< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

How on earth is this only 150p ?...

Much of the news was already available along with market sentiment is imo the reason, they need to start proving up those 1.4bbo,as low confirmed reserves(for a company with this M/Cap)?>

Could afford to have a little top up on this one, don't think i'll be sorry.,.

Liberum summary note:
"Few surprises in Afrens IMS. Working interest production for Q1 2011 was 9,700 bbls/day, reflecting the achievement of cost recovery in Okoro.
Phase 2 of the EBOK development is progressing as expected. EBOK gross production is currently is 17,000 bbls/day and we expect Afren to achieve the 35,000 bbls/day target once Phase 2 is complete. East African exploration acreage looks increasingly promising and we view the farm-in to the Tanzanian Tanga licence, contiguous to the two Kenyan licences already held by Afren, as an improvement to the portfolio. Management have disclosed the Gross P50 resources for this licence as 200 mmboe. It has just finished a 2D seismic acquisition, calling the early results encouraging, and expects to commence drilling by year end.
There appear to be few catalysts in the near term. The next newsflow looks like either a licence acquisition in Nigeria from an Oil Major or results from the Keta well in Ghana due in Q3 (up to 70p if successful).
Overall the IMS contains little new and we do not expect to change our numbers significantly on the back of it.
Our PT remains at 167p. HOLD."

Morgan Stanley view:
Minor operational issues (CI-11 unrest & Ebok delays) impacted 1Q production (~10kboed) but FY11 production guidance unchanged at 40kboed. We believe the market materially under appreciates and undervalues the strength of the core asset base and upside potential that exists across the portfolio. With production at Ebok already ahead of expectations and set to ramp-up yet further in 2Q; plus an exciting 2H drilling campaign ahead we reiterate our OW & 215p PT.
Valuation: Afren continues to trade at an unwarranted discount to Core NAV and is one of the cheapest stocks we cover. Our Core and Base NAV remain broadly unchanged at 159p/sh and 214p/sh, representing +7% and +45% upside, respectively.
Catalysts: Looking forward to a 2H11 weighted exploration programme 1) Cuda prospect (3Q11, Ghana, 325mboe, unrisked ~72p/sh); 2) Okwok (2H11, Nigeria, 70mboe, 27p/sh unrisked; and 3) Ebok D2 (Nigeria, 35mboe, ~11p/sh unrisked, 2H11). Elsewhere, a farm-down of Afrens 70% interest in OPL-310 is on going with a result also expected in 2H11.

steady eddy today - good stuff - 200 + q3 or slightly earlier imo

Questor in the Sunday Telegraph says 'Buy':

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8526728/Questor-share-tip-Afren-targets-high-impact-drilling.html

Am tempted to sell on monday and buy back at a slightly lower price (145p?) Am not convinced this temporary down trend is over yet.

Sell half

I'm sticking in no matter what till at least AGM 06th June then may (hopefully) consider taking profits.

HC
the above 2 comments both have merit.
as does yours.
145 is below short term weekly 50% retracement.
good luck to you on whatever you decide.
regards
jkd

I'm with you Chris, possibly follow Ald's advice but quite likely to stay put. All depends on how it looks on the day.,.

Not sure and depends on your entry point, but graph is making me nervous particularly as the market in general seems to be getting soggy.

I don't know why the chart is making you nervous the SP is making higher highs and at the very least finding support at 145p in a consolidation pattern, one could also argue the SP is making higher lows, what more could you want from a chart? I don't see the market as 'soggy' but in a consolidation period.

Lower highs and lower lows. Unless my interpretation is inaccurate? (certainly in downtrend since beginning of april).
Also, it depends on whether you would prefer to hold and ride out the lows or actively trade them. It just seems frustrating and unnecessary to let profit slide when I am able to watch a screen during most week days. Of course, my buy price was only 130p, so I did not get in right at the bottom (I wish) so I would prefer to realise some kind of profit rather than sit there and wish I had when the sp drifts back and back.
Support at approx 145p, I agree with!

HC
i think you may well have got in at a recent major bottom at 130sh.
why trade it away? why not just sit tight? especially with a major support level having now been established up at 145sh giving a good buffer for a stop loss level. its almost a guaranteed long term profit, LoL does such a thing exist? depending on your strategy of course.
it may "dump" tomorrow, thats the risk in these small oilies, but what if?
when and IF price moves up through 170sh can you be sure you will still be holding?
we are all different and have different investment needs and criteria.
just my opinion as always. and good luck to you.
reghards
jkd

If you want to trade a six week time frame on which to base your decisions, good luck, my comment referred to at least a 12 month chart.

didnt the telegraph tip this as a buy yesterday?

I wouldn't wanna be out of these!!

you beat me to it bb!! me neither!! you know it makes sense!

i was expecting this to end the day blue - but a so so day here is ok also!!