markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
markymar
- 09 Aug 2005 21:47
- 1610 of 6492
http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=6201
Tight oil supply with no ceiling for prices
Crude-oil prices seem to have no ceiling and jumped to a new high above 63 US dollars a barrel on Monday, reflecting the market's persistent uneasiness about strong global demand and tight supplies.
Traders pinned the latest rally on a wide-range of factors including security concerns in Saudi Arabia and refinery shortages in the United States plus the fact that U.S. gasoline demand continues to rise in spite of prices that average over 2.30 US dollars a gallon.
Oil analyst Marshall Steeves at New York-based brokerage Refco Group Inc. said oil and gasoline prices were likely to keep rising until there were signs of a significant drop off in demand, or a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
"We're clearly not there yet," he said.
"The US economy looks healthy and it's safe to infer that the demand for oil and fuel will remain pretty firm and that the price of oil should be helped along as well" was the majority feeling in the commodities markets.
Broadly speaking, those jitters are tied to the fact that worldwide consumption is expected to average more than 84 million barrels a day in 2005, leaving only about 1.5 million barrels a day of spare production capacity that could be called upon in an emergency to offset a prolonged supply disruption.
Given such a slim margin in the supply chain, a large premium has been priced into every barrel of oil sold on futures markets.
Several factors put the market on edge Monday: the U.S. Embassy and consulates in Saudi Arabia were closed after authorities announced Sunday a security threat against U.S. government buildings inside the world's largest petroleum-producing country; a fire broke out at a unit of Sunoco Inc.'s 330,000 barrels-a-day Philadelphia refinery over the weekend following a string of refinery fires and other snags over the past two weeks that have not severely diminished supply, but have nonetheless made oil traders nervous; suspected rebels launched renewed attacks overnight on pipelines in eastern India, leaving oil operations in the remote region in critical shape.
The market is also keeping a close eye on tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, fearing a repeat of last year's Hurricane Ivan, which damaged oil facilities and caused output in the region to drop for several months.
eddieshare
- 10 Aug 2005 20:08
- 1611 of 6492
Hi all
A four price doji today is todays candle which means the open, high, low and close were all at the same price. The four price doji has formed inside of yesterdays candle which has now given us a bearish harami. Which has put DES on a sell if with Britishbulls.com. The sell if must be confirmed. With all the recent doji and high wave candles, there is an indication of indecision. This means the market may be about to decide, if DES is to go up or down. DES still hasn't managed to close above the 0.4150p, which is where the indecision seems to be. The fact that we have seen a fair bit of cosolidation just under this price, leads me to think the move will be up. It could be the market is holding back for some news ie Rockhopers float. The 200 day moving average is still moving up, and is at 0.4563p.
Good Luck All
Eddie
berlingo
- 11 Aug 2005 12:19
- 1612 of 6492
Looking good ! Breaking through the 041.50p Eddie ? Let`s hope its on and up .
Regards
Berlingo
berlingo
- 11 Aug 2005 15:53
- 1613 of 6492
Still looking good ! Maybe that Rig is ready together with Rockhopper going AIM on Monday? Got to be the best time to announce such news IF that rig is deffo available!
markymar
- 11 Aug 2005 17:15
- 1614 of 6492
Hi all,
Just picked this up a little old but worth a read.
Exciting news on our Falkland Islands plays
Here is a piece of information that to the best of my knowledge no one in the financial community has picked up on yet. It concerns the oil prospects in the Falkland Islands, where we hold stakes in FALKLAND ISLANDS HOLDINGS (FKL.LONDON/AIM), FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD (FOGL.LONDON/AIM), and DESIRE PETROLEUM (DES.LONDON/AIM).
The shares of all three companies have by and large been moving side-ways recently. But if the intelligence I have gathered during my recent research proves to be right, then the next movement should be sharply upwards. Let me explain.
A new exploration company called Rockhopper Exploration has been formed and the company has won two exploration licenses for the Falklands North Basin in December 2004. The area covers 4,203 square kilometers and borders the area explored by Desire Petroleum where recent surveys had proven significant indications for oil and gas.
The news of another oil exploration company joining the race for the Falklands oil potential would in itself be good, but not astonishing. It only becomes interesting once you start to look at the players behind Rockhopper.
A serious new player has entered the field
The company, appropriately named after a penguin indigenous to the Falkland Islands, is headed by Pierre Jungels, the former head of Enterprise Oil. During his 1996 to 2001 tenure, Enterprise was the UKs largest independent oil company. Jungles later became head of British Gas upstream business. Jungels is also chairman of London-listed Offshore Hydrocarbon Mapping (OHM), a company offering surveying and data interpretation services to the offshore oil industry using electromagnetic remote sensing technology (EM).
EM has been used for many years by research scientists to examine hydrothermal and volcanic systems on mid ocean ridges. OHM has developed the technique further to make it into a new and potent tool in hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir assessment ideal for the upcoming exploration work in the deep sea around the Falklands.
In other words, a serious new player has entered the field someone who is likely to have in-depth knowledge of the Falklands oil potential. Rumor has it that he is going to work with a Canadian oil major, ENCANA (ECA.NYSE), on this project. EnCana is one of the worlds leading independent oil and gas companies, valued at $26bn on the New York Stock Exchange. If this rumor turns out to be right, it would most likely mark the beginning of a true Falkland Islands Oil Rush.
In any case, the British fund management company, Artemis Investment Management, seems to also have done some research into the matter. On January 10th the fund manager announced an 11.84% stake in FKL. Just how Artemis managed to accumulate the stake is not yet known, but with such a stake being difficult to sell via the open market, its a vote of confidence for the Falklands oil prospects. To sum it all up, the year 2005 is just a few weeks old and already there seem to be exciting signs of things to come for your Falklands investments. FOGL: BUY below 90p; DES: BUY below 60p; FKL: BUY below 750p.
All in all, its a great time to be a Profit Hunter and I hope youre finding international investing as thrilling as I find it. Ive got plenty of new ideas my research department and I are working on and youll hear about them just as soon as they are ready.
Until then...
Sven Lorenz
The Profit Hunter
markymar
- 11 Aug 2005 17:21
- 1615 of 6492
Oil & Gas: Rockhopper to raise US$53mn for exploration in early Aug
Rockhopper will be the third UK company after Desire Petroleum and Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) to list on the AIM to obtain financing for exploration in the Falklands.
"There has been appetite certainly in London and the European markets for small oil companies to raise money and list, that has been the case for the last 12 months at least," Davidson said.
Rockhopper was awarded two licenses in the North Falkland basin, PLO32 and PLO33, in early June covering 1,620 sq km and bringing to four the number of licenses it owns in the basin.
In December 2004 the Falkland Islands government awarded Rockhopper licenses for the PL023 and PL024 blocks covering an area of 4,203 sq km some 50km to the north of the islands in the northern basin.
The two licenses awarded in June were formerly held by Anglo-Dutch company Shell, which carried out a 3D seismic survey and two-well drilling program on the acreage in the 1990s. Oil and gas shows were found in one well and oil shows in the other, but neither well was tested.
"That was a time when the oil price was substantially lower than it is today, so the economic bar was much higher then," Davidson said.
"Oil at US$60 a barrel means regions that wouldn't have been economic at US$10/b are now economic. In general, attention is turning to areas previously overlooked or deemed uneconomic and the Falklands falls into that category," Davidson said.
Rockhopper plans to conduct an extensive 3D seismic survey over its acreage during the next two years.
"We are in discussion with a number of seismic contractors about beginning work on our existing acreage and are excited about the drilling program we are undertaking with Desire," Rockhopper executive chairman Pierre Jungels said in a statement in June.
In February the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Desire Petroleum to farm-in to three wells to be drilled on Desire's acreage in tranches C and D also in the northern basin, where sizeable prospects have been identified.
Rockhopper has already identified a number of prospects and leads in its own license areas.
The Falklands benefits from a "benign taxation and royalty environment and this, combined with the relatively shallow water depths in the Rockhopper licences, mean that discoveries of less than 50 million barrels could be economic," the statement said.
Source: Business News Americas (BNamericas.com)
eddieshare
- 11 Aug 2005 19:42
- 1616 of 6492
Hi all
Thanks markymar
An nice move up today from DES, the sell if wasn't confirmed. I have changed the chart a little to show the moving averages. As you can see they have changed direction and are now moving up. The next move should be towards the 200 day moving average and then through it. DES is above the 10 & 20 day moving average at the moment. The moving averages and candles need to be in this order. Starting from the top (candle above the 10 day moving average, 10 DMA above the 20 DMA, 20 DMA above the 60 DMA, 60 DMA above the 200 DMA. As the buying momentum builds, the moving averages will move into the correct order.
Good Luck All
Eddie
frodo
- 12 Aug 2005 00:23
- 1617 of 6492
Got a mate who works as a fisheries officer in the falklands. He reckons this rig is about to start operation very soon. Everyone in the area is full of desire apparently, despite the cold weather.
F
eddieshare
- 12 Aug 2005 17:14
- 1619 of 6492
Hi all
Well what a DES fantastic day. The bulls were out in force today, excellent gains. The 200 day moving average not looking that far away now. If the bullish action is in anticipation of Rockhoper, then I think DES will fly through the 200 day moving average with force. Also if frodo is correct then there may be some other news ready to break. I think todays volume has been great, but I'm sure this will be nothing compared to the news of the rig. Dont forget Lynnzal forcast for some resistance at about 0.4800p. Although having said that. DES could quite easily clear this area in just 1 days trading. The last trade may have added a bit more bullishnes, just to gear up for Monday's trading. The market has put DES in a great position for Monday, which I think will also be a great days trading.
Here is the chart with candles of 1 weeks value.
Good Luck All
Eddie
ianianian
- 12 Aug 2005 21:32
- 1620 of 6492
Hello Eddie
Sorry to be an ignoramous, but could you please explain to me what the horizontial lines on your graph represent. thanks
markymar
- 12 Aug 2005 21:59
- 1621 of 6492
Cheers Eddie i think we may of turned the corner but will wait till Monday
Frodo we still have months before we drill but a good contact to have.
Mercosur
Friday, 12 August
Hard left slam Kirchner & Bielsa over Malvinas oil
A group of around 100 protesters belonging to the leftwing Trotskyist Socialist Workers Movement (MST) this afternoon staged a noisy demonstration outside the Foreign Ministry building in downtown Buenos Aires protesting over Argentinas current policies vis-vis the disputed Malvinas-Falklands Islands.
While several hundred next-of-kin, war veterans, historians, government officials, diplomats, students, met within the Foreign Ministrys luxurious San Martin Palace for the second of the two day seminar on Malvinas in the South American Union - the first ever such conference organized jointly by the Foreign Ministry and NGOs working on different aspects of the Malvinas dispute - the protesters chanted slogans against both President Nestor Kirchner and Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa who they accused of continuing handing over the Malvinas to Britain.
While handing out leaflets with a Falklands Islands Hydrocarbons map reading This is how they rob our oil and showing the areas awarded to Argos Evergreen, Desire Petroleum, Talisman Energy and Global Petroleum as production areas awarded to these companies the demonstrators chanted slogans accusing those who rob oil in the Malvinas are the same people who murder in Iraq.
The small MST is headed by National Deputy Patricia Walsh, daughter of writer and Montonero guerrilla leader Rodolfo Walsh and has recently attracted maverick national Deputy Mario Cafiero, in turn one of the sons of longstanding Peronist leader Antonio Cafiero, who was once a Peronist Deputy but broke ranks to join Liliana Carrios ARI party with whom he has now broken joining the MST as a senatorial candidate in the province of Buenos Aires. The MST is the Argentine branch of the Trotskyist International Workers Unity Fourth International, who describe themselves as the world party of social revolution.
The organizers of the seminar told MercoPress that they had called on Cafiero and his supporters not to disrupt todays proceedings, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that our methodological differences over handling the Malvinas dispute was not misconstrued as suggesting that we do not all have the same strategic goals that of recovering the sovereignty of the Malvinas Islands he concluded.
http://http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=6235
eddieshare
- 12 Aug 2005 23:52
- 1622 of 6492
Thanks markymar.
Hi ian
The lines represent Fibonacci retracement levels. If you take 0.0750p as the low of the chart, then take 0.7100pp as the high of the chart. In between are the retracement levels. At (0.0750p = 0.0%), (0.2250p = 23.6%), (0.3170p = 38.2%), (0.3920p = 50%), (0.4670 = 61.8), (0.7100p = 100%).
After 0.7100p we should see (110.03p = 161.8%), (173.08.p = 261.8%), (276.06p = 423.6%)
If say one level is broken then we can expect to move to the next level, which is if the candles are moving up. The line above is the target. So for candles moving up, may have resistance at the retracement (target) level. For candles moving down, may have support at the retracement (target) level.
Hope this is of help.
Kind Regards
Eddie
markymar
- 13 Aug 2005 10:33
- 1623 of 6492
ianianian
- 13 Aug 2005 19:39
- 1624 of 6492
Eddie
Thank you for the explanation.
I find all this charting information that you and lynzal post on here fascinating.
Can you recommend any books on the subject suiable for a novice?
Ian
eddieshare
- 13 Aug 2005 20:15
- 1625 of 6492
Hi Ian
What trading platform do you use. Do you day trade, or do you buy and hold for a short time / long time ?
Kind Regards
Eddie
eddieshare
- 13 Aug 2005 21:09
- 1626 of 6492
Hi Ian
I collect my data using Sharescope. You can download the demonstration version for free. The download has historic charts which allows you to work your way through the programe and get a feel for it. If you like it you can down load the full version. You have three options of which depends on how you trade, if you buy and hold then end of day data (Sharescope gold) will be great for you. If you trade using dealyed time then (Sharescope plus) is for you. If you are an agressive trader then you will need (Sharescope pro) for upto the minute data. I would recomend to just go for downloading the full version of end of day data. This will give you time to study the charts. It costs just under 80.00p for a life time memership, whith subscrition of about 14.00p per month, for the data feed. The charts are fully customisable. You can chose from candle, renco, kagi, three line break, point & figure, bar charts. You can add lines & text to the charts. You have a tax gain calulator. You can paper trade in loads of different portfolio's, group sectors ect. If you were going to invest in anything then I would recomend this, sharescope has won many awards. Udates are all included in you initial membership for life. (www.sharescope.co.uk) You don't need to continue with this product if it's not for you. There is no minimum subscription. I downloaded the demonstration version, within 10 minutes I went for the full version. I still rate this tool. There are many more features I havn't used yet. Many more will be added.
Then move onto books, The Candlelstick Course by Steve Nison (Wiley Trading). Beyond Candlesticks by Steve Nison (Wiley Trading). Encylopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski (Wiley Trading)
Kind Regards
Eddie
Captguns
- 14 Aug 2005 08:42
- 1627 of 6492
http://business.scotsman.com/utilities.cfm?id=1776792005
Rockhopper intent on flotation despite shortfall in fundraising
IAIN DEY
CITY EDITOR
ROCKHOPPER Exploration, the oil minnow chaired by former Enterprise Oil chief executive Pierre Jungels, is pressing ahead with its flotation this week, despite raising just half of its original fundraising target.
Shares in the company, which is planning to drill in waters off the Falkland Islands, will begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market tomorrow morning.
While Jungels had previously said he wanted to raise 30m of new money, the firm has raked in only 15m.
Nevertheless, the company insists it can still finance most of the work programme it committed to while marketing the float.
Chief executive Sam Moody said: "You have to look forward with these things. We've raised 15m, we've got a good list of blue-chip shareholders on our register and we can go ahead with our work programme.
"We have had to slightly curtail our plans, but we can still do all the main seismic work we were planning to do and we can still drill the well with Desire."
Rockhopper has been awarded a number of licences in the 700 square kilometre North Falkland basin, some of which were previously drilled by Shell in the 1990s.
The company has also farmed into a further prospect with Desire Petroleum.
It is understood that some potential investors were concerned about how long it will take Desire to drill the shared block, given the current shortage of jack-up rigs.
Moody said: "It is tough out there - there's been the Regal Petroleum thing, it's the summertime, there have been a number of companies doing the rounds, but we've still raised 15m."
The company's pre-float valuation has also been cut to 15m rather than the hoped for 40m.
Moody said the firm is no longer planning to do 3D seismic work on some of its blocks, and will stick to cheaper 2D research at this stage.
The float has been run jointly by small-cap brokers Arden Partners and Ambrian Partners. Arden analysts have previously estimated that the company's assets could be worth 80m. A report by an independent consultancy indicated that Rockhopper's prospects could hold 500 million barrels of risked reserves.
Jungels and Moody have assembled a heavyweight board to support the flotation. Chris Walton, the former easyJet finance director, is a non-executive director. The firm's exploration director is Keith Williams, former exploration director at Kerr-McGee's UK arm. Peter Dixon-Clarke, formerly with Lloyds insurer Amlin, has been appointed finance director. Other non-execs include industry veterans Dave Bodecott and John Crowle
luckyswimmer
- 14 Aug 2005 11:12
- 1628 of 6492
Nice find Capt, well looks like all the money is on the table now, just. If Desire contribute all their cash (24m) then Rockopper's maximum contribution would be only 10m (assuming they do a 70%:30% split) so they can afford that with 15m in the bank now. Interesting that the institutions were not too bullish, it can't be easy to ask for money from someone who dug deep for Regals placing two weeks before it crashed and maybe watched their contribution of 45p a share to Desire sink into the 30s aswell.
we can still drill THE well with Desire
Was that a mistake by Moody, surely he meant 3 or more, perhaps there is an extra single drill on another prospect
farmed into a further prospect with Desire Petroleum
that could mean either he's paid for a share of another tranche of Desire's or more interestingly agreed to drill an extra well somewhere. On a second reading I think that phrase may just be referring to the 30% farm-in on C/D that we already know about. No doubt we'll find out on Monday which.