But please give me yours!

Thought I would get in early for 2006 - as I'm sure there will be a few similar posts. Sorry to have missed the London lunch (and for being so quiet this year). Did anyone get in the vintage Krug. If they did, I want their tip for 2006 (since they obviously know a thing or two).

IMHO the mining and oil stocks will continue to dominate the equity markets in 2006. For miners I like the look of BHP at the top end and Griffin, Tanzanite one, Golden Prospect and Galahad at the smaller end. For oils I am sticking with Burren and Dana (med caps) and Victoria, Emerald and Oilexco at the smaller end.

Internationally I go South America and India.

But I think 2006 may not be great for equities and I think the real action will be in commodities. Gold, silver, lead, zinc, palladium and the agriculturals are looking interesting too - sugar, oats - maybe even wheat, and soyabean (been reading Jim Rogers lately)! Never a finer time to open a spreadbetting account and get in on the action IMHO.

If the US hits recession I am ready to short everything that moves.

Have a great 2006 everybody - i'll be at the London lunch next year - thats a threat!

Gf - what do you reckon to a bounce-back in DGM!!

Cheers
gk

Cheers Gallick - suprised today, they signed a big contract and the price went down!

Suprise article in tomorrows IC.

Buy recomendation....may entice some in Friday and early next week.

Not sure when this was written as it has the share price at 1.5p


16 December 2005

NEWMARK SECURITY (NWT)



Newmark reported "healthy" orders a year ago, and they, plus the acquisition of CMP - a supplier of time and attendance hardware - boosted 2004-05 sales. But the latest results were disappointing due to losses from two businesses set up to sell electromagnetic locking systems and architectural ironmongery. Their discontinued losses shaved 734,000 off profits. However, 2005-06 figures should be better, particularly in the second half. Note that year-end cash balances are earmarked for CMP's deferred consideration of 1.2m, and a maximum payout of 3.5m for Grosvenor software in October 2007.

Ord price: 1.5p Market value: 5.43m
Touch: 1.4-1.6p 12-month High: 2.7p Low: 1.3p
Dividend yield: nil PE ratio: na
Net asset value: 1p Net cash: 1.51m


Year to Turnover Pre-tax Earnings Dividend
30 Apr (m) profit (000) per share (p) per share (p)
2004 10.58 -1,871 -1.00 nil
2005 13.63 39 -0.02 nil
Market makers: 5
Traded on Aim
Last IC view: 14 Jan 2005, page 66



The shares don't expect much of a profit recovery, but might be surprised. Buy.

My recommendations are;

IDN
RGM
TPA

Mine are

GFM
SER
SEO
RNSM
AMU - 2005 beating but should recover
PTS
ROC - 2005 60% rise, no debt, great prospects
MWA - Watchlist

For some fun I would say, based on obtaining a good rise over the year, and not wanting a long list, just 5 for fun ;

ACHL - Price is just too low based on earnings and planned div.
LEAD - Price is too low based on fantastic profit and earnings growth.
EKA - When they start producing and selling Molybdenum in Q1 06, watch for a rerating.
UNG - Return to full year profits at prelims, then watch for strong growth in H1 06.
TAG - For an oil play, one drill one hit, over 10 new drills for 06, commerical oil production coming soon from 3X and Belize Block 19 as the blue sky fun.

Will be fun to come back and see the changes from now to Dec 2006 in everyones picks.

GFM, EEL, KMR,CEY, KYS, ZOX and JKX.

Primary - MIO, GLA, DES, VOG and TGN
Secondary - CASH, AZM, ULT and PTI

P-P-P-pick up a miner!
:>)

Forgot to add BLR as well. :-)

Wales for another Grand Slam ....

Posted 11th of Dec - some are already moving nicely in the right direction.

''Over the long term (6-12 months) Corus (cs.) 59p, national grid (ng.)544p and morrisons (mrw) 182p. Reasonably safe, growth, good divis at NG and hopefully improving divis at mrw and return to divis at CS. It's a winner team. Dont say i didnt tell ya but as always DYOR. I will be back to say i told you so.''

ng. 544 - 570, mrw 182 - 190, cs 59 - 58 *risky play azm 129.

Would be nice if posters kept up us all up to date with their tips, good and bad. Experience tells me there could be some big winners on this thread in 2006. Good luck everybody.

COH, BPRG & SEO are ones to keep an eye on too, COH especially they have money to invest and ready to expand.

WRN for some action in January/early Feb.
CHP ditto and possibly through to the autumn
GFM for the first half of 2006

,,,,,,,2006 -Will be remembered not dissimilar to last year - OIL !!! OIL ,!! ..Oil , !!! OIL !! !! or GAS !! GAS !!! GAS !! .lt will plague the Bush /Cheyne administration until the bitter end . And sadder still its price could endanger jobs everywhere and destabalize many fledgeling democracies.The ultra conservative mag, Forbes, of course saw this as a real money maker and told all its members so .. . .Matt Simmons whose investment house has billions under funds has no illusions about oil @ $100 p/bl and futher more margins may reach 50%. Analyists at Goldman Sachs discreetly agreed. Whispers at planned secret meetings at JP Morgan reg the concept of "Peak Oil " started to be taken seriously . Now it is a trueism ! . The Federal reserves fiscal policy under Mr G is identical to Mr B ; and thier answer is juste print the money and protect all highly yielding acreage with the millitary .And in doing so keep alive the rest of the economy .What else can they do ? .With an absurd $700 trillion trading debit upon whose annual interest alone they have renaged on more than one occassion there is little left to do . Remeber oil is a finite variable . Now while China and lndia are content buying T Bonds all is fine in the house of cards called the USA. But as we can all see things bode badly geopolitically . And now lran, and Syria with a number of other Oil Nats within Opec want want paying for their oil in a basket of currencies with the $ constututing a mere percentage .The mighty petrodollars is on a heart machine . . But that is a totally different story . ....2006 will be a year of aquisitions on behalf of "Big Oil " with bulging coffers out for any impressive producing tiddlers who have done all the hard work but for which they are handsomely rewarded -does wonders to beef up thier production figures to tell many of their "nice but dim " shareholders . and access to new acreage . 2006 - year for the commissioning of a new class of refineries capable of dealing with heavy sulphur bitumin like oxy hydrocarbon deposits- like those found in Alberta and the Latin Americas .A year for companies actively involved in the manufacture new platforms especially designed as mooring / production vessels for deepwater exploration (as West African platforms illustrate )... Basically the entire OIL services industry will prosper ... ... 2006 will be a year for both junior expos/prods merging and consolidating to avoid outright aquistion and synergies in the bidding war that will ultimately break out for RIGS ! during "the driving season " when use is high in the USA ,,,,,,,,The rotary count was 86% in 2004/5 . Now it is so tight that ANY disruption would be felt everywhere. Bottlenecks exist as a result of divestment over 30 years -both up and downstream .2006 shall be a year for those who build rigs what with the last rotary count running at almost 97.2 % % capacity ; but really 100% after the gulf hurricanes whose damage was played right down at the time . l think we shall see absolutely enormous mind boggling j/vs between countries and consortiums alike. All with massive millitary protection and private armies . Perhaps a year of more resource wars ? Azeris and Armenians are reckoned to have as much oil as perhaps lran . Much of which is in the Pankisi gorge - a hotbed of turbulence ,hostility and ethnic unrest . Armed groups roam this hinterland of savagery,,, Anarchy prevails . America has made its move in buiding new bases in Rumania, Bulgaria and Georgia to ensure smooth running of Caspian oil Even Kuwait has invited Western Expos to investigate leads in other parts of the country away from their two main producing fields not disimilar in size to the biggest in the world at Gwawar in S/Arabia .They are OLD and TIRED and been subject to water injection and bottle brush drilling ",,,,, Cheap oil is GONE forever ! .Half of the IPOS joining OFEX or Aim in the past 12 months are either oil juniors or mining concerns; and for good reason as we are entering the second stage of a secular bull market in commodoties for a catalogue of reasons you all know .This is something we have never seen since the rebuilding of Europe after World War 11 . But a barrel of black gold then was no more than a mere couple of dollars in 1945/6 ,,,. Texas , Louisianna, and those States on the Mexican gulf coast USA was utterly awash with it ? For millions of years hydrocarbon sat in abundancet under anoxic/ euxinic conditions in formation ---and a mere 50 years for those barbarians to squander it. ........OIL !!! OIL , oil !!! Thats were all the clever money will be . What with with hydrogen powered cellular still not cost effective ( but rapidly coming down ) but not anticipated on market until 2015 and a distinct lack of "REAL" interest among the boys at " Big Oil " for hydro or biomass we are left to think that officail policy of most govts is to find that oil and gas that remains, use it prudentally, and coupled ,with the alternative energy forms it should see us into the ushering of the Hydrogen age ......But as for 2006 ? Why tinker about with the window wipers when the engine is the problem ,? . Oil ! l defy any chartist to tell you otherwise ... lts a nap !!.,,,,,,,,,,,,,No sector offers the returns as does the Oil and mining sector . And about time !! ,,,,,,,,,,,,The busiess of LNG is looking bright ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Also i see a bright future in the mining for a vast host of hard commodoties esp zinc , gold, silver,molys ,and chromites and to an almost similar degree,- copper, cobalt and nickel .....South Africa De Beers reports a lack of true quality gems ...........................Anyway my choice ? Gazpom, *** EEL**** , GFM ***, , JKX ,*** M&P 6% ( Maurel and Prom ) ** CNM***, CEY ****,CSP **, ,BUR *** ,KMR **** ,FDI ***,, DGO, HDYS ,**** CSP ***,AFE **** ,HGM ***TLW ***, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,PDL ,HIF,LUP,MANA are tiddlers i expect to do well.. ...Commodoties without a doubt for 2006 . Soft commodoties especially.-Sugar ,Coffe, Soya , ,,,,,,A prosperous new year to you all ,,,@+ J

TFC, I generally find your inputs to the board interesting while not always agreeing with you.

But will you do an old man a favour for the coming year, format your prose.

Just leaving a empty line between your ideas would be a help.

Bonne ann.

And you can read the last line as you wish.

Agree with you Fred--very hard to concentrate especially after a glass or two!
FC-slow down!

I would go with the commodities theme, for my oil tiddler its TAG, for miners its EKA and TMC to come good on their production. At the Q2 stage of 2006 I am sure I will be adding a few more commodities stocks to my lists.

I also think that 2006 could be a good year for the AIM market, in general esp if you take out oil/gas plays, it had a very mixed year in 2005, and is due a good year, whereas last year was good on the 250, so probably the FTSE250 will have a bad year. Is 2006 going to be a great year for AIM stocks ? I think it might be.

So some of you really can be bothered to read TFC's humungus sized posts. it probably is very informative but how come the rest us can say what we to say in a much shorter post. dont mean to be rude but personally i cant be bothered to read them.

Kivver,

" personally i cant be bothered to read them " Thats your lost.

" how come the rest us can say what we to say in a much shorter post "
No imagination.