high (presumably the post-launch good-time) - If we ignore the hump centred arround DEC03 - which was a long-term blip IMHO since it was being fueled by the expectation of huge sales which had already started.
In Feb04 reality took over and the price ignored this hump (which was now all dashed hope)- to settle at 60p -ish. When the May04 figures came out the Market had been hoping Management would say - "...it's all OK chaps, profits are rolling..."
Yet in reality the Hump was a temporary illusion, gone in a flash like the sales, and what the company is doing now is to develop their other strengths - something perhaps they should have done from day1 - but when you are selling good stuf to a customer it is hard to divert your attention to a small prospect - no-one will thank you if the big order is lost.
The jury is out on this one, although I for one am hoping - but they have a new facility in Oxford (it was the old British Bio plant I understand), so there is a chance that the recent Rights Issue (at 80p ouch!)...is being used to build capacity for the future. That can't be a bad thing - just have to wait a little longer for those profits....now when punters sent off their cheques for shares at 80p were they thinking these shares are bound to go higher? Of course they did - so why not top-up with say 20% of whatever you paid and buy another 60% of the new issue.
Suppose you bought 1000 shares at the rights issue (=800) then 20% is 160 = say 533 ignoring charges. So for 1Grand you have 1533 shares - that's about 65pence each - not a bad discount to the 80p you thought was good value.
.The sooner you buy them the better, for others may spot this logical bargain.... of course, if you now think Management is incompetant..... but I think they are telling it as it is. With little experience at giving Bad News, it's not surprising they have ruffled the market.....now they need to slowly build on their strengths and get their other technologies to the Customers' attention.
I note that rival Investors Chronicle said SELL ( having been a bit bullish only recently) whereas I think Shares said Hold; I can't see the logic in selling now the price is so low - that advice might have been sound at 60p, but now the Market has over-reacted IMHO, so selling will only crystalise a loss that (should) be reversed in the comming months. The shares are up from last week after some small purchases from Directors - in total 27k - but considering these Directors are not paid much (good?) they are at least showing some signs of confidence....the shares are likely to drift up over the comming months again IMHO. It may be a long wait as the Market is obviously not amused.

these are too cheap now. Another director buy yesterday,(they must know the figures 3 months to June & the orders for the next three months) plus this news from their website yesterday which didn't seem to make an RNS.

28 June 2004

Cobra Biomanufacturing signs agreement to manufacture Coleys Toxin

Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and the Cancer Research Institute to develop cancer vaccine

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc, the International manufacturer of biopharmaceuticals, announced an agreement between the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and its collaborator the Cancer Research Institute to produce Coleys Toxin cancer vaccine for clinical trials.

Cancer vaccines direct the immune system to eliminate tumours and are re-emerging as candidates for cancer therapy. Cobra will produce Coleys Toxin from two different bacteria under controlled conditions. A modern and regulatory compliant manufacturing process for the vaccine has been developed, and state of the art monitoring will be utilized to assess the vaccines immunological efficacy. The entire project is scheduled to take 6 months.

David Thatcher, Chief Executive of Cobra Biomanufacturing, commented:

We are delighted that the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and its collaborator the Cancer Research Institute, have chosen Cobra as its manufacturing partner. Both Institutes have a strong international scientific reputation and are at the forefront of developing improved cancer therapies.

Dr Gerd Ritter, Associate Director of the Ludwig Institutes Office of Clinical Trials Management commented:

"Cobra has an impressive track record in the safe and effective manufacture of diverse biologicals. We were impressed by the Cobra teams innovative approaches for the manufacture of this challenging microbial cancer vaccine, and as an academic organization we liked its partnership style of working. We look forward to a successful collaboration."

- ENDS -

Director buying of late has been disapointing. This most-recent is barely into four figures....a real statement with ca 50k+ is what I'm looking for. "Sell the kids + car etc. slap it on the Company".
Interesting RNS, so thanks Thirdeye for drawing attention to it, seems they can deal with the day to day stuff as one would hope. I am a holder of this stock.

Hi hangon sorry I didn't get back to you. Good post. It is still an investment psychology thing, for me. They gave a warning, said they'd break even and lost 1.8 million. The cashburn is a concern and i can't see institutions giving this a look again until management prove themselves to the City.

As you say they seem able to handle the day to day business but that is a small start to a very long repair job. It is on my watchlist but I'd hate to jump in too early and then see they have still not got a grip at the next results, because then the price could go through the floor, even from here another 50%.

Better managements elsewhere more worthy of support imho, for now. Could see these break below 20p in next few months, then if next results indicate a recovery I might be interested again. Good luck though, promising products and patents, some cash.

Be nice if some posters checked their facts to see how much they actually did lose second half, no wonder they sold :-)


Hangon, CBF expect a meaningful improvement in the second half, so that would have to result in a profit if it materialises.

Furthermore I look at CBF like this, some were attracted with a 30m valuation, now you can buy your share for pro-rata circa 5m, what have you lost for saving circa 25m?

Well, 1.2m loss, & a big downturn in the DNA section. However there are three other sectors in this infant business which are still growing strongly.


On a risk reward basis, it's speculative, but a pretty good gamble in my opinion.



Also you can buy at mid price, market makers are looking for business in these quiet times so, negotiation should take place & the spread shouldn't put anyone off, only for those who have done their own research though.




To summarise a 25m saving (at one sixth of the price it was) in paying for the company in an exciting infant industry, appears a fair speculation to me.

Or put another way: .....stripping cash out at least at March interims using today's market cap of circa 5m, the business is valued at 1.2m ( circa)


So for a business that was valued at say 25m (excluding cash) is now valued at 1/20th @ circa 1.2m.

Falling back again, failing to hold recent lows. No worthwhile support from institutional backers, loss of faith in management.

I hope for all investors the next results can start the repair job. But mms must be stuck with a mountain of unwanted stock. Worth waiting to get these at still significantly lower level, if the institutions eventually return.

Sorry hangon to be so down on this one, but it looks a long road ahead. I really do hope to get back in again at some point. Up to management to prove themselves first, at least for me.