cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
Shortie
- 05 Dec 2014 14:50
- 16829 of 21973
Should have stayed long on the DAX yesterday!! doah..
Claret Dragon
- 05 Dec 2014 20:22
- 16830 of 21973
Another new high on Dow.
cynic
- 06 Dec 2014 08:38
- 16831 of 21973
but it is or should be a considerable concern that germany's economy is faltering badly, russia is now a basket case and ....
"Mutiny at ECB after challenge to Draghi ..... facing fgull-blown leadership-crisis ..... powerful implications for for financial markets and the long-trerm fate of monetary union ...."
there's quite a lot more - today's fascist gazette
Stan
- 06 Dec 2014 09:46
- 16832 of 21973
"there's quite a lot more - today's fascist gazette" there are so many of them to choose from, but do I assume that your mean the Daily Mail?
Stan
- 06 Dec 2014 11:55
- 16833 of 21973
Alf?.. Answer the question -):
Chris Carson
- 06 Dec 2014 15:10
- 16834 of 21973
Any chance of keeping all things political on the Communists rule /Talk to yourself thread chaps, enough shite on there for everybody to endure. I seem to recall even though free, MAM is a Financial Bulletin Board. Anyone who agrees say AYE!
cynic
- 06 Dec 2014 15:15
- 16835 of 21973
been playing golf stan .... telegraph of course
CC - a very strange comment indeed from you
Chris Carson
- 06 Dec 2014 15:18
- 16836 of 21973
Why cynic? I don't post political nonsense on here.
cynic
- 06 Dec 2014 15:28
- 16837 of 21973
it just seemed a bit random and unwarranted
Chris Carson
- 06 Dec 2014 15:36
- 16838 of 21973
I was in a good mood till i foolishly read the Talk to yourself thread. So when I looked at this thread hoping for some inspiration re direction of said indices, just saddened me that the word fascist and newspapers should be a topic currently in discussion. :o)
cynic
- 06 Dec 2014 15:37
- 16839 of 21973
perhaps try reading the post (16831) to which it attached then :-)
Stan
- 06 Dec 2014 15:57
- 16840 of 21973
Found the Torygraph usually V.G. on Finance and Sport, Predictably bias on behalf of right wing politics though.
Chris Carson
- 07 Dec 2014 10:52
- 16841 of 21973
Uncertain times present a great chance to buy British
The market's reaction to last week's Autumn Statement suggested politics might be a significant influence on the UK market for the next six months, writes Tom Stevenson
By Tom Stevenson3:14PM GMT 06 Dec 2014 Comments2 Comments
Investors sometimes dismiss Autumn Statements with a shrug.
In an increasingly global stock market, fiddling around the edges of the domestic economy can seem neither here nor there. The market’s reaction to last week’s pre-election package of measures was notable, therefore. It suggested that politics might be a significant influence on the UK market for the next six months.
George Osborne is the most political of Chancellors. It would take more than a persistently disappointing budget deficit to stop him pulling a few pre-poll rabbits out of his hat. His populist moves on stamp duty and air passenger tax and a renewed round of banker bashing were sufficiently unexpected to cause big divergences in sector performance as he spoke.
The simplification of stamp duty was reflected in jumps of as much as 3.5pc in the share prices of housebuilders and online estate agents. easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG both popped higher in anticipation of cheaper flights for children. The banks sagged as the Chancellor cut their ability to use losses they built during the financial crisis to offset profits for tax purposes.
Many of the fund managers I speak to are quietly concerned about the short-term outlook for UK shares, even if they think the impact won’t last long. Some believe the uncertainty might create good opportunities to invest in a market which is now one of the cheaper destinations in the developed world. Richard Buxton, the Old Mutual star manager, told me that he expects a “year of two halves”, with his portfolio positioned for a decent rally once the uncertainty of the election is out of the way.
The manner in which investors responded to sector-specific news last Wednesday suggests, however, that as the election approaches investors may become increasingly exercised about the wide range of unpredictable outcomes. As well as the risks for particular industries, the possibility of the election leading to a vote on EU membership introduces more uncertainty.
The Government has pledged to stage a referendum in 2017 if it is re-elected. It’s just one factor among many in a peculiarly unpredictable election. Other wild cards include the impact of pension changes in April, which offer the prospect of a small army of grey voters enjoying unexpected cash in their pockets thanks to the new freedom to dip into their pension pots.
The Scottish referendum demonstrated how investors can ignore even a well-understood, scheduled event until it is imminent. Markets are myopic and volatility might not increase until a month or two before the vote.
It all rather depends what else is going on in the world and the extent to which, election or no, London is perceived to be a relative safe haven. Having underperformed on the back of the FTSE 100’s exposure to the recent commodity rout, some of the uncertainty will have been priced in.
It’s often said that markets hate uncertainty but I’m not sure there’s much empirical evidence for that. The counter argument that weak governments without a real mandate for change are less able to cause any damage to the economy carries some weight.
It is true that the performance of markets experiencing political uncertainty this year, such as Brazil, was inferior to those where the outcome of elections was predictable and positive, such as India. But it is equally the case that Belgium, which survived without a government for nearly two years after its 2010 election and has a four-way coalition, outperformed the other eurozone stock markets before and after the vote.
The UK market has underperformed other markets, notably the US, in the past couple of years, moving sideways in 2014 while Wall Street has hit new records. That’s mainly because of our weighting towards mining and oil shares and their exposure to the technology shares that are leading the rally.
Dividend yields are running at about twice those in the US market, with more than a quarter of FTSE 100 stocks paying more than 4pc when I last looked. The home market is cheaper than the US, Japan and Europe.
With the Government seeing red lights flashing on the global economy’s dashboard and the Bank of England’s Mark Carney fretting about “huge disinflationary forces”, there is little prospect of UK interest rates rising for most if not all of next year. Any pre-election volatility will be a good opportunity to buy British.
Tom Stevenson is investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment. The views expressed are his own.
cynic
- 07 Dec 2014 13:47
- 16842 of 21973
yet another caveat for the markets
Bank for International Settlements sounds alarm over dollar
Global financial policy makers have sounded the alarm about the impact of a resurgent US dollar on emerging markets, where companies have racked up large debts denominated in the American currency.
Shortie
- 08 Dec 2014 15:49
- 16843 of 21973
10033 short on the DAX
skinny
- 08 Dec 2014 16:19
- 16844 of 21973
18,000 today?
cynic
- 08 Dec 2014 16:37
- 16845 of 21973
not tonight josephine, i think ..... indeed, and as shortie commented the other day, dow really is looking horribly o'bought even if it chooses to ignore it for now
Shortie
- 08 Dec 2014 17:10
- 16846 of 21973
I wouldn't listen me though, I trade most days on the fabric of my underwear!!
cynic
- 08 Dec 2014 17:15
- 16847 of 21973
so long as it's been worn for less than 5 days!
cynic
- 08 Dec 2014 17:17
- 16848 of 21973
and while we were gibbering, dow has suddenly spiked down 60 points
any reason known?