rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Uncertain times present a great chance to buy British
The market's reaction to last week's Autumn Statement suggested politics might be a significant influence on the UK market for the next six months, writes Tom Stevenson

By Tom Stevenson3:14PM GMT 06 Dec 2014 Comments2 Comments
Investors sometimes dismiss Autumn Statements with a shrug.
In an increasingly global stock market, fiddling around the edges of the domestic economy can seem neither here nor there. The market’s reaction to last week’s pre-election package of measures was notable, therefore. It suggested that politics might be a significant influence on the UK market for the next six months.
George Osborne is the most political of Chancellors. It would take more than a persistently disappointing budget deficit to stop him pulling a few pre-poll rabbits out of his hat. His populist moves on stamp duty and air passenger tax and a renewed round of banker bashing were sufficiently unexpected to cause big divergences in sector performance as he spoke.
The simplification of stamp duty was reflected in jumps of as much as 3.5pc in the share prices of housebuilders and online estate agents. easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG both popped higher in anticipation of cheaper flights for children. The banks sagged as the Chancellor cut their ability to use losses they built during the financial crisis to offset profits for tax purposes.
Many of the fund managers I speak to are quietly concerned about the short-term outlook for UK shares, even if they think the impact won’t last long. Some believe the uncertainty might create good opportunities to invest in a market which is now one of the cheaper destinations in the developed world. Richard Buxton, the Old Mutual star manager, told me that he expects a “year of two halves”, with his portfolio positioned for a decent rally once the uncertainty of the election is out of the way.



The manner in which investors responded to sector-specific news last Wednesday suggests, however, that as the election approaches investors may become increasingly exercised about the wide range of unpredictable outcomes. As well as the risks for particular industries, the possibility of the election leading to a vote on EU membership introduces more uncertainty.
The Government has pledged to stage a referendum in 2017 if it is re-elected. It’s just one factor among many in a peculiarly unpredictable election. Other wild cards include the impact of pension changes in April, which offer the prospect of a small army of grey voters enjoying unexpected cash in their pockets thanks to the new freedom to dip into their pension pots.
The Scottish referendum demonstrated how investors can ignore even a well-understood, scheduled event until it is imminent. Markets are myopic and volatility might not increase until a month or two before the vote.
It all rather depends what else is going on in the world and the extent to which, election or no, London is perceived to be a relative safe haven. Having underperformed on the back of the FTSE 100’s exposure to the recent commodity rout, some of the uncertainty will have been priced in.
It’s often said that markets hate uncertainty but I’m not sure there’s much empirical evidence for that. The counter argument that weak governments without a real mandate for change are less able to cause any damage to the economy carries some weight.
It is true that the performance of markets experiencing political uncertainty this year, such as Brazil, was inferior to those where the outcome of elections was predictable and positive, such as India. But it is equally the case that Belgium, which survived without a government for nearly two years after its 2010 election and has a four-way coalition, outperformed the other eurozone stock markets before and after the vote.
The UK market has underperformed other markets, notably the US, in the past couple of years, moving sideways in 2014 while Wall Street has hit new records. That’s mainly because of our weighting towards mining and oil shares and their exposure to the technology shares that are leading the rally.



Dividend yields are running at about twice those in the US market, with more than a quarter of FTSE 100 stocks paying more than 4pc when I last looked. The home market is cheaper than the US, Japan and Europe.
With the Government seeing red lights flashing on the global economy’s dashboard and the Bank of England’s Mark Carney fretting about “huge disinflationary forces”, there is little prospect of UK interest rates rising for most if not all of next year. Any pre-election volatility will be a good opportunity to buy British.
Tom Stevenson is investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment. The views expressed are his own.

yet another caveat for the markets

Bank for International Settlements sounds alarm over dollar
Global financial policy makers have sounded the alarm about the impact of a resurgent US dollar on emerging markets, where companies have racked up large debts denominated in the American currency.

10033 short on the DAX

18,000 today?

not tonight josephine, i think ..... indeed, and as shortie commented the other day, dow really is looking horribly o'bought even if it chooses to ignore it for now

I wouldn't listen me though, I trade most days on the fabric of my underwear!!

so long as it's been worn for less than 5 days!

and while we were gibbering, dow has suddenly spiked down 60 points
any reason known?

Its just more of the same old to be honest, the DOW's overbought and data is soft so there will be slips until someone commits to stimulus... Eyes are on the ECB but China and Japan could do more to stoke growth... Lets face it though, politicians are so hell bent on growth they don't understand that following growth an economy will naturally take some time to consolidate and settle... The same as a company, that hits market saturation and those super earnings level off... Nothing to worry about but ultimately if earnings slow down as a course of saturation then it'll drive both prices and inflation down just as we're seeing... simples to anyone not fixated on growth!!

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. and European stocks fell on
Monday after weak Chinese and Japanese data stoked worries about
slowing global economic growth, while oil prices sank to
five-year lows on expectations of oversupply into 2015.
The euro sagged to 2-1/2-year lows against the dollar after
European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny's warned of a
"massive weakening" of the euro zone economy and said the
purchase of state bonds could provide a boost. His comments came
just days after Standard and Poor's downgraded its credit rating
on Italy, the bloc's third largest economy, to a level just
above junk status.
Nowotny's remarks raised bets in the bond market for a fresh
round of ECB stimulus in the first quarter of 2015.
ID:nR1N0RP01W
Data out of Asia also took a toll on sentiment. Japan
reported its third-quarter economic contraction was deeper than
previously thought, while China's unexpectedly weak import data
signaled slowing demand in the world's second biggest economy.
ID:nL3N0TM2GJ ID:nL3N0TS2FK
The disappointing economic developments abroad overshadowed
Friday's robust U.S. jobs report, which revived bets the Federal
Reserve might consider ending its near-zero interest rate policy
in mid-2015. ID:nL2N0TO1V4
Even so, Wall Street stocks proved to be fairly resilient.
"The other side of it, too, is many of these other countries
are taking some efforts to stimulate as well. People are looking
at is as temporary, and somewhere down the line as those
economies get stronger, everybody will be in pretty good shape,"
said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook
Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois
In early U.S. trading, the Dow Jones industrial average
.DJI fell 5.52 points, or 0.03 percent, to 17,953.27, the S&P
500 .SPX slipped 0.88 point, or 0.04 percent, to 2,074.49, and
the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC shed 9.00 points, or 0.19 percent,
to 4,789.75. .N \
The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 fell 0.6 percent to 1,396.79,
while Toyko's Nikkei .N225 eked out a 0.08 percent gain. .EU
.T
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks
shares in 45 nations, fell 1.21 points, or 0.28 percent, to
423.54.
In the currency market, the euro fell to a more than
2-1/2-year low against the greenback at $1.2247 before
rebounding to $1.2292 in U.S. trading EUR= .
The dollar also retreated against the yen and other major
currencies as traders booked some profits on the greenback's
recent gains linked to expectations the Federal Reserve might
raise interest rates sooner in 2015 than had been expected.
The dollar was down 0.5 percent at 120.80 yen JPY= .
Bets on a fresh round of ECB stimulus in the first quarter
of 2015 helped boost the prices of U.S. and German government
bonds. Benchmark 10-year U.S. yields fell 2.29 percent
US10YT=RR and 10-year Bund yields declined to 0.72 percent
DE10YT=RR . US/ GVD/EUR
In the energy market, Brent crude LCOc1 fell more than $2
a barrel to a five-year low of $66.35 on predictions that
oversupply would keep building until next year after OPEC
decided not to cut output. O/R
Spot gold prices XAU= edged up 0.07 percent at $1,192.44
an ounce on some safe-haven demand on the modest losses in U.S.
and European equity prices.

had a little short dabble on dow (16898) and put limit on as well as stop, and limit hit for 50 points while i was cooking .... nice start to the evening :-)

============

i see the support at 17815 kicked in though i missed it
now what?

I hope you meant 17898!

wouldn't have minded had i hit the limit at 50 below :-)

still holding old dow shorts that are still comfortably horrid(!) but much less so than they were :-)

Well my DAX short at 10033 is nicely in the money, no need to take any action I feel as if momentum builds I'll be onto an even bigger winner.

Dax closed 9945 as back within support tolerance... +88

what news that caused cash dow to spike down heavily once more?
i think there's a support at this new level (17730), but can't recollect where the next target below lies

No doubt the slump in crude and energy stocks have caused the fall. Sold too early on the DAX but a nice hefty profit all the same. Note today's Aluminium and Zinc prices on the London Metals exchange, united-co-rusal-results

and suddenly dumped another 40 points to +/-17700

Just setting up for the Santa rally late next week?

I do hope so, give me volatile any day of the week..!