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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 28 Jun 2005 15:10 - 161 of 1009

Fred

spot on - it was Universe Group who were spun out from the old Card Clear days. Interestingly they popped up on my radar recently having won a new contract

overgrowth - 28 Jun 2005 15:54 - 162 of 1009

Amazing - if Goldman Sachs had just added a similar percentage to their holding in an oil company the price would be up 30%+ today rather than down !

It seems as though the MMs are happy to annoy retail investors and traders to the extent that they believe that whatever good news comes from RTD, the price will remain static or even drop slightly - so all the RI's dutifully sell and the institutions pick up another huge tranche of shares at bargain prices.

Something has got to give here very soon - roll on that trading update and 40p next stop.

pachandl - 28 Jun 2005 16:21 - 163 of 1009

OG - agreed but someone IS selling RTD - 300k just gone through.

Fred1new - 28 Jun 2005 16:44 - 164 of 1009

That is only about 100.000. Not a lot.

knute - 30 Jun 2005 12:21 - 165 of 1009

Did anyone notice the second RNS re. Goldman-Sachs, after hours on Tuesday?
Either Golmans did a quick in and out or there was a major cock-up.
Latter suspected as the original 5mill trade has been negatived but last Thursday's 500k stands which agrees roughly with their latest declaration.
Since the 5mill shares were provided for by mm's it implies that there are 4.5mill on the loose somewhere in the market.
No wonder the price is flat-lining and will likely continue to do so until they're cleared imho.

Fundamentalist - 30 Jun 2005 12:51 - 166 of 1009

Knute

this has been spotted on ADVFN and a couple of the posters have emailed the company for clarification - i will post the response up here when they get it

parveen1 - 30 Jun 2005 17:12 - 167 of 1009

well another 400k sell well absorbed by the MM'S

Imho I think they are getting ready for the trading update which could happen tomorrow or early next week.

sell them back at a much higher premium



overgrowth - 30 Jun 2005 17:47 - 168 of 1009

parveen1 - That sounds like a good possibilty to me.

It would explain where the 4.5 million shares (which Goldman Sachs said they wanted and then realised they didn't) have ended up.

The MMs have probably contacted the house broker and asked if any good news is likely to be on the way, because they're sitting on a stash of RTD shares worth 1.3M+ which is too much risk for them to hold as a float on a small cap. if they're not able to sell them on very soon.

They've probably had the tip off that a trading statement will be issued by the end of next week and the figures will be good.

Let's hope so - we could do with a boost, things have been getting a bit boring recently.

coeliac1 - 30 Jun 2005 23:55 - 169 of 1009

Just a comment about the GS notifications.RTD is required to notify information provided to them under Company Law about substantial (ie 3%) interests.So they will have only done an RNS on the basis that GS have given them appropriate notification in the first place.To query it with the company as we are told someone on SDVFN has done shows something of a lack of understanding where the responsibility for the information lies- in this case with GS. RTD is merely the messenger.

What I did notice is the timing.The finance drector,Richard Amos, sent out the second RNS on the same day that the info was received from GS- late in the day-I suspect he realised that to avoid speculation over the earlier statement, on info RTD received the previous day, the sooner he got the later one out the better and got his skates on to deal with it before close.

Fundamentalist - 01 Jul 2005 00:16 - 170 of 1009

coeliac1

Fully understand your logic - but if you were Richard Amos wouldnt you want to know what GS were doing and be prepared to inform your shareholders if asked? Certainly cant see GS answering any questions as to whether they f***ed up!!!

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 13:20 - 171 of 1009

Interesting slight move up 2day on small volume,the calm before the storm?

overgrowth - 05 Jul 2005 13:29 - 172 of 1009

capetown - anticipation rising of trading statement, most folks think it will be this week.

And the figures will be good because oil prices are 5% higher, AUS$ is 8% stronger, even with no underlying growth that is an extra 1m income in H1.

Plus the GBP/USD conversions will have been favourable for US business.

Not to mention extra business from new contracts, joint ventures etc.

capetown - 05 Jul 2005 14:19 - 173 of 1009

Hey overgrowth,someone just bought two lots of 1.5 million!!

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 14:35 - 174 of 1009

Thats 2/3 rds of the missing 4.5m shares OG

decided to start to buy back in - typical that IGIndex is down!!!!

Fred1new - 05 Jul 2005 14:39 - 175 of 1009

Try Comdirect. You now it makes sense. 8-)






I am on 10% from comdirect.

Fred1new - 05 Jul 2005 14:40 - 176 of 1009

Try Comdirect. You now it makes sense. 8-)






I am on 10% from comdirect.

Fred1new - 05 Jul 2005 14:40 - 177 of 1009

Try Comdirect. You now it makes sense. 8-)






I am on 10% from comdirect.

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 14:43 - 178 of 1009

that should make 30% in total then Fred :-)

overgrowth - 05 Jul 2005 15:10 - 179 of 1009

capetown - Great news - someone's very confident in RTD.

Interesting that the 3m were bought as ordinary trades.

Fundy - it definitely looks like the best time to get back on board.

An upbeat trading statement and RTD will soar (especially now that most of that Goldman's overhang has gone).

Fundamentalist - 05 Jul 2005 15:17 - 180 of 1009

Og

would expect them to be "O" trades as the mms obviously had them from the GS cock-up
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