I've been collecting these shares on a off for the last 4 years! Origonally for the dividend, which used to be really good, still not bad as I carried on purchasing as the price dropping accordingly!

The shares went up 22% today - if I'm not carefully I could actually be showing a healthy profit on them!

PT .... whatever you do, don't short ICI ...... 3/4 page in Telegraph re Akzo tabling enhanced bid at +/-625 within next week (or so)

Cynic have no intention of opening a short position, as you say an enhanced bid of 620p+ amy well gap the SP up before the open tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how that fights the inevitable FTSE fall.

indeed .... but thought i would have a little fun and sport by making the chart fit the theory! ...... i am overweight in ICI, so i hope the silly buggers do not overplay their hand and scare away the suitor(s)

bearing in mind today's RNS, it must surely be a racing certainty that ICI's figures on thursday will be top drawer in order to justify the board's demand for a higher bid ...... question for holders and would be new investors is whether or not such an offer will be forthcoming from Akzo or another, and whether it will be significantly more than the 650 now on the table

with sp only at 621, it could be well-argued that this makes a decent gamble (sorry; investment!) ...... firstly, it is inconceivable that ICI's figures on thursday will not be good, thus justifying the claim that 650 is undervaluing ..... secondly, following those figures, Akzo may already have something extra in reserve to put on the table ..... thirdly, it is not inconceivable that a third party will step into the fray thus starting a bid battle as happened with Corus.

don't say this often, but "Told you so!" .... Akzo all set to bid 670, so reckon ICI at 650+ to allow for time-lag and residual undertainty, with still the outside chance that Dow or Dupont will through their hats in the ring at the last moment, as happened with Corus

Congratulations to Cynic from reading this post back from today - a very good call.

My query is that with an indicative 670p + possibly 5-8p dividend as well, even with the competition commission threat is the current 640 sp too bearish.

Buying now if the above offer pans out gives a 5% return after costs, which possibly might have to wait for 3-4 months, but that's not bad against possibly a rough 2nd half for the market generally.

Am I being overly optimistic?

no you're not though with sp now at 640 you may think of better places to invest .... as a holder already i am very happy to sit back and wait

unless something extraordinary happens, the deal looks done and dusted @ 670 + 5 divi ..... likley completion in November ..... with sp at a silly 639, this is surely a very safe place to put money with an annualised return surely in mid teens