Dear all,

In a moment of madness went long on MONI following Hammer on Friday on basis most beaten up stocks last to rally in extended bull run.

MONI has dropped from 1999/2000 high of 14.00 say or 1400p, FTSE Closed Friday 3952.60, reached high 6950.60 on 30th December 1999, Marconi Corporation starts 19th May 2003, presentations to analysts tomorrow 7th May 2003.

Approx 2003 low 1.13p, recent highs approx 2.50p

Hammer on Friday roughly 0.01p head ie very bullish 1.56p/1.55p with tail to 1.35p approx, needs to close above 1.50p/1.51p today IMHO to double hammer 1.55p/1.36p with high 1.58p, mid low 1.38p

On following logic I think MONI could go to 4.00p (3.98p) if break of 2.50p confirms

UKX C 02.05.2003 3952.60/6950.60 (UKX H 30.12.1999)x 1400p x 0.005 (0.50% post D4E)=3.98p



Views/opinions bull/bear please, I am long thinking could be biggest winner of May 2003 assuming the city are going to ramp the hell out of it when they own 99.50% of the company post D4E

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

LONDON (AFX) - Senior executives of troubled telecom equipment maker Marconi
PLC are set to go on a major charm offensive with investors on May 7 ahead of
the planned listing of Marconi Corp shares on May 19.
Marconi expects the UK and US courts to approve its huge debt rescheduling
plan in about 12 days time, enabling Marconi shares to start trading on May 19.
The company will tell investors that Marconi Corp's balance sheet bears
little resemblance to the old Marconi PLC.
As of Dec 31, 2002 Marconi Corp had net debt of 184 mln, gross debt of 788
mln and cash of 602 mln stg. Marconi PLC had net debt of some 3 bln stg and
gross debt of 4 bln.
Senior executives will also set out the strategy, products and services of
Marconi Corp.
Marconi's rescue plan, needed to avoid insolvency, involves a 4 bln stg
debt-for-equity swap with creditors, which will cede them 99.5 pct of the
company.
Under the terms of the proposed scheme creditors will also receive 340 mln
stg in cash. And as well as shares in the new company, to be renamed Marconi
Corp, they will also get a pro-rata share-out of loan notes.
tf/jc

Ash

the cash is irrelevant - it will all go to creditors at the swap

if anything, in squeezing areas like R&D what has that done to the company's long term prospects?

Dick,

Good points, however I am more interested in UK Investor sentiment, MONI looks cheap, the UKX DJIA and S & P are rocketing right now, and sooner or later that is bound to rub off on shares like Marconi that have fallen from 1400p to 1.25p lows and started to rise.

My kill zone is now to 19th May 2003, during which time I expect a run on the share price, after that who cares, although I would expect the 99.50% equity holders to be promoting the shareprice like crazy.

Cheers

Ash

I think the point is that by any fundamental analysis of moni and its markets it is so heavily over valued at 1.5p that a run is unlikely

still good luck and i admire (not literally) your balls

Hi Ash
I've been following your discussion with DD with interest. I am quite convinced that your stance re sentiment is valid. After all, the internet boom was totally based on sentiment and never had anything to do with fundamentals.

Whether the sentiment will be right for you with MONI I cannot say, but I wish you success if only for your courage.

[:-)

think I missed an anouncement somewhere - what exactly is the deal for existing shareholders under the restructuring - I did see that the creditors will own 99.x% or something, but then what?

Tia

shareholders get 0.5% of the new company

Ash

FYI - in the telegraph it said that the grey market for the new company had rsien from 25p to 40p valuing the new entity at 400m

looks like the penny is dropping

Dickdastardly,

Not at all, if MONI bounces above 1.35p it is a triple bottom which is even more bullish than ever from a ta perspective.

MONI has always been held above 1.13p which equates to US$50m at ROE US$1.58/1.00, so to me at any where round these levels with upside I think to 2.98p to 3.98p potentially, not less than 2.50p and downside of 0.22p at 1.35p to 1.13p versus upside arguably of 1.63p to 2.63p at this price not less than 1.15p, ie somewhere around 5.23 to 7.41 to 11.95 to 1.00 bulls will come in IMHO.

Cheers

Ash

aplogies ash

i didn't mean tht to refer to you but the market as a whole

if the new company is valued at 400m that makes the current cap far more than 0.5% of it

Dick,

So what, the equity right now to 19th May 2003 is 100% albeit with large debts but a much larger than expected cash balance of 1,161,000,000.

Banks holding 99.50% of equity are hardly likely to sit on their hands, plus I would think the new MONI is going to therefore be well supported.

MONI shareprice has been down for three years now after a ten year approx bull run to 1400p, 1.35p is a higher low than 1.13p, the trend is reversing with higher support and higher resistance 2.50p IMHO.

Looks more like a W bottom to me.

Cheers

Ash

give the current situation I personally think conventional technical analysis does not apply

neither fundamentals as at the end of the day you are only valuing 0.5% of any change in the company's trade

anyhow

Good Luck

Dick,

Well one thing is for sure until MONI breaks north of the 8 day EMA it is like watching paint dry.

Hoping MONI seemingly highly geared to a UKX move, follows a surge back on UKX.

Two biggish trades at close of 3m shares each 1.422p and 1.462p versus 1.38p/1.43p so someone seems to think so.

Cheers

Ash

Morning all,

Socks,

Watch out for those larger than normal trades today, DJIA held above the 8475.00 level in very narrow trading range of 40 points for 4 hours odd and UKX no doubt will rally above the 3943.00 level as a result (46.53% of 8477.36 DJIA L is 3944.50)

For MONI level above 1.35p/1.36p bid is critical in rally making above the 1.50p/1.51p neckline area.

Investor sentiment in the lead up to 16th May 2003 full moon next Friday is all important, am expecting bigger stocks to start to peak by then,hopefully then rolling down to much smaller plays like MONI eventually in the sub 50m market cap bracket which have not even started to move up yet from March market lows (MONI January/April lowest closing 1.35p/1.50p).

UKX L 12.03.2003 3277.50 H 07.05.2003 4038.50 plus 761.00 points.
DJIA L 12.03.2003 7397.31 H 07.05.2003 8641.22 plus 1243.91 points

Good luck today

Cheers

Ash

Socks,

At long last it seems to be rising from 1.35p lows reversal so far to 1.40p, needs to get over that 8 day EMA though.

Cheers

Ash

Socks,

Not one of my better calls, 1.30p low in place versus 1.13p in January and 1.35p closing in last 12 weeks.

Hope it bounces here.

Cheers

Ash

still holding ash?

seems to be heading for sub a penny



LONDON (AFX) - A High Court judge approved arrangements for saving the ailing telecoms equipment maker Marconi.
Justice Lindsay said the scheme of arrangements were designed to secure "more favourable" results for creditors than would be likely if the company went into administration.

He said: "In the circumstances and embodying some minor amendments I am ready to sanction the Corporation's scheme and the PLC's scheme."

The court approval marks the last stage in Marconi's 18 month struggle to agree refinancing terms with its creditors.

The rescue plan will see 4 bln stg of debt swapped for cash, loans and shares. The company is due to relist as Marconi Corp on May 19.

tf/jc

surely it is an easy short as you know the new shares will have far less market cap than the old ones?

can you short over the transfer date?

I don't knnow without asking .... you do have to factor in the question of warrants



ains

don't they require a market cap of 1.5bn?

if so Ithink they are to all intents worthless as that ascribes too much hope value