any thoughts about the drop in share price?

Presentation went very well last week, chart very predictable now,expect sp to rise this week.

from advfn.

MAX VALUATION:
Our original note featured a rule of thumb, suggesting that each 100mb of reserves would be worth around 330m of market cap, or 128p per Max share. There are now more Max shares in issue, especially when options are taken into account, so the per share worth of each 100mb has fallen. However, there is a big counter to this, namely the addition of the new block containing large but lowish risk possible reserves. So the chances of substantial success have improved and the maximum upside has increased.

New rule of thumb: Assuming Maxs average 85% holding in its blocks, a /$ rate of 1.8, and a P & P oil value of $7.5/bbl (in line with comparables), each 100mb of reserves is worth 354m, equivalent to 94p per Max share. In other words, the Max share price at 120p is discounting finds of proven and probable reserves of 127 million barrels (mb).
In our view, it would be disappointing in the extreme if Maxs shallow low risk drilling on Blocks E and A generated as little as 124mb. Even one of the medium depth salt flank finds would be quite likely to exceed this figure. And there are at least 69 salt domes on E and A. It is worth remembering that every single salt dome that has been drilled in the Pre-Caspian Basin so far has yielded oil or gas deposits.

Furthermore, there are likely to be several multi billion barrel deep pre-salt targets. If these are assessed together as a one in ten shot, which we would deem conservative, they have to be worth a significant amount even at this early stage. And then there is East Alibek and the new Astrakhansky, either of which could be a company-maker in their own right. This is far from being a single shot play. There will probably be duds but in such an oil and gas prone Basin it would be strange indeed if none of the plays work out.

On the face of it, the potential upside on Max is substantial. There will be dilution if and when the company brings in industry partners to pick up a slice of the action by paying for a large chunk of the high exploration costs.

Seismic work has been under way for many months and early results from imaging suggest strong prospects.

Early Seismic work suggests the targets totalling:
- 6.1 TCF of Gas
- 235mb of high quality liquids.
- 1.25 Billion Barrels of oil equivalent.

The company has pointed out, "we would hazard a guess that new seismic may well throw up other, as yet unsuspected, prospects".

Max Petroleum Unearths Oil With Its First Shallow Well In Kazakhstan

Max Petroleum, which has seen its shares have a pretty good run since joining Londons Alternative Investment Market in October 2005, has, with its first well, found oil and started producing.

The company, which last month raised US$75 million through a convertible bond offering, is focused on Kazakhstan, where it is operating in the Pre-Caspian Basin, one of the richest hydrocarbon basins in the world. Although this area is home to the supermajors with the deep pockets to develop the regions numerous super-giant sub-salt fields, such as the 9 billion barrel Tengiz oilfield and 13 billion barrel Kashagan oilfield, Maxs first priority has been to chase the low-picking fruit: the shallow supra-salt oil and gas fields of Blocks E and A.

Brokers WH Ireland, in a note published earlier this year, point out there are at least 69 salt domes in blocks E and A and that every single salt dome been drilled in the Pre-Caspian Basin so far has yielded oil or gas deposits.

Maxs first well hasnt disrupted this run of success. The Mak A1-X exploration well was drilled to a total depth of 1,000 metres to test the Zhana Makat A prospect in Block E. The well encountered a 23 metre oil column of high quality 35-degree API oil. It is currently producing around 180 barrels per day, a rate which is expected to increase as the well cleans up.

Executive chairman Jim Jeffs said the results from the first well validated the companys geological model for the block and marked an important milestone in the companys development.

A follow-up well is now drilling ahead and further wells are planned to define the size of the Zhana Makat structure and fast-track early production. A temporary production facility is under construction to process the crude and sales contracts are being negotiated. With the drilling work on Zhana Makat A complete, the company will turn its attention to the Zhana Makat E and D prospects. In all ten shallow wells are planned on blocks A and E over the remainder of this year, with 20 more on the books for 2007.

These low-risk, cheap-to-drill wells hold out the promise of near-term production and cash flows for Max. This is all well and good but for many investors the real interest in the Max portfolio lies in the deeper reservoirs on its A, E, East Alibeck and Astrakhanskiy blocks, which could yield reserves measured in the billions, rather than millions, of barrels.

Max is not shy about chasing these elephants. A deep well is planned on the East Alibek block in the fourth quarter. This acreage lies on the eastern margin of the Pre-Caspian Basin adjacent to the Alibekmola field, which is estimated to have remaining reserves of some 200 million barrels. The well will be drilled to a depth of around 4,000 metres. East Alibek-1 will be followed by a deep well on Block E in the spring of 2007 and a deep well on the Astrakhanskiy acreage in the autumn of 2007.

The latter project is of particular interest. Astrakhanskiy lies in the far western part of Atyrau Oblast in Western Kazakhstan, close to the Kazakh-Russian border. The 1,272 sq km block lies south-east of the super giant Astrakhan field, which had reserves originally in place of 85 trillion cubic feet of gas and 3.4 billion barrels of condensate, and adjacent to the 1.6 tcf and 175 million barrel Imashevskoye gas-condensate field.

Old Soviet-era seismic has identified three main prospects on trend in Astrakhanskiy, which when combined are similar in size to Imashevskoye. The WH Ireland brokers note says it is quite possible the prospects connect up to Imashevskoye, making them effectively part of the same field. If this link were to be established, the reserves would be higher, said the brokers, adding: We would hazard a guess that new seismic may well throw up other, as yet unsuspected, prospects.

This is appetizing stuff - but not without its risks. These deep wells are expensive to drill, requiring heavy-duty equipment and skilled personnel. Whats more, there is little point in finding trillions of cubic feet of gas without some means of monetizing the resource: this can be a problem in Kazakhstan, where gas prices are low and off-take and transportation agreements difficult to secure. This situation is improving, however, and the premium attached to high quality condensate reserves offsets some of this risk. Max has been busy conducting new seismic and geological reviews of the Astrakhanskiy acreage but the proof, as always, will lie with the drillbit.

Is this on the verge a big recovery, it appears to have bottomed out earlier this week. They are saying that they will be producing 2500bpd by the end of the year. With further drilling in the coming months. This monster seems to be a bit cheap with the huge prospects and huge oil logs find.
Any comments?

MXP share price recovery continues apace with excellent volumes to support it.

Take a look at the very impressive new MAX Petroleum web site - and read the even more impressive Investor Presentation, then go and buy some more MXP shares!

http://www.maxpetroleum.com/companypresentations.asp

Pondlife, these shares are looking good for strong recovery now. I got in last week at 87.5p. It looked if it was over sold on the charts...presumbly due to funding cost of the drilling programme required. The presentation says that is completed now. I can see this go beyond the peaked price it reached earlier this year.

R88AVE,
I have been a convert to MXP for some time now. I see these as a multi bagger over the next two or three years. I bought first at 120, topped up at 110 and then added more at 84 and then more yesterday at 95. The dive was a temporary blip brought about by arbitrage by the holders of the convertible stock. It will soon be a distant memory. 150 by year end would be very nice, but I can be patient. These WILL come good.

Pondlife

Someone in the rival website has rung the company today and was advised that an update on their website is due tomorrow. Could be an exciting rns coming?

Yes - tonester has been publishing the latest 'buy' note from WH Ireland. It makes for good reading. You couldn't possibly read it and not want to buy the shares. I gather that it will appear on the web site tomorrow. Have you seen the site by the way? It is very swish.
I post as Lord Gnome on other sites, including ADVFN.

Ah right, you do the share forum as well, I visit the site everyday, very interesting read from others. Sensible with no rampers etc. Yeah the MPX website is excellent. I gathered Tonester had made an interesting break down of the presentation. Let see today brings, maybe tempted to get some more?

Added a few more today via a spread bet - run out of cash to buy them with!

I have started a new thread for MXP with charts in the header. I'll add useful links to it when i get time. I won't be posting on here again, This thread is now officially dead!