< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

That's why I asked if jkd was day trading Bb. If confident the sp will recover in the short term, why sell at a loss? Very interested to know why you sold jkd. No critisism intended, just interested to know how your strategy differs from mine.

no answer came the reply.,.

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) forecasts that the Organization of Exporting Petroleum Countries will need to increase oil supply by an additional million barrels of oil per day in order to balance supply and demand in oil markets, a BP executive said Tuesday.

"Based on our analysis of the short-term balance for supply and demand in the world and if Libya supply remains offline, we think to calibrate supply and demand will require roughly an additional million barrels per day of OPEC supply," said Mark Finley, BP's general manager for global energy markets. He was presenting the U.K. oil major's annual Statistical Review of World Energy at Rice University in Houston.

Finley said the steep discount at which West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange trade compared to European benchmark Brent is purely a physical problem that will be fixed once a glut of oil in the country's main storage facility in Cushing, Okla. is solved. He said BP projects the differential between both benchmarks is likely to narrow but that it is hard to predict if that will mean WTI prices will increase or if Brent prices will fall.

The split between U.S. WTI prices and prices throughout the energy chain is unusual because typically WTI and Brent are within about $1 per barrel of each other. But in recent months, the two have veered wildly, with the gap between them growing to more than $20 per barrel.

Light, sweet crude oil for July delivery, which expired at the settlement, settled Tuesday at $93.40 a barrel, up 14 cents from a day earlier. ICE August Brent crude settled down 74 cents, at $110.95 a barrel, the lowest price since May 23. The Brent premium to the Nymex contract was $17.55 a barrel.

BP also forecasts that the disconnect between natural-gas prices in the U.S. and international markets will be corrected in the future due to market forces. "Certainly we can see correcting forces working," Finley said.

Those correcting mechanisms could take the form of more domestic demand, less domestic supply, or exports of natural gas from the U.S. into global markets. "We will have to wait and see, but we can say with confidence that the differential should structurally narrow over time," Finley said.

"A U.S. natural gas price that is very cheap compared to oil and to international gas prices is already driving responses in both the supply and demand side," he added.

Natural-gas prices in the U.S. have remained depressed, trading at about $4 per million British Thermal units due to an overabundance of supply, while natural gas prices abroad have been trading higher.



-By Isabel Ordonez

--Daniel Strumpf in New York contributed to this report.

Think he's gone to ground harry.,.

not at all Bb, if it is i to whom you refer.
i am very much above ground.never failing to admit when i am wrong, and i may have been here,
i had my reasons.but small losses are just but one of them.
regards to you all
jkd

Back up to 160p would be good. I think it is worth trading some of these while the markets are so sluggish.

HC
nice few days price movement. shame im not holding but thats how it goes sometimes.
cant win em all as they say.this one got away from me for various reasons.
luckily others didnt so im not too upset or disappointed.
good luck to you
regards
jkd

oh......and not me???

Worth buying for another bounce imo.

not yet... 140p would be a better bet.

Agree hlyeo.

I bow to your judgement. I thought the 200 DMA may provide support.

I'm with you harry, would be surprised if it went as low as 140p.,.

Not an impressive update today, revenue down, delays and downtime... so below 140p very likely.

Update seem's ok to me

Highlights

u Reservoir performance at Ebok and Okoro at upper end of expectations

u Average full year daily production revised to 25,000 to 30,000 boepd due to non reservoir related facilities downtime; on track for 50,000 boepd 2011 exit rate

u Strong financial position - first half revenue US$161 million; cash at bank US$320 million and net debt US$344 million

u First half capital expenditure US$254 million, with forecast full year expenditure at US$450 million

u Active exploration programme with nine wells planned targeting over 600 mmboe net to Afren

u Continue to prioritise value accretive acquisitions



Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc commented:

"During the period, reservoir performance on the Ebok and Okoro fields has come in at the upper end of expectations. While we have revised the 2011 average production guidance, due to non reservoir related facilities downtime and simultaneous operations, we are expecting a 2011 exit rate of 50,000 boepd. Looking forward, we are targeting both organic and inorganic reserves growth, with up to nine exploration wells targeting over 600 million barrels net to Afren in H2 2011 and further value accretive acquisitions."

Will add full RNS to the header.

The market seems to agree with you hlyeo. Down 3% at one point this morning.

Realistic post from someone who'sv/heavily invested in AFR.


hmm, ok, down from target 40,k boepd avg over to 2011 to 25/30k boepd net over 2011.

lets take 27.5k net boepd to afren avg over 2011:

27500bopd * $100/b * 330 up days = $907.5m turnover (40k was ~$1.25/30billion)

say, ~20% of turnover being = to net profit after tax = $181.5m net profits (40k production woudl have been nearing ~$290m/$300m)

eps earnings per share: 986m shs / $181.5m = 18.4cents : at 1.6 ex rate = 11.5p ($290m would have been ~19p eps)

weve always gone on basis of the 2p's (reserves) being worth ~170p or so, and earnings being a driver, but this is not a particularly good bit of news today, its putting us at 115p on ten times earnings, and at 15* earnings = 172.5p (15 times being a bit on the high side imho)

looks like we are a bit more dependant on Keta now, given that weve just taken a significant hit on earnings, and future explo in east africa.,

well done afren. not.

however, 2012 looks now, to be the year for afrenn, as they have basically fked up 2011 on a production basis.

roll on keta etc etc :-)

BUT holding steady....H98's short not doing well.,.

why have they fucked up on production???