< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Agree hlyeo.

I bow to your judgement. I thought the 200 DMA may provide support.

I'm with you harry, would be surprised if it went as low as 140p.,.

Not an impressive update today, revenue down, delays and downtime... so below 140p very likely.

Update seem's ok to me

Highlights

u Reservoir performance at Ebok and Okoro at upper end of expectations

u Average full year daily production revised to 25,000 to 30,000 boepd due to non reservoir related facilities downtime; on track for 50,000 boepd 2011 exit rate

u Strong financial position - first half revenue US$161 million; cash at bank US$320 million and net debt US$344 million

u First half capital expenditure US$254 million, with forecast full year expenditure at US$450 million

u Active exploration programme with nine wells planned targeting over 600 mmboe net to Afren

u Continue to prioritise value accretive acquisitions



Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc commented:

"During the period, reservoir performance on the Ebok and Okoro fields has come in at the upper end of expectations. While we have revised the 2011 average production guidance, due to non reservoir related facilities downtime and simultaneous operations, we are expecting a 2011 exit rate of 50,000 boepd. Looking forward, we are targeting both organic and inorganic reserves growth, with up to nine exploration wells targeting over 600 million barrels net to Afren in H2 2011 and further value accretive acquisitions."

Will add full RNS to the header.

The market seems to agree with you hlyeo. Down 3% at one point this morning.

Realistic post from someone who'sv/heavily invested in AFR.


hmm, ok, down from target 40,k boepd avg over to 2011 to 25/30k boepd net over 2011.

lets take 27.5k net boepd to afren avg over 2011:

27500bopd * $100/b * 330 up days = $907.5m turnover (40k was ~$1.25/30billion)

say, ~20% of turnover being = to net profit after tax = $181.5m net profits (40k production woudl have been nearing ~$290m/$300m)

eps earnings per share: 986m shs / $181.5m = 18.4cents : at 1.6 ex rate = 11.5p ($290m would have been ~19p eps)

weve always gone on basis of the 2p's (reserves) being worth ~170p or so, and earnings being a driver, but this is not a particularly good bit of news today, its putting us at 115p on ten times earnings, and at 15* earnings = 172.5p (15 times being a bit on the high side imho)

looks like we are a bit more dependant on Keta now, given that weve just taken a significant hit on earnings, and future explo in east africa.,

well done afren. not.

however, 2012 looks now, to be the year for afrenn, as they have basically fked up 2011 on a production basis.

roll on keta etc etc :-)

BUT holding steady....H98's short not doing well.,.

why have they fucked up on production???

TLW- price 1278p market cap $11.38bn shares in issue 890mln. production 58kbpd
DGO- price 535p market cap $2.75 bn shares in issue 511mln. production 55kbpd
AFR- price 147p market cap $1.47bn shares in issue 985mln. production if up to 35kbpd

afren wont stay for long with market cap at $1.47bn!!! afren will trade between 250p-300p by the end of the year. if market are stable, meaning no crashes and recession.
if afr hits 50kbpd it will trade well above 300p.

i like say well done afr.

If this news was already priced into the market shock horror, then my take would be next six months stuck in a trading range if it can stay above 200DMA. Not jumping back in yet, watching.

not saying you're wrong, but sp has not fallen below 200 dma since about may 2010, and then it was only briefly ....... with some caveats, this does not look to be a bad time to take at least a modest stake assuming you concur that there is plenty of upside within say the next 12 months

Cynic - Absolutely, but plenty of scope to trade between 150.0 - 173 if that is the case.

M/caps are more to do with reserves than production(well life),while AFR have great potential as yet it is still just that?The market is interested in proven(P2)reserves so until such time,we are stuck in the present trend?
aimho

150.60 bid , all going to plan minus a few unexpected minor problems which you would expect with this of type company.

Keeping mine........

Me too.:)

and me too.

sp has been range bound since january today's RNS does not encourage a move upwards.