We have noticed that quite often when the number of shares bought exceeds the number of shares sold the share price sometimes goes down ( and in some cases by quite an amount eg African Eagle AFE today..11/2) Yet some share prices increase when there are more sells than buys eg African Diamond AFD, African Gold AFG today etc. Can someone please explain why this is, as the number or buys and sells has in the past been key to our trading strategy. Is the information on Ample or Money AM concerning trades not accurate or are we missing something. Any answers / explanations would be really welcome.

But if they've bought a million, surely they'd be dropping the price all the way through?

The original question relates to building a strategy based on buys and sells. ie using the buy/sell analysis to predict price movements. My point is that the price at any time already reflects any imbalance - and so I question the relevance of the analysis as a predictive tool.

brain2brain also points out that sometimes the price moves in the opposite direction to that expected by analysing trades - so in a way the questioner is drawing the same conclusion - there is no correlation. The only things that matter are the price and volume - the individual trades are a red herring. The price at which the latest trade was executed is the best guide we have to the value of the share. And the volume shows us how 'committed' the market is to that price.

He also asks whether the information on ample and moneyam is not accurate - I believe that all LSE reported trades are fed through to both of these sites, and each reports them accurately, after making a stab as to whether the trade is a 'buy' or a 'sell'. So long as punters want this analysis, these sites are bound to carry on supplying them.

Gausie

There were only two trades this a.m. of 48 & 55. What's going on? Is someone taking the p*~# ?

Generally speaking more buyers than sellers must equal price rise i.e.the
economic law of supply/demand.

Thank u abbie.

Concise, precise, and utter twaddle.

If there is more folk wanting to buy than sell, then the price will
go up to attract sellers until it reaches a new equilibrium.

If there is more folk wanting to sell than buy, then the price will
go down to attract buyers until it reaches a new equilibrium.

The higher the volume, the higher the demand and the more powerfull
will be the move.

This is what other posters in this thread are also saying, IMHO.

But the 'Buy and Sell' columns have absolutely nothing to do
with any of this. All they do is record a transaction between a Buyer
and a Seller and are as about much use as a chocolate fireguard.

Melnibone.

I like the idea of a chocolate fireguard!!

Mmmmmmmmmmmm.

:-)))

Gausie - twaddle ?
Are you suggesting the economic law of supply/demand is twaddle ?

I bit of illumination, if I may so venture.

Do remember that the buy/sell indication on a trade is a decent guess made by a little algorithm in MoneyAM's software. If it's too close to call, it gets put into the ? don't know category.

The reason for this is simple: the data feed from the exchange doesn't say if the trade is a buy or sell (and clearly, it is both, it depends where you're sitting). Think of a Market Maker to Market Maker trade: how do you classify that, as it doesn't include you (the punter).

It's just like the share price: it depends whether you're buying or selling.

B2b,
AFE is big blue today !

Thanks Safiande.

Its been a long wait. Lets hope it continues

B2B

This was mentioned in t1ps.
On Wednesday, www.t1ps.com revealed that Chaco Resources, the cash shell that used to be known as Goldmines of Sardinia, may have a second deal in the pipeline after a reversal of Paraguayan oil exploration acreage into the group. Market whispers suggest that the second deal is in Libya. After we broke the news to a wider audience here on UK-Analyst, the shares are rose 0.35p to 2.17p. Thursday's scoop from the UK's top financial website was that African Eagle is likely to be announcing some cracking drilling results from its Eagle Eye copper deposit in Zambia as early as next week. African Eagle shares jumped 1p to 15.25p on the revelation. For more hot tips like these click here.

It really is beyond belief at times, the mismatch between buys, sells and share price movements. I understand from all the posts I have read here that much of the formentioned have to be taken with a pinch of salt. But how do you reconcile this mornings figures with AFE. There have been over 250 000 buys and one sell of about 10 000. What has the share price done? Absolutely nothing. Unbelievable.
Any observations would be welcome. In the meantime I am going for a lie down.

B2B

Not sure if MM's are holding price back to let favoured clients pick up stock, or a sell being worked through.

B2B

The above is one possible explanation from another BB. Also I believe that the 100k+ buy this a.m. was executed on Friday p.m. Nevertheless there is little logic to it.

As an indicator Market Makers do carry positions, not necessarily to take a position themselves but it could be simply a surplus or deficit due to that days/ weeks trading.

So today there have been more buys than sells so why has the stock not gone up, it may simply be because the market makers have:

a) surplus stock carried over from last week
b) a seller in the wings who wants to move size through the market and has informed the market
c) covering a hedge taken out ( i.e. spread bet or CFD position)
d) or none of the above and they simply are not bothered about trades totalling no more than 50,000 on a stock with market cap of 5m+!

Hope this helps


Mike

Many thanks Mike.

The figures stand at 600 000 buys and 17 000 sells at present ................ and yes you've guessed, no chnage in share price.

B2B

PS what is the NMS on a share like this?

NMS is 5000 shares

Mike

Some very strange trades on AFE today within the total trade of almost 2 million shares so far today & the mid price is down by 7%.

I cant work it out either Just look at EEN 338.581 Buy's 181.560 sell's and the price jumped 17p and i think it done the same yesterday. How do people know when to buy shares like this. No announcements nothing. Anyone sho can tell me it would be appreciated Thanks

Real roller coaster today after the early RNS