DES article in the telegraph
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Falkland Islands oil is back in the frame, with shares in Desire Petroleum quadrupling this year and Falkland Oil and Gas also listing on Aim. High oil prices have invigorated frontier exploration and hopes run high.
Experienced players will recall the 1998 excitement about Desire, whose shares rocketed and then fell like a stone when drilling revealed that the oil had "migrated".
A distinction between investors and speculators is that investors regard drilling as the only proof, while speculators know there are trading profits to be made from anticipation. As an enterprising investor, I am willing to back exploration but I prefer a company to have sound cash flows from production too. Stances on these shares often boil down to your risk appetite.
Desire soared from 9p to 37p (now 25p) on speculation about the value of seismic data. Desire is re-appraising acreage to the north of the islands: whilst this is at an early stage "a number of significant prospects are emerging". This is still much too speculative for me.
Funding the Falklands
Falkland Oil targets a large area to the south and east, which has a different geology. Instead of potential elephants (industry-speak for very big finds) the talk is of whales.
Aim-listed Hardman Resources and Global Petroleum of Australia, are industry partners, and Falkland Oil owns 77.5 per cent of seven licences. Eight large prospects are each understood to have potential reserves of 200m to 600m barrels. Punters should consider the prospectus, especially its risk factors, when it is published this week. See www.fogl.co.uk or phone 020 7418 8900.
Funding is in place for seismic tests later this year; then up to 8.4m of funds currently being raised will be used for further tests next year. You can see from Desire's share price how such "results", or anticipation of them, can be enough to spark speculation. Falkland Oil has every incentive to impress the market, as it will need to raise substantial funds to drill from late 2006.
So Falkland Oil is tapping investors for cash quite early in its industrial programme. A timeframe of six months to a year before drilling could have been easier to sustain speculative interest. In terms of market risk, it is possible that some players in the shares will decide to take a profit (or loss) if they sense more excitement elsewhere.
My approach to risk and reward tells me to wait until the prospect firms up, though it is possible that I might miss a party in the shares well before then. As a careful investor, I am also mindful that whales also tend to migrate.
Demand on this over-crowded island will always ensure a property price premium | Funding the Falklands