I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

Malone makes homecoming plans

Legendary deal-maker is turning his focus back on US

David Teather in New York and John Cassy
Tuesday March 25, 2003
The Guardian

Behind (almost) every powerful media mogul is another powerful media mogul - and his name is John Malone. In the UK he is best known as a major shareholder in Telewest and a possible kingmaker in a merger between the cable group and rival NTL. However, he is beating a retreat from a European cable industry that buckled under multi-billion pound debts last year and is refocusing on the US, where he is expected to wield his legendary deal-making skills in a looming round of consolidation in the media sector.

The future ownership of satellite broadcaster DirecTV and Vivendi Universal's entertainment assets is rarely discussed without John Malone's name being mentioned. The publicity-shy Mr Malone is one of the most prolific investors in the industry. Through his Liberty Media company he holds 18% of Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, 4% of AOL Time Warner, 3% of Vivendi Universal and 20% of Barry Diller's USA Interactive. But recent moves by the billionaire tycoon, despite setbacks in Europe, suggest he is once again as interested in the mundane business of owning and operating assets as he is in being a financial engineer.

Last week he announced plans to raise $1.5bn (960m) by effectively mortgaging his AOL stake, raising expectations that he might seek greater control over some of his investments or launch a bid for assets that have been up for sale by debt-laden media groups.

The holder of a doctorate in mathematical modelling, he is also well known for the bewildering complexity of his deals. Liberty Media, spun out of telecoms group AT&T in August 2001, is the fourth version of the business. It has twice been a tracking stock since being created in a rights issue by Mr Malone's Tele-Communications Inc in 1991 (and then reacquired by TCI in 1994).

Mr Malone, 62, was one of the first pioneers of the cable industry, setting up TCI in 1973 before selling it with astute timing in March 1999 to AT&T for $54bn. During that time he earned the sobriquet Darth Vader for his ruthless negotiating. He has also been described as an "inscrutable hard-ass".

Liberty has been linked to a possible bid for the US film and television assets of Vivendi Universal alongside Mr Diller, who stepped down as chief executive of Vivendi's entertainment arm last week. It is also preparing a bid for Hughes Electronics, parent of DirecTV. A bid would set Mr Malone in direct competition with News Corporation, which could make an offer as soon as this week, according to reports.

Mr Malone, who owns the Starz Encore and Discovery cable networks, wants DirecTV for much the same reason as Mr Murdoch. Cable channel owners need their own distribution networks to use as a strategic weapon against other cable or satellite firms.

Reorganising


Earlier this month Liberty triggered a clause that will reorganise its interests in QVC, the home shopping channel. Liberty has given its partner in the channel, cable company Comcast, notice that it either wants out of the venture or full ownership. Liberty could sell its share to Comcast for around $6bn, a sum it could add to its war chest. It already has around $10bn in cash and non-core assets that it could easily muster.

Alternatively, Liberty could take full ownership of QVC at a time when valuations are depressed and Comcast is under pressure to reduce its debts - a typically opportunistic strike by a wily investor. The shift in strategy appears to be driven by Liberty's flagging share price. The company is trading at a steep discount to the shares in its portfolio. Analysts also believe that owning operating businesses will make the company a more attractive investment.

Shares in Liberty have lost roughly a third of their value in the past 12 months. But there are also tax reasons for wanting to bulk up. Companies with more than 40% of their assets in investment securities need to register as an investment firm, making them subject to tighter restrictions and higher taxes.

Liberty is refocused on the US after a frustrating foray into the European cable industry that has dulled some of the edge of Mr Malone's reputation. That perhaps won't disappoint Mr Malone too much - he lives on a ranch in Colorado, hates flying and rarely travels outside the US. Liberty's head office in a suburb of Denver is far from the media hubs of New York and Los Angeles, let alone London.

An attempt to bludgeon his way into the German market was prevented by regulators while his investments in cable companies in Britain and the Netherlands have turned sour. Amsterdam-based UPC, the largest cable company in Europe, is going through a financial restructuring that will leave Mr Malone with a 50% share.

"When we were first looking at Europe the pie was quite big; unfortunately it isn't anymore," said Mike Erickson, head of investor relations at Liberty. "Fundamentally we're an opportunistic company and opportunities are now cropping up in the US that weren't there before." Mr Erickson said Hughes and the Vivendi assets were both "something we are looking at" ahead of what appears to be a busy year of deal-making.

In Britain Mr Malone attempted to drive a merger between Telewest and NTL but backed off after being sued by their respective bondholders. He is likely to emerge with 11% of Telewest after it too comes out of a financial restructuring. He could again make an attempt to dominate the British cable industry if the two attempt a merger next year. At that point a fresh injection of capital would be welcomed. "We'd evaluate that opportunity just like any other investment," Mr Erickson said. "If the price and future value-creation opportunity was right we might participate."

But there is another reason why Liberty might be cleaning up its balance sheet. Tidying the QVC relationship, buying operating businesses and cutting stakes in companies where it can not exert control could be a wise move in a post-Enron environment where transparency is a virtue.

The difficulty of understanding Liberty Media could be a further reason why the shareholders who were happy to climb aboard for the ride in the late 1990s, when fewer questions were asked, are now staying away.

Liberty Media's tentacles spread across the world. John Malone's business interests include:

Europe

Telewest, UK cable (of which he holds about11%)
Chorus Communications, Irish cable (50% holding)
The Wireless Group, UK radio (30%)
UPC, pan-Europe cable (50%)

US

Sprint, telecoms (20%)
AOL Time Warner (4%)
Viacom, cross-media group (an undisclosed percentage)
Vivendi Universal (3%)
News Corporation (18%)
Discovery Communications, owner of Discovery Channel (50%)
USA Interactive, e-commerce operation (20%)
QVC, shopping channel (42%)
Hughes Electronics, owner of DirecTV (under 1%)

Japan

Jupiter Programming, cable (50%)
Jupiter Telecommunications (36%)


South America

Sky Latin America, satellite (9%)
Cablevision, Argentina cable (39%)
Pramer, Argentina satellite (100%)

Why is it only ainsoph posting on this thread? Does anyone care?

What a way to speak of ains, he is head of TAG , that`s how much he cares,

TAG no longer exists & has not existed for about a month now!
This despite the need, more than ever, for a strong shareholder presence.

Unfortunately someone hacked into the server and the files were destroyed - apparently ACE never kept copies amnd therefore little if anything that can be done at this time. Ace has sold his stake but I still hold mine.



ains

FT


Liberty covets QVC shopping channel income
By Peter Thal Larsen in New York
Financial Times; Mar 26, 2003


Liberty Media yesterday suggested that it was mainly interested in taking control of QVC because of the home shopping channel's cashflow.

"We already own a large chunk of it and have the ability to shelter a large part of its income," Dob Bennett, Liberty's chief executive, said yesterday. "It would be valuable to us to have a large cash-producing asset."

John Malone, Liberty Media's chairman, earlier this month triggered a process that may give the company the chance to take control of QVC by buying out cable operator Comcast's 57 per cent shareholding in the business. Analysts believe QVC is worth $13bn-$14bn.

Mr Bennett stressed that Liberty would only take control of QVC at the right price. But he once again stressed that the company wanted to increase the proportion of assets in its portfolio that it controls.

"We want to have more operating businesses so we are able to access the cashflow that could support our debt and other activities," he said.

Aside from QVC, Liberty is also considering making an offer for DirecTV, although it remains unclear whether Mr Malone will bid alongside or against Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. It would also like to combine its Starz/Encore premium cable channels with Vivendi's US media operations.

Mr Bennett was speaking as Liberty reported a $5.3bn net loss for last year, mainly because of a $6bn write-down on the value of its public investments, which include stakes in AOL Time Warner and News Corp.

Mr Bennett said it was "hard to tell" whether Liberty would be able to find a single solution for its multiple disputes with Comcast.

Aside from the negotiation over QVC, the company is also locked in a legal battle with Comcast over the terms of a distribution deal for Starz on the cable operator's systems.

results tomorrow

Ains,

any idea / rumor / guess / thought / prediction etc. if there will be an announcement regards the restructure..

nothing of consequence ..... I would expect the customer spend to be good but wonder about the churn rate as they have been pushing prices up.

I would expect an update but nothing very new on D4E - I am stil holding and looking to buy back my ST trading shares but was hoping for 2.2 or less



ains

It will be interesting to see the churn rate. I believe they introducted a new credit checking process to stop bad payers. I guess we will see if this has had an impact.

This is true - you have to pay by card when you open an account - this has been very effective by all accounts


ains

Ains, What is L2 like for TWT. So are you not prepared to top up unless it hits 2.2? What's the likeihood if any of it shooting up tommorrow do you think? perhaps to 3p or are you thinking of less then positive news maybe hence falls to 2p or just above. Thanks.

stv .... I have a plan .... and stay with it .... made me lots so far on this share :-))

I think we could easily see 3p tomorrow omn the right figures and/or news

L2 is getting busier with 200k trades either side -probable manipulation



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 1 (50.00%) 200,000 2.40 - 2.50 200,000 (50.00%) 1 (50.00%)
5% (50.00%) 1 (50.00%) 200,000 2.40 - 2.50 200,000 (50.00%) 1 (50.00%)
10% (50.00%) 2 (62.50%) 400,000 2.35 - 2.52 240,000 (37.50%) 2 (50.00%)
15% (54.55%) 6 (42.46%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.67 1,382,533 (57.54%) 5 (45.45%)
50% (46.15%) 6 (39.82%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.68 1,541,533 (60.18%) 7 (53.85%)
100% (33.33%) 6 (36.73%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.71 1,757,233 (63.27%) 12 (66.67%)
all (31.58%) 6 (35.45%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.78 1,857,233 (64.55%) 13 (68.42%

Do you know what time the results are out and hence if +ve need to buy now right? Thanks.

I dont know timing - but could be they wait for US open ...... might buy a few later today if they did - 2.5p at this time

The results will be announced at 07:00 tomorrow - when the bond market opens.

When the last preliminary results were announced can you tell me the mkt reaction?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to that - things are a lot different now.

In my view the only 'real' thing that is going to move this price significantly upwards is confirmation of the agreement of the restructure plans.

What's L2 showing. Offer has moved up & hence I probably should not have kept waiting. Thanks Ains/Baldrick, too late for me now so hope can get in tommorrow @lower level.

last figures were on the 7th nov - and the shares lost against the opening price

vols picking up now and as always only a few peeps want to sell



ains