Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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How much further can we go? Combining some channel lines on the Dow;



and scaling in;



an approximation, i see the lines have slipped a bit from being produced on the 4hr... IG's charts... grrrrrrrrr

The thing that would concern me here is that we haven't had an extended wave of the 3rd (yet), its highly likely that the 5th could be. Raising the channel line off of the top of the 3rd gives more scope, but 5 going to 100% level wouldn't surprise me;



I will be keeping a close eye on smaller timescales to watch for a reflex point to be broken in a minor 5w move south, until this happens its go long off of every ABC...

I have another set of channel lines off of the whole move, but we would need a 300+ point up day to get anywhere near them...

So first 5 wave move short and breach of previous reflex points (as has happened on index's and various dollar pairs), followed by an ABC , suggests more downside to come, (after the 'C' of 'B' finishes)... either the second 5 wave move ('C' wave), if corrective, or perhaps the start of something a little more severe...

Could that have been a big ole 4th?

Back to this afternoon and the more immediate plan, i'm hoping for a clean trigger out of the flag for virtually gauranteed target. Lots of waiting for the trade to materialise, but at least the plan is in place... no trigger, no trade... lets see;

The chart in post 165 is actually awesome, despite looking like a bloody rainbow!
Using channel lines on top of Fib's can build a deadly picture. GbpJpy this time, same outcome, (this is done in hindsight, i must confess... i was elsewhere at the time);

Post 167; It presently looks as if we are playing out the 'C' wave of the correction. I don't like the way it made a clear 5w short, ruling out a flat or irregular 'B' wave and yet clearly retraced well in excess of 61.8% of 'A'. It would normally mean, that instead of it being a 5-3-5 correction, it was actually waves 1&2 of a new down move, however as i have shown in workings earlier, the bigger picture, i believe trend is still 'up' right now...

It looks far more likely we have just created a lovely angle for a flagline (long) and this 'C' wave will be somewhat short, possibly even with no fresh low. Its too difficult to call right now, but the extended 'B' wave earlier effectively ended the hope of a flag trade and thus we must adapt to the new PA...

I did short this 'C' wave, but have already banked profit, as i can't read the wave count right now. It could be creating a much larger leg (short), but i don't think so, time to watch and wait for more evidence. The market will still be there tomorrow and to be fair, i would now rather be looking for this scenario instead (*subject to change!*);



The 61.8% level of 'A' (for total of 'C') puts it currently right on the lower blue flagline.

Incidentally, these were the workings to determine the likely end of minor wave 'C' of the 'B' wave;



Minor wave 'C' was 238.2% of minor 'A'.

Hopefully if any lurkers are following you can understand me?! Take the chart in 169, (i kept it simple), delete the A&B and replace it with 1&2 and you can see the opposite scenario exists, it would mean we are now in the 3rd and could go a long way south. Unfortunately, as easy as the Euro was to read last night, its currently not so obvious. When in doubt stay out... a bit more PA and it should become obvious!

My thoughts are that we didn't reach any important Fib level that i could see to call a top. There are many counts that this pullback could conform to and thus still be merely corrective. We will know soon enough.

Just as an aside, it might be a bit early to state this just yet, but, right now the Dow has also bounced cleanly off of its lower channel and as previously stated, i reckon it has further north to go yet and this is a corrective move... PA a little difficult to determine right now, but by rights we should now be in our 'B' wave, a clean break of the lower TL will gain attention.



I'm currently watching to see if i can recognise a minor 5w up or down. Again this afternoons data has made things a little harder to decipher... time for a cuppa instead!

*Edit* late Thurs eve, looks like being in minor 'C' of 'B', so 5w short to come?

Wow, some nasty spike down on the Dow. Hmmmmm, sometimes being GMT+2 can be a right pain in the arse! I feel that working 12 hours a day is quite enough! I felt last night, before shutting down, that we were in minor 'C' of 'B' with the 'C' wave short to come. However, it could have dragged on for all night for all i knew and my disciplined approach means i can't take a 'freestyle' short, there has to be the minor 5w down first to enable a stop placement (pip above the high). On top of that, who knows how severe the 'C' wave will be? It could be shallow, long, slow, diagonal etc etc, but its always annoying to wake up and see a really fast and deep one missed!

Ok, my own words, the market will still be there tomorrow...

It looks likely the top of the 5th of the 3rd was indeed reached as with the breach of the previous lower TL last night, it makes this a likely 4th. A break of 13,013 negates, (which also makes the low of the spike one hell of a good R:R trade), no good seeing it in hindsight admittedly, however!).
We should now be able to re-adjust our channel lines and start looking for projections as to a 5th wave;



As always, nothing is set in stone. The one thing to stress is that, views, targets change with more PA, a plan is exactly that, it can later be proved wrong, but so long as we adjust accordingly and only take the low risk trades, then we can beat the market. Its obvious that one wrong count can throw everything out and cause losses, that's where the discipline kicks in...

Right, looks like i'm missing tonnes of 4th waves right now... lots to do, little time!

Possible Cable;

That will teach me... posting on here instead of working... just missed what appears to be a 4th wave trade on the GbpJpy. Remember yesterday? A clear 5w 'A' down move. Obviously followed by B&C;



Now a close up of 'C';



Bit hastily done, so will try and determine a minor 5/3, in case its not too late for a trade...

*Edit*, hmmmm the 'C' wave of 4 isn't clear enough, so will watch this one with hands sat upon...

Quick update, post 155; Dax;



(The '5' was as far to the right of the screen as i could manage and not meant to be to scale!) I'm not pretending to be able to call the wave structure in advance. I never took this trade as i missed the best entry point (again!), the point is it that the prediction was higher to come... even banking at point 'a' would have seen a handsome profit. I need to get sharper...

Update;

Post 176, GbpJpy... A frustrating day, missed entry by couple of minutes and the minor wave 2 was complex, thus impossible to read, todays missed trade;

Earlier;



Update;



That's 80 pips gone begging (and an original 35pip risk, although any deeper than the 38.2% retrace level and its highly unlikely to have been a 4th wave any longer, so feasibly, you could have reduced that to 10pips)

Primary target (the 61.8% extension) has been hit, not being able to read the 5th wave, would have seen me exit here. Nothing wrong in leaving a bit for the next man if it continues lower. It may head to its lower TL and the 100% level, but if the trade had been taken, i know in my heart the profit would have had to have been banked here! Look for the next set-up i guess...

Ok, so who shot Cable then? Come on, own up! I thought there was lower to come, but i didn't realise how poorly it was feeling.

Ok, well, time to get off of here. My friends King Kavod and Baron beer are here, so its better for all if i refrain from posting anymore tonight!

Have a great weekend all... )

One last one this side of Christmas! I say that, but for me, where i am, Christmas is 7th Jan and a very traditional affair... nothing to do with giving of gifts at all, so its not feeling particularly Christmassy for me at all right now, (apart from the fact there is three feet of snow outside)

Anyway, hour and half ago;



Update, (slight adjustment of lower TL req'd);



Merry Christmas all )

So a Happy and (hopefully) prosperous New Year to everyone.

Euro; and i was getting all geared up to look further south earlier (after an ABC retrace)



however i notice that, looking on the daily, the 5-3-5 (Y wave) shown above (100% of each other) doesn't reach any Fib level of the first set (W) wave;



Therefore it is far more likely to be broken down into a further W-X-Y move of which we are near the end of the 'C' wave of the 'X'. This would see a further complete 5-3-5 to come (on the daily) taking us to approx 13,800 which will be 100% of the original 'W' wave...



The recent ABC count looks far more likely (imo).
Ok, so this is looking longer term and merely an overall plan; The next thing to look for will be minor 5 waves up ('A') breaching the prior 4th wave (reflex point), after a smaller ABC retrace ('B') we can get long, knowing at least we will have a 5w 'C' to follow.
Failing this, an (irregular) ABC will signal further weakness.