rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

it's a pretty difficult call i agree .... have already set a stop on my Dow so shall at least get shut out at a profit if it gets hit

Question for you - I trade with barclays - and they charge me 12.50 per trade - hence why I am trying not to do lots of little trades. having said that - I have traded 12 times today - so cost me 150. Is that expensive - or are there cheaper options ?

Well, I've stopped looking for short positions and have drawn an up channel for this afternoon's activity, sitting right at the bottom as I type so plenty of room for more upside...............if it goes up :S

Dropped out of the channel

PTH: thought you'd have your short running now

Toya, I have been short, long and just about everything else!!! Unfortunately I keep picking the wrong moments to close trades by losing faith in my own analysis :( 12320 was the pivot for that particular move and I should have stayed with it rather than closing for a small profit.

Not reading this at well today, so unless my befuddled brain cell wakes up, I won't be trading again this evening

I've not done well either, which is v annoying as the ftse did everything I wanted of it this morning!

dow down to 12,280 - might just be time to climb on board - but I promised I was going to sit on my hands tonight - so I wont be investing.

bh .... guess it depends on whether that is a flat rate regardless of the contract value ... if it is, then in general it sounds pretty cheap ..... however, if you use s/b or cfd, then ask someone like IG about their charges and spread

was shut out of last 50% of Dow, but at a modest profit (no one ever went bankrupt that way!), but still have small FTSE long running which shall leave for the time being to see how Dow finishes up (or down)

DOW looking a bit shaky now, yet again I regret not keeping an ultimately sound position open, although jumped on that particular slide for 16 pts. But it works both ways, I did have a hefty long open in the 90s which I subsequently closed flat.

Thats almost 18 years PT - some long !!!!

lol

Never let it be said I don't persevere :)

So sell off or rally prior to the close?

Perhaps the yanks would prefer a positive finish for a change?

impossible to tell .... am inclined to think sell-off but not putting money on it

Oh my Gawd, shorted that rise from 280 right on the money and closed far too early yet again!!!!!!!!!! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Think it might just fizzle out for the day, that's me finished anyway. Difficult day for short time frame trading, well was for me anyway, but ended the day in profit which is the main thing.

LoL :))

Didn't see that coming

Didn't believe my short would ever get back to 12248 - had thought earlier that it would keep edging down, instead of which it shot up! Can't believe I've come through it unscathed! Definitely need some wine to steady my nerves now.

Nerves of steel, Toya, if you waited until now ;)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Brace yourself for darker days.

As the first quarter draws to an end, evidence is gathering that the economy contracted in the January to March period, as consumers hurt by the damaged housing market, high energy and food prices and the credit crunch rein in their spending. The second quarter is likely to be a downer as well.

The two anticipated consecutive quarters of contracting growth would put the economy squarely in a recession, based on the common definition of the "R" word. Many would also say the economic slowdown has met the conditions for recession set by the official arbiter of business cycles, the National Bureau for Economic Research: a significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting more than a few months.

Late last week, the Economic Cycle Research Institute - which correctly called the 2001 recession - threw its weight behind the recession call. "The U.S. economy is now on a recession track," it said in a special report.

"We believe that the economy is already in a recession," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management. "Growth will contract in the first half 2008."

What happens beyond the first half is where opinions divide. While most economists agree that the government's much anticipated rebate checks will lift consumer spending in the second half of 2008, the headwinds from housing and the credit crunch remain formidable. On the other hand, consumers could get another round of help from the government later in the year. As a result, some see the economy back on course heading into 2009. Others don't expect real relief to come until 2010.


A Rough Ride Until Summer

For the first quarter of 2008, the litany of weak economic data seen thus far point to an anemic performance at best.

Data for the first two months of the year already show a pullback in consumer spending - the crux of the economy as it accounts for about 70% of the gross domestic product.

In February, spending grew just 0.1% before inflation - compared with an 0.4% increase in January - despite decent gains in income.

Caron said she expects spending for the first quarter to be close to flat, leading to an annualized growth rate of -1% in gross domestic product. The second quarter should see a similarly sharp drop in growth.

In the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP collapsed to a 0.6% annualized rate after a 4.9% pace in the previous quarter. The first reading on 2008 first quarter GDP comes on April 30.

Also suggesting a further fall in spending this year is plunging consumer confidence. In March, consumer confidence fell for the third straight month, according to the Conference Board, to its lowest level since the Iraq War began in 2003. More worrisome was that expectations for how the economy will fare six months ahead dropped as well, to a 35-year low.

Then there's the battered housing sector, which has shown few signs of life since it first tripped up in 2006. Falling home prices have sharply reduced the value of many consumers' largest asset, and a rash of mortgage resets as well as tightening credit conditions in general could lead to more delinquencies and foreclosures.

"The shock is not over," said Michelle Meyer, economist at Lehman Brothers in New York. While home sales could well bottom by the end of the summer, Meyer said, home prices "still probably have a ways to fall," and inventories are quite high.

Add in the stresses of the credit crunch and high energy and food prices, and conditions are ripe for a sharp slowdown. Stocks hit a high in October and have since fallen with nervous investors fleeing riskier assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 stock indexes this quarter were down 7.4% and 9.8%, respectively. Energy prices have also been skyrocketing. Benchmark crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to $101.58 a barrel Monday from $55.40 a barrel three years ago.

Meyer expects first quarter growth to fall to an annualized -0.5% rate, with some improvement seen in the second quarter, when growth should recover to an annualized -0.1% rate. But the economy's performance will remain well below its potential growth rate of 2.75% amid a "marked slowdown" in consumer spending, she said.

With consumers spending less in the first half of the year, businesses will scale back on operations and slim down on staff. That's been borne out by the data, with businesses equipment spending falling both in January and February. Jobless claims are already at persistently elevated levels, and the economy has lost jobs in the first two months of 2008. January's drop was the first in over four years. The latest jobs report, for March, is set to be released on Friday. Economists are looking for a fall of 60,000 this month compared with the previous month's 63,000 drop.


Possible Pickup Eyed With Caution

Once the rebate checks arrive in the mail, consumers should be energized and spending should pick up in the second half of 2008.

"The stimulus package will be effective," said Brian Fabbri, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. Fabbri expects at least half to two-thirds of the funds to be spent, pushing GDP into positive territory. The key question though is, will the summer lift in spending spark businesses to start hiring again?

If so, the economy could be on its way to a recovery. Many are also anticipating further fiscal stimulus sometime this year, which would brighten the picture. The effects of the Federal Reserve's hefty interest rates eases should also start to kick in, as should the central bank's actions to keep markets afloat. Homeowners could get some relief from the expanded mortgage buying programs at the Congressionally-chartered housing finance firms, which would provide an additional boost.

Those are many "ifs," and for now, the pessimists seem to outweigh the optimists.

Meyer at Lehman expects to see "sluggish consumer spending" next year as glee over the government's assistance gives way to concerns over still falling home prices and rising foreclosures.

With economic conditions worsening, Dwight Asset's Caron expects the jobless rate to rise - to a 6% rate by early 2009 from the current 4.9% - and nonfarm payrolls to continue to come in negative.

"My concern is that the labor market will weaken substantially, which will deter consumers from leaving their bunkers," Caron said. She pointed to a vicious feedback loop, with job losses leading to less spending, hurting businesses even more and sparking more job losses. The process is already in place, she added. "It's now gathering speed like a cyclone."

Adding to the doom and gloom view are fears that economic weakness could start to radiate around the globe in 2009. Such a development could kick the strong net export crutch out from under the U.S. economy, weakening an already soft economic outlook even more.