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ASOS: BUY AT LOW PRICE!!!! (ASC)     

wilco99 - 12 Sep 2003 15:52

ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=ASC&Si

WOODIE - 29 Nov 2005 07:47 - 1696 of 5941

not much in the results that was not in the market place not much headway in share price at the moment.

Kivver - 29 Nov 2005 12:20 - 1697 of 5941

Seems like investors have reacted to the very thing we new was going to happen, warehouse move would effect the results. we knew this before today so why sell today. might be a good time to back in 71p now.

bhunt1910 - 29 Nov 2005 12:46 - 1698 of 5941

Well I thought 80p was a fair price - this seems a bargain - especially with Xmas coming up and more and more people shopping over the Internet

Baza

wjordan - 29 Nov 2005 16:40 - 1699 of 5941

(from other board)

'Seymour Pierce Research Alert' - Just out:

Interim results:

Pre-tax loss for the 6 months to 30 September of 6,000 (profit 240,000) after adding back amortisation of goodwill, though including a one-off cost of 251,000 associated with the warehouse move. This is in line with internal forecasts. No dividend as expected.

Turnover advanced by 78% to 8.3m, with ASOS.com up 86% to 8.1m.

Gross margin at ASOS.com was 45%, with the company confident of reaching its target of 48% for the full year. Over the next 3 years the management team still believes a gross margin of 52% is achievable.

Despite increasing administrative expenses by almost double from 2.2m to 4.1m, ASOS still managed to remain broadly break-even for the first half.

This additional expense has gone on the new warehouse, which will support the projected strong sales growth for the next 3-5 years; as well as new buyers and merchandisers, increasing the level of newness the website offers and becoming more focused at buying into the latest trends.

Additionally, in each department new management has been brought in to assist in the development and to implement the control procedures the business requires.

The increase in its cost base, whilst impacting the first half of the current financial year, should lead to a much stronger and more responsive operation going forward. The warehousing issues (under capacity and multiple sites) of last year should not be repeated, whilst the new head office appointments will clarify its retail offer.

In the first half ASOS launched its new look website, with a separate beauty section as well as a menswear department. In addition, the new site offers vastly improved search capabilities, and this is being run off a new bespoke back office system ASOS designed internally.

The move to its new warehouse was successfully completed on time and to budget.

In terms of its retail offer, ASOS.com continues to attract more and more brands, with Boxfresh, Miss Sixty and Ugg already a part of its stable. In the coming months it will add new hot brands such as Citizens of Humanity jeans, True Religion jeans and Manoush.


The business continues to retain a good share of the online market, regaining second place for apparel in October as measured by Hitwise. The website attracted a record 1.4m unique visitors this month, whilst registered users have increased to 725,000, up from 419,000 a year ago.

Looking forward, the focus is now on maximising the investment the group has made in the first half.

First, with an enhanced buying and merchandising team, the management believes it can increase the amount of newness its site offers, bringing on new product much quicker and turning the stock faster. This fast fashion model has proved to be effective by other retail organisations such as Top Shop, H&M and Zara and we believe it will entice the customer base to react to its offer in a much more timely manner, as well as drive up basket order value.

ASOS plans to add up to 200 new lines per week, turning every 6-8 weeks, with the site holding a maximum of 1500 lines at any one time. This will allow the group to provide even hotter and faster celebrity fashion.

Secondly, further capex spend in the second half will focus on achieving operational efficiencies within its warehouse. The move to a new site has provided the group with the space to handle the spike in demand. Post Christmas 2005 the management will work hard to increase automation in its stock handling processes and to drive more efficiencies into its operation

Finally, ASOS will also focus on improving its margins, concentrating its supply chain and drive full margin sales.

With regard to current trading, for the 8 weeks to 27 November sales have increased by 58% on last year. This is a strong performance, particularly when considering the unfavourable weather conditions in October for apparel, and the performance seen by many of its high street rivals, but also when considering that last years comparatives are also high (up 83%).

As such, its top line growth remains above our full year estimate of 48%, and so we are increasing our forecast for sales. However, the investment in its infrastructure for future growth is also higher than we were looking for at this stage, and so we have kept our profit estimate broadly unchanged. Below is a summary of our forecast for the current year.


ASOS P&L estimate 05/06

Original Estimate (OE) New Estimate (NE)

ASOS.com Turnover: 19,100 (0E) - 21,010 (NE)

Group Turnover: 20,005 (OE) - 21,915 (NE)

ASOS.com Gross Profit : 9,168 (OE) - 10,075 (NE)

Group Gross Profit: 9,968 (OE) - 10,890 (NE)

Administrative & Dist Costs: 7,500 (OE) - 8,465 (NE)

One-off Costs: 300 (OE) - 251 (NE)

Operating Profit: 2,168 (OE) - 2,174 (NE)

For the following year, we have also raised our group turnover target from 24.5m to 28.1m, though again, with further investment in its business coming through, we have kept our profit forecast unchanged.

Overall, a solid set of numbers with ASOS remaining broadly at the break even position despite the investment and change occurring in the business. This puts the business in a strong position not only for the important second half (where trade has already started well), but also for the future.

ASOS has developed a strong position in the fast growing online market, with its pricing accurately pitched at a small discount (circa 10%) to Top Shop, its proposition of celebrity linked fashion and fashion brands attractive to its target audience, and a large installed customer base already in place.

These key attributes will help drive top line growth over the medium term, and we can easily see ASOS develop into a 50m plus turnover business within 3-4 years.

For the current year we look for 2.26m, whilst for the year after we continue to look for 3.06m. Despite its high current year rating of over 25x, with its strong market position and exceptional growth potential we retain our recommendation. BUY.

Year end March 2005A: Pre-tax (m) 1.11: Tax rate (%)0.0: EPS (p) 1.5: PER (x) 47.3: Net div (p) 0.0: Yield (%) 0.0.

2006E: 2.26 - 10.0 - 2.8 - 25.4 - 0.0 - 0.0.

2007E: 3.06 - 30.0 - 2.9 - 24.5 - 0.0 - 0.0.

WOODIE - 29 Nov 2005 16:47 - 1700 of 5941

wjordan thanks for that

Kivver - 02 Dec 2005 15:57 - 1701 of 5941

creeping back up, has a good opportunity been lost, i dont think so and lots more go but DYOR. 74p

ramu - 07 Dec 2005 10:43 - 1702 of 5941

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/sectors/22875/high-street-humbug-for-xmas.thtml

bhunt1910 - 12 Dec 2005 07:28 - 1703 of 5941

Asos is not having much luck - they may be insured - but its hit them at Xmas again

FOR RELEASE 7.00 am 12 December 2005




ASOS plc
('ASOS' or 'Group')
('A leading internet based fashion retailer')

Explosions at Buncefield Fuel Depot

ASOS plc, the online fashion retailer, has today confirmed that its warehouse at
Hemel Hempstead was damaged by the explosions that took place at the Buncefield
fuel depot on Sunday 11 December. The effect on ASOS and its delivery to
customers is still being assessed.

ASOS is fully insured both for stock loss and business interruption.

A further announcement with a fuller assessment will be made in due course.
For further information please contact:

jj50 - 12 Dec 2005 07:35 - 1704 of 5941

Directors have asked for suspension of shares.

Greyhound - 12 Dec 2005 08:00 - 1705 of 5941

Good job, otherwise this could tank.

bhunt1910 - 12 Dec 2005 09:48 - 1706 of 5941

Shares have definitely been suspended

ahoj - 12 Dec 2005 09:58 - 1707 of 5941

Can they get more than they've lost from their insurance? company

Greyhound - 12 Dec 2005 10:09 - 1708 of 5941

No they can't - insurance contracts can only make good but they do have "interruption loss". I don't know how close the warehouse is to the incident but I guess over the week we'll find out to what extent the warehouse is affected and what stock damage there is. Seems ironic that this time last year the shares suffered because of the inability to turn the stock round quick enough, now they have the warehouse but hit by other eventualities.

bhunt1910 - 12 Dec 2005 10:59 - 1709 of 5941

ASOS PLC
12 December 2005


ASOS plc ('ASOS' or the 'Company')

Holding in Company

ASOS was advised on 9 December 2005 that Fidelity International Limited, and its
direct and indirect subsidiaries, have acquired non-beneficial interests in a
further 680,000 ordinary shares in the Company and now hold a total of 8,044,359
ordinary shares, which represent approximately 11.21 per cent. of the entire
issued share capital of the Company.

Of the total shareholdings notified: 1,696,400 ordinary shares are held in the
name of Bank of New York Brussels; 600,000 ordinary shares are held in the name
of Northern Trust London; 534,000 are held in the name of Mellon Bank; 56,000
ordinary shares in the name of Clydesdale Bank plc; 395,500 are held in the name
of Citibank London; 242,800 ordinary shares are held in the name of State Str
Bank and Trust Company London; 3,316,359 ordinary shares are held in the name of
Brown Bros Harriman Ltd Lux; 153,600 ordinary shares are held in the name of
Brown Brothers Harriman and Co; and 1,049,700 ordinary shares are held in the
name of Bank of New York Europe London.

Treblewide - 12 Dec 2005 15:06 - 1710 of 5941

at christmas as well....this is bad bad bad

bhunt1910 - 12 Dec 2005 15:42 - 1711 of 5941

I guess a lot will depend on whether they had consequential loss insurance as well. Trouble is - if they use last years figures to estimate the revenue for this Xmas - they are going to struggle to justify any increase.

wjordan - 12 Dec 2005 17:36 - 1712 of 5941

At least they have trading figures up until Saturday to help estimate the revenue for the rest of Christmas. Only a few trading days left to estimate during christmas. The stock loss, including the orders coming in from manufacturers at the moment, getting all the logistics going again etc is the main problem. Overall I don't expect them to make all the losses back with insurance claims, but they should be up and running at full speed by February I would have thought.

ethel - 12 Dec 2005 19:26 - 1713 of 5941

They are going to have to borrow money in order to repair damages and get going again while the insurance company takes ages to assess damages.
This is a double whammy and I feel really sorry for the unhappiness that ASOS's loyal champions must be feeling right now.Not very nice to have to wait anxiously for the next RNS's.
Best of luck.
Ethel

hlyeo98 - 13 Dec 2005 21:36 - 1714 of 5941

Very unfortunate for ASOS to be burnt down just before the christmas buying spree...this will be a big setback for ASOS.

Dil - 13 Dec 2005 21:59 - 1715 of 5941

Bloody good shorting opportunity gone because they were allowed to suspend themselves.

What ever happened to the "free market" ?
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