The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

There is alot of talk about these protected trades on many of the BB's this morning, and with the price movement yesterday, I could not say whether they were buys or sells, but then again the way that the SP held up yesterday was most impressive if these were sells, so I'm kinda hoping they were!!!, as it proves that the PET SP has a solid support level at around 1 pound. A protected trade can be executed anytime within the day, but is not reported until the end of trade, and as the bid price went up to 107, it could have been a sell from the morning.

OK why would someone sell so close to an announcement, do they have inside information, do they know something we don't? EASY answer "No", there are several reason why someone could have sold, there was alot of talk of people buying on T20 trades a while back, it could simply be that their settlement date has come, and they sold to avoid paying for the shares, and hopefully took a little bit of profit with it. It could also be Gartmore top slicing again, to lock in more profit for their fund, as Gartmore were buying back at 4 pence a share.


People have posted information on Protected shares on the BB, but I was actually dealing with a protected trade a couple of weeks ago, when I was buying NBR, I bought another lot of shares @ 39pence, this was not reported until the end of the day, and by that time the SP was 44pence, so obviously it was reported as a sell, when in fact it was a buy, so the simple truth is, that unless you yourself executed the protected trade yesterday it is very difficult to know for sure what it was.

As far as PET are concerned, I have come across no evidence which would lead me to believe that PET are not the favourites to walk away with at least one tender, i have listed a few positive points for me below -

1. They come from a neutral country, which is not only acceptable to Iraq, but also the UN.

2. They have complete project financing from the Japanese financial house

3. PET were the most investor friendly company ever, but after the Iraqi tender meetings, back in October, they went quiet as they were sworn to secrecy, last week we saw Soronan and PET's names mentioned in a leak from Jordan, Soronan were very happy to hype up this MOU, but again PET were very quiet. IMHO, it caused a slight panic, and PET had to check with the MOO, whether they were able to release something or not, as I'm sure these MOU's have something to do with the Iraqi deals, as we know PET have a JV with the Jordanians to study core samples, share information, etc. We then see an announcement that the MOO have submitted their recommendations to the Government, and then two days later we get the RNS from PET about the Jordanian deal - coincidence?

4. PET have spent the last 7 years forming close relationships with ministers over in Iraq. PET were encouraged by these very same people to bid for all 3 of the tenders.

5. Reading through any newspaper article on these tenders, PET is the only company named, the oil ministers refuse to name any other. the Telegraph article suggested that PET had no competitors on at least one of the tenders (Oh how I would love that to be true!!!)


Well make up your own mind whether you think PET will secure one of the tenders or not, but I'm keeping all of my shares until we know one way or the other, as the evidence speaks for itself


Tokyo

As a pure observer; and with very little more than a passing academic interest in the market mechanics of PET, l am afraid i am utterly unconvinced of the strength of thier case.l think PET will be handsomely rewarded/ reimbursed in some way for thier past endeavours in lraq; but fields of this size need PROVEN players. And PET are far from that.Lets face facts .They are no more than a second rate minion with what would be a virtual mercanary hotch botch of unqaulified personnel Now enter swing producer - Norway . l think you will find BOTH those big contracts will end up in thier hands .As late as saturday night lraqi oil officials in Oslo and the look on the Norwegian minister of Energy said it all. PET Eat your heart out !!!

french,
what evidence do you have that norwegian companies are even in the frame, i know that there was some meetings etc earlier in the year. norway are held in high esteem in oil production, but the contracts PET have gone for are in engineering, not production.

tokyo,
very good post, as usual!, did you manage to put snrn on your watchlist?
dexter

dexter - thanks I put it on my watchlist via comdirect, but as it is not on LSE couldn't put it on moneyam, as for the Norway connection, i know the government have been over there for talks, but once again it has been the MOO that has been dealing with these projects Development, not production, it has only recently gone to the Government for the rubber stamp, if Norwegian firms had been involved in the tender process don't you think we would have heard something over the past year, even a little so & so company is involved in the tender process, and yet we have heard, nothing, I don't want to be overly positive, but again the facts speak for themselves!!!

Tokyo

just found this little bit on this is money, may have been posted already.

Oil minnow Petrel Resources is still waiting to hear whether it has won a contract to operate two or more lucrative fields in Iraq. The company also says it expects to win an exploration licence in the Jordanian desert near the Iraq border. Meanwhile, shares in the group, which have fallen from 133p in October, rose 1p to 100p

The calm before the storm.

when the news was forced out of PET about the tender date, I got the impression there was a logical reason they had to keep things hush hush. Has any other major/minor oil linked company been put in the same position? Has any other oil linked company major or minor been linked and is still linked to the tender locations that PET are linked too? No luck involved, still waiting:o)

watcher

Has this French Connection person posted before?

Or is it another sadist who delights in annoying?

livvy,
perhaps this french connection should fcuk off!!,seriously though, what are your feelings as to what PET will get. mine is 2 contracts and block 6 rubber stamped .
dexter

Does anybody have any idea when the package will be delivered.
Tired of waiting...

Hi guys

Forgive me if I am wrong, but I have a sneaking suspicion that "The French Connection" is the "Oilman" on another BB that many of you frequent and contribute to.

I notice that both the posts from these two characters appeared at roughly the same time this morning at around 9.40ish. Too much of a coincidence? Nah.

Any thoughts from the more intelligent and rational amongst you? Well on this board it covers most of you.

Oilywag

I am hopeful on 1 contract poss2, but I grow less positive day by day that this will reflect in a 3 X current SP, given that mms manipulate continually, e.g., this afternoon AGAIN.
Hopefully the announcement of 2 contracts will prove me wrong and Ill be more than happy.

I'm neither particularly intelligent or rational but I can't see any possible relationship between the Pet deal and Iraqi ministers visiting Norway. I'm sure, being at Ministerial level, they have much more important matters to discuss.
However, the Frenchconnection has a point about track record. We don't know the details about the strength of the Pet bid but financial soundness and the ability to complete the works is an important part of a bid adjudication.
That is offset by the fact that these are brown field sites and the risk is solely with Pet. Nor do we know how good the other contenders are, if any.
You pays your money and takes your choice but, except in the case of a sole bidder situation, I'd be surprised if Pet gets both contracts. One yes.
Has anyone asked DH to confirm or not whether he is the sole bidder?

Evening everyone, and thanks again for very objective assessment and research. I go back to DH's statement a few months ago now, that PET was "sworn to secrecy" and that "it will be in ALL our best interests", or words to that effect. There hasn't been anything to dissuade me from accepting DH's position, when you distill events down since then:

- Tenders, completed and finalised, confirmed as submitted for the first two
- Final submission date confirmed for third tender as today (when any announcement is made on the first two, it will give an indication of lead time for decision on three)
- Jordanian memo of understanding leaked; Sonoran confirm, Pet delays, no doubt to clear it with MOO
- Sonoran release news on PSA with Jordan; PET news not forthcoming, but expected similarly
- Recommendations from MOO submitted to government for approval
- Decision still awaited on first two tenders, along with any news on Block 6.
- Opportunities emerge for Pet in Sudan...

If Pet didn't think they could handle all three, or more, they wouldn't pitch for all three, or more, it would not be good commercial judgement to risk the delivery and quality of any one succesfful contract purely to gain others. It's frustrating playing the waiting game, but it looks very promising across a number of fronts, there is a lot of protocol to go through, but the end game and value of the prize both reflects this and will no doubt be worth it.

Just a final point on valuation, the current share price has an expectation of success factored in, given the gap between market cap and assets, any views on how this might affect the initial share price once success is announced?
Best of luck to all,
Steve

OILYWAG.
What thread was he posting on?

Aldwickk

No apparent thread, just a bald statement of his thoughts.

Oilywag

Good morning one and all! If there is no news today i do expect a retracement of some sort, in and around the 90 mark. But again, as posted so many many times, a day or week retracement is a small blip! Always keep on top of investments and never invest what you can not afford to lose, of course! However, i have absolutely no doubt that this will come good soon enough.

A 2 starting sp will be nice with a bumpy ride up to 3, take a little profit there and watch intently as the rest of the holding creeps up to the 5 mark.

Oh heavenly joy!

gra1969: my intentions exactly!

Realistically, though, I'll be pursuing that strategy in January, not December as hoped.

Why is the price dropping so quick?

Looks like another Teeling "sucess"!

Down 20% and falling, good luck you lot, looks like you need it!

Dunno what has happened to PET but the drop looks ominous......dyor of course.