how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

US looking bearish on my charts.
But what do I know?

Swing and P@F charts are both Bearish.

But we are near psychological support levels and coming
to the end of the quarter. Funds will normally buy and
window dress to put a good face on for the punters around
now.

Not one to second guess here, IMHO. Just keep it cold and
clinical and do what the charts tell you. To short here would
be saying that you have called a trend change before it happens.

If you are wrong then the risk reward ratio wouldn't look very
good, because you would have shorted at the bottom.
Better to wait for confirmation and take some of it rather than
being greedy and trying to catch all of it.

Unless of course you are a big risk taker going for maximum profits,
in that case, fill yer boots as the saying goes. ;-)

Melnibone.

hi gang:
Early in today.
Sea of red on the Ftse today -but held at support and the dow looking a bit stable at the moment.Will see what happens at the open today and what direction it takes whether to test the support at 10000 and lower or pop up.
No idea tm.
As they say all will be revealed soon!!!!

rgds
zarif

An interesting Email I had From Daily Trend Watch (price hedleys)

Many market commentators are suggesting of late that the low points in the CBOE Volatility Index (usually known as VIX, but here we focus on the VXO which uses the original S&P 100 Index as its base) were a sign of too much optimism in the market. While that proved true on a short-term basis, I wanted to point out the longer-term levels in the VXO that have defined the type of market we are experiencing. In the bull market days of the early to mid-1990s, note how volatility never really stayed above the 20% to 25% levels (drawn in by two horizontal red lines in the monthly chart below).  This was a very favorable period to buy and ride the stock market for steady annualized gains approaching 20% in most years except 1994, which acted as a sideways market. But notice that starting in the summer of 1997, the VXO started to form a higher level of volatility. In the fall of 1997 the Dow plunged over 500 points in a day on fears of deflation from the "Asian contagion" of falling prices in the Fart East. Then the market settled down and recovered, bringing the VXO back to a new low around 20% in early to mid 1998. Then in the late summer of 1998, the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle occurred, causing another spike in volatility up near 60%. But as the markets recovered, notice how the VIX again failed to pierce the 20% threshold as the new lower boundary for volatility in late-1998 and the middle of 1999. Then as tech stock started to crater, the VXO would pop up into the 35-40% zone, only to settle back near 20% in the summers of 2000 and 2001, the latter occurring right before the VXO surge into and after 9/11. Then one more settling back near 20% occurred in early 2002, right before the summer plunge in the markets on the fallout from the corporate scandals from Enron and WorldCom among other concerns of corporate fraud. But notice how in the fall of 2003, as the market continued to plow ahead, this 20% VXO barrier was breached to the downside. To me, this implies that we are moving into a period of better trending markets to the upside, with lower risk than what many have grown accustomed to. So the recent spike in the VXO up to just over 21% followed by a turn back down under 20% suggests that we are seeing a likely buying opportunity in the midst of the short-term fears about terrorism in Spain and election concerns about which candidate will win the presidency. While there is no certainty on a short-term basis that things can't get worse, my expectation is to buy this dip as long as the VXO is not spiking over the 25% level. If we get over 25%, then we could be in for rougher sledding to come. But until then, the big picture says that things changed for the better in late-2003, and that spikes up into the 20-25% zone should be bought like we saw back in the mid-1990's. Monthly Chart of the OEX-Based CBOE Volatility Index (VXO)rgds

zarif

He makes an good case zarif. Let's see.

interesting reading zarif. will wait to see what happens before i make a decision today.
good luck guys.
ps. snoball - you still doing reuters?

javid

Not at the moment javid. considering shorting the s&p.

I think a lot of us are wondering which way to jump
at the moment.

This is like walking a tightrope. :-)

Melnibone.

Considering doesn't work. Action is what counts. :-)

1102.6 is a 55 day low on an end of day chart.
The turtle traders use this as a bear signal.
If the price stays below there it will be v bearish.
In my opinion.

I bit the bullet - i'm short the S&P.

closed short for zero points.

The 55 day highs and lows on the S&P

Wow in Dow Today as closed the short for 75 pts.
Just watching atm. and have got a short on the cable.

rgds
zarif

nice work zarif.
still short (again) on the S&P.

Snoball:
Managed a quick long and am just watching.
Added to the short on cable with a wide stop on June.
I reckon the dow will keep bobbing up/down and than hopefully will sell off towards the close.ImHo.

rgds
zarif

Short was stopped for a point.
previous short was a loss for 5 points.
just watching atm.
tend to agree with you re sell off towards close.

Yipee what a short.Dow certainly went down.
Quids in atm.
rgds
rgds
zarif

decided on an overnight short as it all looks rather bearish.
watch out for a correction tomorrow.

nite

Morning one and all:
Off to a Gann Seminar at stockport by Fred stafford and Tony Zafar
Happy trading
Will keep u updated abt the seminar when i come back.This seminar is a two day affair.
Have left a cable long open June contract.

rgds
zarif