< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

The market seems to agree with you hlyeo. Down 3% at one point this morning.

Realistic post from someone who'sv/heavily invested in AFR.


hmm, ok, down from target 40,k boepd avg over to 2011 to 25/30k boepd net over 2011.

lets take 27.5k net boepd to afren avg over 2011:

27500bopd * $100/b * 330 up days = $907.5m turnover (40k was ~$1.25/30billion)

say, ~20% of turnover being = to net profit after tax = $181.5m net profits (40k production woudl have been nearing ~$290m/$300m)

eps earnings per share: 986m shs / $181.5m = 18.4cents : at 1.6 ex rate = 11.5p ($290m would have been ~19p eps)

weve always gone on basis of the 2p's (reserves) being worth ~170p or so, and earnings being a driver, but this is not a particularly good bit of news today, its putting us at 115p on ten times earnings, and at 15* earnings = 172.5p (15 times being a bit on the high side imho)

looks like we are a bit more dependant on Keta now, given that weve just taken a significant hit on earnings, and future explo in east africa.,

well done afren. not.

however, 2012 looks now, to be the year for afrenn, as they have basically fked up 2011 on a production basis.

roll on keta etc etc :-)

BUT holding steady....H98's short not doing well.,.

why have they fucked up on production???

TLW- price 1278p market cap $11.38bn shares in issue 890mln. production 58kbpd
DGO- price 535p market cap $2.75 bn shares in issue 511mln. production 55kbpd
AFR- price 147p market cap $1.47bn shares in issue 985mln. production if up to 35kbpd

afren wont stay for long with market cap at $1.47bn!!! afren will trade between 250p-300p by the end of the year. if market are stable, meaning no crashes and recession.
if afr hits 50kbpd it will trade well above 300p.

i like say well done afr.

If this news was already priced into the market shock horror, then my take would be next six months stuck in a trading range if it can stay above 200DMA. Not jumping back in yet, watching.

not saying you're wrong, but sp has not fallen below 200 dma since about may 2010, and then it was only briefly ....... with some caveats, this does not look to be a bad time to take at least a modest stake assuming you concur that there is plenty of upside within say the next 12 months

Cynic - Absolutely, but plenty of scope to trade between 150.0 - 173 if that is the case.

M/caps are more to do with reserves than production(well life),while AFR have great potential as yet it is still just that?The market is interested in proven(P2)reserves so until such time,we are stuck in the present trend?
aimho

150.60 bid , all going to plan minus a few unexpected minor problems which you would expect with this of type company.

Keeping mine........

Me too.:)

and me too.

sp has been range bound since january today's RNS does not encourage a move upwards.

Afren (AFR LN) HOLD
TP: 155, SP: 150p, Mkt cap: 1,477m
Trading statement: 2011 expected production target cut by 25%-plus
Afren has cut its forecast for 2011 production from 40,000 boed to 25-30,000 boed due to non-reservoir related problems. The mature Okoro field has suffered due to debottlenecking and concomitant production suspension, while the Ebok field production rates have been impacted by the late start up and a slew of development problems/delays, which the company says are not reservoir related.
These are the two key value elements for the company. Provided production can get back on track for 2012 (exit 2011 is expected to be 50,000 boed), then there should be only a small impact on our valuation. However, the scale of the miss‟ for 2011 does raise questions about the achievability of the original forecast, which was confirmed only two months ago.
Afren does have an enticing exploration drilling campaign, centred on the delayed Keta well in Ghana and East African drilling (Tanzania and Kenya). Much of this looks to be in Q4, and we would not be surprised to see some of it slip to 2012. For now, then, we maintain our HOLD rating, but we would expect to see a negative market reaction to the 2011 production forecast.
Charlie Sharp
+44 20 3206 7180
charlie.sharp@matrixgroup.co.uk


Not great ,but i'm looking at next year ,this is still a hold for me.

I reckon no 140p hombre.,.

Dougie Youngson, analyst at Arbuthnot, says Afrens (LON:AFR) production down grade is not surprising given that Ebok, where there was a delay in start-up during first half, is in that tricky tinkering phase which all fields have at the beginning.

Youngson continues to rate Afren a strong buy, with a target price of 209p.

He says key reasons to plump for Afren include strong production growth; a healthy pipeline of potential acquisitions (which he expects to see action on during the 2011 year); and an East African exploration portfolio that has huge upside potential.

Youngson expects the market to focus on the production downgrade today. But he is sticking to his guns: Afren continues to be our top pick on the main board. It has a strong long term investment case, with a major uplift in production this year, acquisition growth and potentially some interesting exploration in East Africa.

Chart trend is showing a downtrend... soon it will be below 140p

your reading it up side down

We will see in a few weeks' time.