The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

moneyplus.... I am a girl too:-)

Well! What do you know! I thought you were very perceptive, Jules, when it came to pre-educational children's toys! We really are being taken over, fellows. What on earth remains sacrosanct - heaven, you say, oh thank goodness for that! lol! Typical man, laughs at his own jokes!

Eric

EW... I'm very good at multi tasking:-)

Jules, here's wishing you well with the upcoming Op. We expect to hear from you on progress. John

john.. not me yet but moneyplus who is having the replacement.

Don't worry, Jules, John is mere man and all legs are the same to him! Eric

Oops, apologies Jules and good luck MoneyPlus...not sure though that all legs are the same to me, perhaps to Eric, but then again!! John

Continuing the Technicals, all previous provisos remain:

IDOX: Current SP around 11p and seems to have a entered a slight uptrend over the last 6 months bounded by 12.75 to 9.42p. Always difficult to say what will happen next to the SP of such a small cap share that seems to be range bound. Current trend is down and I would place my SL at the lower bound of the channel.

AUG: Remains in a strong uptrend, with an upper target of 290p and beyond. Currently looking to push higher.

SPS: Brushing aside the glories of Year 2000 where the SP hit a peak approaching 6 we are now looking for support at the 200 day ma around 45p, which is where I would place my SL if you are mindful to do so. All indicators suggest further falls from here.

CIU: Taking a long term view we have a slow fall from a SP high of 280p in June '94 to a low of 5p in Nov 02, since then we have a wonderful, almost linear uptrend currently sitting at 168p. I see an upper resistance level at 200p+ Indicators currently recovering from overbought levels and I would use the 50 day MA as a SL, currently at 155p.

NRG: This stock really took off in Aug 2003. Using that trend line there is uptrend support at 190p which is where I would place my SL. Although current trend is down it is unlikely to fall back that far and has a target at present of 260p+ but needs to get through 231p on a 2 day basis first.

CASH: In Jan/Feb the SP made a lower high when failing to break through the 144p level. All indicators are for further SP falls so I think a safe SL would be the 50 day ma currently at 129p.

XEN: Well another fallen angel from the high's of Y2000 where the SP hit 450p and currently sits at 7.3p. With the 50 day ma at 7.1p (SL?) I would be watching developments very closely over the next few days.

FTO: Here we have an Oil company that for some reason has not yet really taken off. The SP is currently becalmed around 8 -8.5p. I see support at 7p and it needs to get back up through 10p to start flying again.

NMC: Unable to find data...

TND: Currently hitting the resistance line of a slow uptrend bounded by 24.7 and 18.1p. Needs to break through 25p on a 2 day basis and gather steam. Slightly overbought on the indicators but with small caps anything is possible.

PAY: A strong uptrend remains in place. I note a failure to get through the 268p peak recently, but on balance I would say the stock will try again in due course. SL at the recent low of 238p seems reasonable as it went through the 50 day ma decisively recently and found this level, presumably to bounce out some Bulls!

BNH: 140p resistance level and support kicking in at 105p. All indicators currently nuetral to negative. We still have the uptrend in place but the SP action over the last month is not encouraging.

PMD: Profile Media Group I think...almost impossible to call. There are some signs of encouragement though for the Bulls and the patient.

KYS: Not enough data to form a view that really means anthting except to say that the SP has been in a downtrend ever since it came to market.

EPD: The 50 day ma presents a perfect SL (well perhaps a couple of pts below). The SP has demonstrated some positive upsigns this year but overall it remains in the long term downtrend of the past few years. There is clearly some resistance to break through in the 55p zone before we could really say that EPD is chaging direction.

As promised earlier this wekk I will finish the analysis of all the choices by close of play tomorrow. If I missed anything please advise. Meanwhile I note that when I last posted the FTSE Small Cap was riding close to an all time high, since which we have seen some retracement...this is a good sign IMO, as I still see the 2005 growth being in small caps, although perhaps not in the hope and glory stocks!

John

Eric

Looks like I am going to have to go on the offensive. Can you please transfer my holding in NRG to WNN at close of business today.

Thanks and keep up the good work

capa

OK capa. Note to all: this is your last opportunity to switch - see my post 122; there were no objectors. Preferably by 8 p.m. today but that could be stretched to 8 p.m. Sunday as per the original time limit!

A thousand thanks to johngtudor. Not wanting to embarrass him, but I have not come across a better chartist in my life (which is really two years investment wise) as he always has the fundamentals in the back of his mind and is not slavish to the charts.

Eric

Last opportunity to switch, folk. You are going to be amazed at this. Yours truly is selling MLS: quite a nice little profit and could well move ahead further, bu what else would I sell, with SEO, a potential financial explosion in CFP and a hidden diamond in NML. The buy has gone up 40% today (I would have bought it last night, honest!), i.e. GMC - will explain later but don't want everyone going and buying it!

Switches accepted up until 8 p.m. Sunday; I won't post till later on Sunday evening. Lots of clues in jgt's chart analysis! Jules, capa and I are in the chasing pack and need a shot in the arm (or a booster up the backside, ladies excepted of course!). Chink appearing in the armour of bos and seb - may be weighed down by the expectation of leadership! What about Chelsea - mind Newcastle and Barcelona are formidable foes, in that order!

Eric

Eric, your flattery will of course get you everywhere but seriously there are lots of very good chartists around, most of them are making fortunes somewhere or other whereas I...

Anyway to continue with the last tranche of the Technicals...

PET: This of course is what I would call a true 'hope and glory' stock, and what harm is there having one or two of these stocks in your portfolio if for no other reason than to spice it up! If you need spicing that is...the SP is becalmed awaiting news on the award of Major Oil Contracts in Iraq. Almost all indicators are becalmed around the current SP of 43p. The 50 day ma has crossed the 200 in a downwards direction, and until there is some news I do not expect to see much action...but when it comes (either way) look out!

DES: The SP remains in a slow uptrend and there has been an encouraging bounce in the 50p zone over the last few days, which we could now assume offers support. I expect it to attack the higher levels of the trading range in the 70p and beyond in due course.

PDX: Every time I think this particular stock is going to have another crack at the 230p+ zone Evil and his friends short it again. It is currently ideally placed in the middle of an uptrend at 192p and until it releases some really good news, it is unlikely to break free of the current range (140p - 230p). On balance I think there are simply too many other good shares around to keep any investment in this one at present (see earlier notes on this BB to see why I made that statement).

ASC: If there are any holders of this stock left may I suggest you see my notes on the ASC BB this evening.

TAD: On the surface this stock looks very weak. I am not sure how much further it can fall but something nasty seems to have happened at the end of January and the SP needs to recover to around 10p before any real opportunity presents itself. For now the shorters have this stock by the horns.

PKL: The selling may be over for now as it found a support level in the 140p zone, but it has to get back to the 159p level to recover its poise and frankly looks unlikely to do so in the short term...at least for this competition. The SP drop on the 28th Jan which has continued albiet more slowly suggests not all is well. If it was me I would be looking to move on given all the wonderful opportunities elsewhere.

Eric, I think that's it. Please identify the new additions and I will have a look at them next week. I am still alive after my previous notes, but perhaps that is more by luck than anything else because not many people have reviewed them yet!!

As to my suggestions, please sell my holding in PDX (where Evil is Short)and place it in GMC, where Evil is long! I hear that GMC may be merging with 'Sporting Bet' so who knows!!

Have a good w/end everyone.


John

"AUG: Remains in a strong uptrend, with an upper target of 290p and beyond. Currently looking to push higher."

Cheers John :-)

I'm out of CASH EW so flog them at todays close , I agree with the above analysis by John.

Please invest proceeds in SLV , man in the pub said they were gonna fly ;-)

PS I have no investment in slv at this point in time but I do in SLP which own tons of slv , dyor , etc , etc

Dil, just me left in CASH then, have you sold ?

John, I have switched one of my holdings to WNN, highly illiquid and I would be amazed if you could make any sense from their chart, but I would be grateful for any input.

capa

Yes capa , didn't see enough follow through for my liking after the positive trading statement.

Still on the watch list and I'm always willing to get back in if my perception changes.

Good luck capa.

Eric,

Would like to change my portfolio please. Want to dump sps and pkl (both have value of 5k) Would like to replace wthem with itr.
Think pkl's fall has been over done and it should respond well to any new contracts etc. sps still has bags of potential, but its still a bit of a risky play. Have gone for itr as they look to expose the technology market's continuing improvement. Have set up a bb if anybody wants to take a look.

Cheers

ASOS 2nd CHALLENGE portfolio

Phew! Lot of work to make the trades - hope all OK. No more corrections to shares owned, quantities, price after next weekend; can't cope with any more! You'll have seen the invaluable chart analyses above, undertaken by johngtudor. The last number in each column is the post reference (easiest way to trawl through is via "all messages"). Sorry, john, some more to do please - mind you are one of the culprits!

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 14.5__ 66251 101.7 -6.5 BBSSUUW(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 603.5_ 30658 53.0_ 0.8_ CDMM(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 24.75_ 27225 36.1_ 1.5_ BEMS(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 169.5_ 12984 29.9_ -11.9 JJ(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.4___ 12852 28.6_ -5.3_ WY(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 161.5_ 6299_ 25.9_ -1.2_ B(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 79.25_ 6288_ 25.8_ 3.6__ O(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.1__ 6169_ 23.5_ -0.9_ T(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 233.5_ 6094_ 21.9_ 2.2__ G(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 271.5_ 5878_ 17.7_ 4.2__ C(151)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 77.5__ 11524 15.2_ -7.2_ TT(137)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.5__ 5742_ 14.9_ 0.9__ I(137)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 535.0_ 5725_ 14.7_ 2.4__ P(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 96.75_ 5708_ 14.1_ 2.9__ K(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 365.25 5570_ 11.6_ 19.7_ P(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 902.5_ 5550_ 11.3_ 2.4__ P(151)
TRT_ 87 5750 96.5___ 5549__ 10.9_ 10.0_______ K(151)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 1.0___ 5543_ 10.9_ 29.3_ Y(173)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 68.0__ 10948 9.7__ 1.1__ OO(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 226.0_ 10622 6.4__ -1.3_ GH(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 142.5_ 5237_ 4.8__ -0.7_ A(151)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.75_ 5182_ 3.7__ -5.3_ O(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 23.25_ 25808 3.3__ -4.1_ LLLLR(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 167.5_ 5159_ 3.2__ 0.0__ G(173)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 686.0_ 10290 2.8__ -2.0_ DP(151)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 122.5_ 10186 1.9__ -5.8_ EE(151)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 262.5_ 5079_ 1.6__ -1.3_ G(151)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 257.5_ 10043 0.5__ 0.0__ DE(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 19.0__ 10013 -0.7_______ TW
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 253.5_ 4956_ -0.9_ 0.8__ M(173)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 9.0___ 22275 -1.0_ -6.5_ JSVV(137)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 265___ 4744_ -1.3_______ C
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 7.3___ 4906_ -1.9_ -0.7_ V(173)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 50.0__ 4903_ -2.0_ -1.0_ I(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 49.5__ 19602 -2.0_ -8.3_ AIKK(173)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.6___ 8388_ -2.4_______ HH
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 11.25_ 4551_ -3.2_______ D
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.125_ 4395_ -3.5_ 2.5__ W
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.25_ 4781_ -4.3_ 0.0__ V(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 8.25__ 4744_ -5.1_ 1.5__ Y(173)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 661.0_ 4739_ -5.2_______ J
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 134.5_ 4728_ -5.4_ -0.4_ C(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 115.5_ 18445 -7.8_ 9.5__ AIRR(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 52.25_ 4196_ -16.1 -1.4_ H(177)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 13.25_ 8348_ -16.5 -7.0_ UU(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 191.5_ 4146_ -17.1 -5.4_ A(177)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 43.0__ 3999_ -20.0 -3.9_ R(177)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 7.375_ 3931_ -21.3 9.3__ Y(177)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 58.5_ 14906_ -25.5 -5.6_ ZZZZ(177)

totals_____________ 495853.3_____ 12.7
small-cap 2891.87_________ 2936.9 1.6__ -0.8

bought (25/2)
GMC_ 19.125_ 31100__ 19_____ 5909 W
GMC_ 19.125_ 21600__ 19_____ 4104 T
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.625__ 8388 HH
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 11.25__ 4551 D
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 265____ 4744 C
sold (25/2)
CASH________ 3515___ 133.75_ 4701 D
MLS_________ 69500__ 8.56___ 5949 W
NRG_________ 2270___ 211.75_ 4807 C
PDX_________ 2165___ 190.75_ 4130 T
PKL_________ 2600___ 144.75_ 3764 H
SPS_________ 9900___ 48.75__ 4826 H

PMD and CRDA are movers of the week. I won't attempt any commentary as too late (or early!). Please look through John's analysis for your shares and post any explanatory comments, particularly where you have reason to differ. We all need to take note of the warning signs - you only need to scan through the analysis to get a strong feeling of a 'balanced' viewpoint.

Individual status as follows. bos and seb have come back to the pack a bit although not sure that will alst for long. moneyplus has climbed into third place, although she is climbing nowhere at the moment as in hospital having a knee done - good luck from all of us and many thanks personally for introducing me to GMC. You'll notice that John and I have switched a holding to GMC - what do they say about great minds (and/or fools)? 15 out of 20 positive which is good going.

B 66.4 E 10.1 I 0.8
S 59.6 P 9.9 V -2.1
M 35.5 T 8.9 A -5.5
W 34.1 G 8.2 R -8.1
U 20.9 J 5.6 H -10.7
C 15.1 K 5.3 Z -25.5
O 12.1 Y 4.1
D 11.9 L 3.2

Good trading!

Eric

woo hoo! still top of the league!

Eric has asked for reasons for our investment choices. I am the only one to have chosen GW Pharmaceuticals and have put half my money in it. Here they are:

This is from their Web Site www.gwpharm.com

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GW Pharmaceuticals is licensed by the UK Home Office to work with a range of controlled drugs for medical research purposes. The Group's lead programme is the development of a product portfolio of non-smoked prescription medicines derived from cannabis, including Sativex, to meet patient needs in a wide range of therapeutic indications. The Group has also expanded its research to include the use of other controlled drugs in conjunction with its proprietary secure drug dispensing technology.

GW has submitted regulatory applications for Sativex in both the UK and Canada. Upon approval, Sativex, will be exclusively marketed in both these countries by Bayer HealthCare.

GW maintains control over all aspects of the product development process - botanical research, cultivation, extraction, formulation into drug delivery technologies, clinical trials and regulatory affairs. Cannabis cultivation and production capability have recently been scaled up in preparation for the launch of Sativex.

With a view to encouraging exploratory research and identifying future product opportunities, GW established in March 2002 a separate division called the Cannabinoid Research Institute or CRI. The CRI aims to link industry and academia in conducting exploratory research which it is hoped will lead to the identification of new indications for cannabis-based medicines and greater understanding of the mechanism of action of cannabinoids.

GW has also developed a novel, secure and tamper-proof means of dispensing drugs. The technology is called the Advanced Dispensing System (ADS) and provides high levels of security for dispensing drugs, whilst also enabling clinicians to remotely monitor and, if required, remotely control drug usage in real time. In October 2003, ADS won the AiM Stock Exchange Best Technology Award.


19 Jan 2005 - GW Announces Positive Preliminary Results with its Cannabis-based Medicine (Sativex) in Phase III Cancer Pain Trial

21 Dec 2004 - GW receives Qualifying Notice for approval in Canada for Sativex

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Savitex is mainly for MS sufferers however it can be used to control pain in other conditions.

Currently around 1.23 it has been up to 2.50 previously before delays in the drugs acceptance started hitting the share price.

It seems to me that it is just a matter of time before Savitex is accepted in the UK and when it is the share price should zoom hopefully to over 3.00.

If and when it gets acceptance in the US it will go even higher.

The extra kicker is the ADS which also can be a huge success on its own and does not require the same approval routine as a drug. The applications for drug control and delivery are of interest to governments.

There is lots more to this share both pro and con, but this gives a brief introduction to those who do not know of the company.

transense technologies (trt) on a roll with little or no news.