http://www.regentherapeutics.com/regen

Consider a company with a market cap of around 10 million which could well in the future be generating revenue well in excess of that figure every year. Interested then read on and DYOR on Regen Therapeutics.

For some time now I have been a shareholder of RGT who have been working with a patented product Colostrinin as a treatment for Alzheimers. Tests so far would seem to indicate that it is a success and they are currently refining a pharmaceutical product.

Meantime they are also pushing forward on the nutraceutical front as tests have shown positive results in respect of mild cognitive disorders (memory loss etc). Further research is being carried out regarding other major illnesses. As at mid 2007 a launch is scheduled in the US for Q4 and there are rumours of an earlier launch in Australia possibly imminent based on the fact that adverts are already starting to appear see:- http://www.quantumevolution.com.au/oscommerce/index.php

They have also acquired a contract research organisation which should mean that research money for clinical trials that had previously been spent will now be kept inside the group.

February 2006 has seen Regen acquire the rights, following a feasibility study, in respect of other uses for a well known drug (Zolpidem) that has undergone phase 2 clinical trials where results are expected around August 2007. The new use relates to the positive effects that have been seen when treating stroke victims with the drug. There has been a lot of press interest which a web search should reveal.

An interview with the chairman (Percy Lomax) in the summer of 2004 talked of a nutraceutical product producing royalty payments of 10% on a possible 100 million sales per annum. The pharmaceutical version which also requires a licensing partner will if successful have projected sales of 1-5 billion again which would generate royalty payments to Regen. I leave you to contemplate just how high the share price would be if this were the case but suffice to say it will be many many times what it is now.

Acquisition (Oct 2004) of Guildford Clinical Pharmacology unit demonstrates not only that they are progressive and expanding but also thinking strategically for GCPUL being a research based company no doubt Regen can now keep such costs within the group whereas before testing had to be paid for elsewhere. This acquisition also means that they have revenue and are therefore no longer a "virtual" company.

A share issue in July 2007 means that they should now have funds in hand to take them through to cash generation. Hopefully this means we have seen the last of the issues excepting any used by way of acquiring profitable companies.

The North America link is an interesting one as perhaps in readiness for the launch of Colostrinin out there Regen set up an ADR programme which became effective in March 2005. ADR's ( American Depositary Receipts) are a way for US investors to buy shares in UK companies. In Regen's case one ADR is equivalent to 200 Regen UK shares so when an ADR is purhased the Bank of New York will buy the proportionate number of UK shares and convert them into ADR's for the investor. At present this is not a factor however with the launch of Colostrinin out there if successful it may mean that US investors will want to be involved in the company and that will have a direct positive impact on our share price. In the US Colostrum (from which Colostrinin is produced )is already a recognised and popular health product and so demand should be good.

So all in all exciting times ahead. There can be few shares around that offer the potential of this one although as always DYOR and good luck with your investments whatever you decide here.

Yes - this is good news. The deal in itself looks good being a 250,000 purchase price for a company with at least 50,000 p.a profits. The real value however is in the strategic nature of the acquisition. The new company are involved in the gastro-intestinal area which fits in very well with other uses for Colostrum based products. It will very possibly fit in with the plans for a nutraceautical product in the near future.

Regen are now no longer just a one product company. There is still all the other anticipated news to come re scale up, licensing partner etc as well as the fact that the release gives the clear indication that this is only the first acquisition. It will take a little bit of time for the news to sink in with the market as it was not what had been expected however it is very good news and shows that Regen are very proactive and thinking on a wide scale. It will only be up from here.

Next week might be interesting when the consideration shares are admitted to the market. Based on an anticipated mid-market price of 3.25p on close of business this thursday, RGT will need to issue approx 7.7 million new shares. In theory, this should dilute the current sell price by (only) about 2.5%. Could be worth stocking up, but the question is when. Before or after the issue of the consideration shares?

It is an unusual situation for the next couple of days. Regen will be wanting the share price to rise whilst GCPUL will be hoping it falls so they get more shares.

I wonder if Regen are prohibited from releasing any more news that might influence the price as it would seem unfair if the deal is done and then before settlement date they release some further news which sends the price northwards and then GCPUL in effect lose out. To this end I wonder how long ago the deal was actually put together albeit only announced today. The rumour was out a few weeks ago so could explain the absence of other news - just a theory.

I think that the price seems cheap both in terms of return on investment and taking into account the strategic importance of bringing such a company under the Regen roof. It may well be that factored into the equation was the potential upturn of the share price in the near future which would mean that GCPUL had not been undersold.

Either way - come Friday they will be working in harness to our mutual benefit.

50,000 profit on 1,000,000 turnover does not seem that great and I therefore wonder whether there will be any cost saving in the takeover which will increase these profits.

"We and the management of GCPUL have significant plans to expand GCPUL as part of the ReGen Group. We continue to actively examine further revenue generating and
profitable businesses".

This statement implies that they have been working together or at least in discussion for a while. (Significant plans not being put together overnight). It further implies that it is the first of the acquisitions and if I recall they had previously referred to "seeking" but now they are "examining" further revenue generating etc. Just a turn of phrase perhaps but then again even though the interims mentioned the seeking of acquisitions we didn't really pick up on the comment at the time.

Exciting times ahead.

share price has droppd from significantly from early October. Would have thought new was positive? What is the next piece of news we can expect?

Having a boring day so i thought I'd analyse all of the news so far and see what we could expect in the futre.

Scientific/Development news.

Looking at the AGM/Prelim statements Sir Percy said they were working on various on going programmes.

From the last AGM statement..

"We now have ongoing science/development
programmes at the following":

* University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston,
Texas, USA.
* Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY, USA.
* Open University - UK.
* Proteome Sciences Plc - UK.
* St George's Hospital, London - UK.
* EiRx Therapeutics Plc - Ireland.

Looking at the interim results in September...

"In this regard we expect an in-vitro Study
evaluating the use of the compound in Parkinson's
Disease to start in the third quarter of the year."

"On 5 April a new method for the extraction of
ColostrininTM from colostrum was published in The
Protein Journal"...."We expect to issue a full report
on this during the fourth quarter of 2004".


Research Updates received so far.....

20/05/04 08:39 UKREG Research Update
In-vitro study - "Can prevent the aggregation of
beta amyloid"
In-vitro study - "Can block the proliferation and
promote the differentiation of primary cells into
neuronal cells"
Carried out by the University of Texas and Roswell
Park Cancer Institute

16/06/04 07:00 UKREG Research Update
In-vivo Study in Chicks - "ColostrininTM was shown
to have a very strong effect in enhancing memory"
Carried out by the Open University

22/07/04 07:01 UKREG Research Update
In-vitro Study - "Can prevent the aggregation of
beta-amyloid and prevent its toxic effect on cells"
Carried out by St Georges Hospital

Research Updates still to come

* EiRx Therapeutics Plc - Ireland.
* Proteome Sciences Plc - UK.
In-Vitro study Parkinson's Didease
Report - New method for the extraction of
ColostrininTM (due "Fourth quarter of 2004"

Commercial News.

Looking at past company statements it is interesting to see the progress regarding progress to a licensing deal.

12th Feb 2004

"..will place ReGen in a position to begin the next
stage of clinical development around the end of
2004"

".....working with a licensing company to assist with
finding such a partner"

17th March

"We believe that the publication of the article
communicates.... to a much wider audience,
including potential development and/or marketing
partners".

22nd March

"...may carry out research into the use of Colostrinin
for other medical treatments"

"..treatment of other diseases including: Multiple
Sclerosis,Parkinson's Disease and Amyotrophic
Lateral Sclerosis (Lou Gehrig's Disease)".

"...consider research into these areas at the
appropriate time, possibly in collaboration with a
development partner"

23rd March 2004 (from US Presentation)

"We assume development work.....is taken on by a
third party by the end 2004/1 QTR 2005"

20th April

"Our agent has identified a significant number of
potential partners... progress continues in this
area".

15th September

"...have established contact with a number of
potential partners ..discussions are ongoing"

"the more medical, scientific and commercial inputs
we have the better deal we can strike"


Or in a nut shell..

February............Want to start phase 3 at end of 2004,
looking for a partner to be able to do this.
22 March...........Will consider testing for Parkinsons at the
appropriate time with a possible partner.
23 March...........Want to start phase 3 at end of 2004.
We need a partner.
20th April...........Found lots of partners!
15th September..Talking to partners.
Waiting for more scientific/medical
/commercial inputs before we strike the
deal and announce Partner/start of phase 3.


Pretty consistant progress towards their goals at the end of
2004 ("ReGen will be a very different company at the end of the year"

So I think we are definately on course for news of a licensing partner by the end of 2004.


If you were to analyse the above in a speculative way then
a few things stand out.......

22nd March."Will consider testing for Parkinsons at the appropriate time with a possible partner"

15th September "In this regard we expect an in-vitro study
evaluating the use of the compound in Parkinson's Disease to
start in the third quarter of the year."

Which could raise some very speculative questions.

The appropriate time to start testing for Parkinson's was the last 2 weeks of September therefore have found a possible partner?

If they have a posible partner then a deal is on the table?
If you have a "better" deal then there must already be a deal to improve on?
The commercial input for a better deal was buying GCPUL?
The scientific/medical input for a better deal is the results of the Parkinson's study?

Pure speculation of course!

Anyway lots of news to come and IMO the big one being Parkinson's followed by a licensing deal. Probably in December depending on how long it takes to do the Parkinson's study. Anyone know?
I think the news will be released a bit at a time to maximise the PR opportunities.

Certainly 12p by xmas.

IMO DYOR etc. etc.

Ten Pints - excellent report,like the way you have put it together.I see you suffer from the same level of optomism and exhuberance as myself re:"certainly 12p by xmas"...and we sincerely hope you are right.I think it is always a problem with any scientific study to say how long test will take. How long will it take you to invent anything? answer is always as long as a piece of string!So i think the key is whether the product is good and meets the performance levels targeted. If it takes an extra month...well for 12p a share its perhaps worth the wait. Although this is where I have a problem in that unfortunately, patience is not my forte!

So we are back on track again. The recent NOIT sale of 3500000 shares has cast a shadow over trading with a number of people jumping ship in concern at a falling price and no explanation. Now we know there was nothing sinister to do with the company just NOIT needing to raise funds then normal service has resumed. Already up 9% today and people are still buying. I bet there are people kicking themselves that they didn't buy a couple of days ago but then IMHO there's a lot more in this one yet.

"Shares in Regen Therapeutics jumped 0.25p to 2.875p on talk that the company is set to announce some good product news. Speculation also mounted about a possible US fundraising. "

This appeared in various tipsheets yesterday so should attract some attention.

Hopefully they are correct and the good product news will be to do with successful scale up which will be one big step forward.

So everyone knows about the presentation and we have now news on the US. Further more comprehensive RNS coming out on Monday. Interesting few days ahead.

Strange the comment about no further financial information being discussed other than cashflow and estimated expenditure. I can only assume that is to allay the fears of those who were worried that it might be leading up to another issue/ cash call.

So Monday will see another RNS relating to

1. Drug development.
2. Nutraceutical development.
3. Conducting clinical trials.

That's what we want to know about. I think most of us knew that it would probably not be announcing a licensing partner however hopefully we will hear about scale up and toxicity testing as well as likely timescale for a nutraceutical on the shelves. Indications had been that we should see satisfactory scale up by the end of the year and perhaps a nutraceutical in 2005. Confirmation that they are still on target or fairly close should create a bit of positive activity.

Meantime the US. Put colostrum into any search engine and see where it takes you. 9 out of 10 times to the US. They seem to love any sort of colostrum product out there so this new exposure should spell good news.

Anyone know how this US arrangement will work? The RNS does not mention any new shares being issued so can we assume that any purchases will be coming straight from existing stock - if so that is great news.

This link which was kindly found by Dave on iii takes you to the adr info. http://www.adrbny.com/dr_profile.jsp?cusip=75885C105. Effective date today. Just asked Jeeves and it appears it is 4.58 in New York so can we assume there might be movement in about 3 hours?

If every one ADR equals 200 Regen shares then surely each time a purchase is made then the equivalent number of RGT shares will need to be purchased over here and held somewhere as security. If so then once trading starts we should see some fairly big movements. Every time someone buys 1000 ADRs it equates to 200000 rgt shares if my maths is correct. If I'm right in my thoughts above then we could see some fairly rapid movement.

Great run up to Christmas and roll on Monday

Found this on the web. It seems that the purchase of ADRS will create a parallel trade here for relevant number of RGT shares as no extra stock has been issued. I don't know how or when these trades will show up on our screens although we can track them through Daves link earlier. It will be nice to see the first trades in action over there later today.

Definition of American Depositary Share (ADS)

Convenient way to invest internationally
Listed and traded in the U.S.
Currency Risk

An American Depositary Share ("ADS") is a U.S. dollar denominated form of equity ownership in a non-U.S. company. It represents the foreign shares of the company held on deposit by a custodian bank in the companys home country and carries the corporate and economic rights of the foreign shares, subject to the terms specified on the ADR certificate.

An American Depositary Receipt ("ADR") is a physical certificate evidencing ownership in one or several ADSs. The terms ADR and ADS are often used interchangeably.

Convenient way to invest internationally

ADRs provide U.S. investors with a convenient way to invest in non-U.S. securities without having to worry about the complex details of cross-border transactions; they offer the same economic benefits enjoyed by the domestic shareholders of the non-U.S. company. ADRs are issued by a U.S. bank, such as J.P. Morgan, that functions as a depositary. Each ADR is backed by a specific number or fraction of shares in the non-U.S. company. The relationship between the number of ADRs and the number for foreign shares is typically referred to as the ADR ratio.

Listed and traded in the U.S.

ADRs can be listed on any of the U.S. exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), and may be quoted for trading on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (Nasdaq), the NASD's over-the-counter market, or the pink sheets. They can also be privately placed and traded as Rule 144A securities. Finally, the concept of the ADR has been extended to other geographical markets, resulting in structures known as global depositary receipts (GDRs), international depositary receipts (IDRs), and European depositary receipts (EDRs), which are generally traded or listed in one or more international markets.

Currency risk

Although ADRs are U.S. dollar denominated securities and pay dividends in U.S. dollars, they do not eliminate the currency risk associated with an investment in a non-U.S. company

Thanks for the excellent research and information on the US deal, takes away a lot of the mystery. Here's looking to a great result early next week, and for future growth, all the best,
Steve

Anyone know why the recent decline? I thought things were bubbling and news was expected of further pogress in testing/research and in finding partners for the future?

Probably no real reason, there are always going to be those that get fed up with the lack of action and move on.

Anyone have any views on today's results announcement? Personally I think that the reduced losses, first sales and potential acquisition targets makes for encouraging reading. However, the SP has taken a bit of a beating.

q1- Yes the results look good but two days ago an institution sold 1 mill shares. Admittedly thats only 20,000 but why would a fund manager want to slide out just before some good results? Anyway the company is still telling a good story so I think I'll keep with them for the next year or so. There is every chance that the sp will be 4 or 5p by then. At todays price there is not much point in geting out

Realistic - if you check out the NOIT (the 1M sale) news you will see that they seem to be selling out holdings in various companies and yet not buying anything so probably can't read too much into their sale here.

Todays fall especially earlier I think purely resulted from frustrated holders selling out. There had been an anticipation that because the company had indicated that they would be making a preliminary statement in Feb prior to the results in March then there would be some good news possibly re scaleup or licensing partner. Unfortunately this was not the case and so a few bailed out which caused a drop and others therefore panicked and sold out as well taking it down further. Once the initial panic was over the price crept back on good buying levels this afternoon.

In reality things are really no different today to what they were yesterday. The price has been hampered by the Dec issue which has meant that Hoodless had a lot of stock to offload. Level 2 until today had shown that only they were on the 2.25 offer with 4 others on 2.75 so once that stock cleared the price was set to rise. Ironically the drop today has created more buys than sells so some more the issue has gone aiding our cause.

Another frustration has been the ADRs. The announcement was made back in Dec that the process had been set up and gave the impression that trading was starting in the US then. In fact although the ADR process had been set up the brokers still had further paperwork to do to be able to trade and as I understand it they are just sorting the final details with NASDAQ now which is why as yet we have not been advised who the US brokers will be. I am sure there will be significant buying in the US when trading does start as colostrum is already a recognised health product out there. The fact that the Bank of New York need the shares lodged with them to create the ADRs on a 200:1 ratio means that applications for ADRs will have a direct impact on the UK stock and will hopefully clear the last of the issue and move the price up.

The results show encouraging figures. the GCPUL income was based on just a few weeks and so should equate to around 500,000 next year on a like for like basis. The cash in the bank and debtors total approaching 2million. So with a likely expenditure of around 1.5 million next year they have enough funds for the year already and a million left over. As a result I am puzzled as to why they needed to issue so many shares in Dec. It would seem, based on what we've been told so far that they don't need all that money "now". If they do then we have more to hear perhaps on the acquistion front.

There were many references to "broadening the base" of the company in the results and I think this is perhaps to address the concerns of those who have worried about Regen being a one product company. It's great to have a larger companybut I hope they don't lose sight of the reason most of us are here which is to see a Colostrinin product on the shelves -that is where the real money lies.

So we still wait for news on Scale up, the actual start to ADR trading, the finalising of a licensing partnership and any other acquisitions. All of these will see the SP lifted from this low level and hopefully such news won't be too far away.

Sorry a bit of an epic but I haven't posted here for a while. Good luck to all holders.

Gantenbrink - Excellent post and well worth the effort - Many thanks.

Thanks q1.I had hoped that the ADRs would have been trading by now.Good post,perhaps post of the week! I'll print it out to sustain me on the bad days when there are few trades.I'm glad that I did'nt panic now.

Gatenbrink- Sorry all the credit is down to you,only noticed when I went back and re read your post.

And I was going to take all of the glory...!