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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

hlyeo98 - 15 May 2006 15:52 - 17 of 1564

Dow up 23 points now...looking healthy today

WOODIE - 15 May 2006 16:08 - 18 of 1564

dont get carried away yet it might be a short term bounce? if at the end of the day if it can put on 50 + points then hold onto the gains tuesday it might look a bit better,the dow is the strongest index at the moment not much damage has been done yet? where as the ftse,cac,dax & sp have gone broken through trendlines for this year and all have gaps to fill.

driver - 15 May 2006 16:13 - 19 of 1564

Heeeeeelp I'm going under.

jimmy b - 15 May 2006 16:22 - 20 of 1564

Don't worry driver you'll bob back up to the surface.

driver - 15 May 2006 16:47 - 21 of 1564

I think it's to late jimmy.

soul traders - 15 May 2006 19:12 - 22 of 1564

Interesting to see that just about everything has taken a bashing today - even small-cap pharmas and biotechs on my watchlists are in the red, so it's not just the commodities.

Meanwhile the Dow has barely moved. Is this a one-day dip or are we heading for a summer of discontent?

WOODIE - 15 May 2006 19:27 - 23 of 1564

soul traders its more then a 1 day dip this is the third down day see my previous post the dow has come off its low but is well off its high as we are now entering the quite months for the markets, i dont think we will see new highs in the ftse until later in the year if at all dyor.

jimmy b - 15 May 2006 21:01 - 24 of 1564

Well the dow finished UP ,see what tomorrow brings.

soul traders - 16 May 2006 10:38 - 25 of 1564

Part of the problem here is discerning the moods of the hedge funds. If it is true that one of the main drivers in the commodities market has been speculative buying by the hedge boys, putting a 20% premium on prices as I have heard, then surely when the hedgers unwind their positions or turn bearish, the whole market could fall quite far, quite fast - i.e. the worst may be yet to come.

Demand for the physical commodities e.g. economic growth in China, would not be able to compensate for the collapsing futures prices. Any views?

cynic - 16 May 2006 10:56 - 26 of 1564

Having taken a pasting myself, I think I reflect the whole market - i.e. the good get thrown to the dogs along with the bad and the ugly

WOODIE - 16 May 2006 10:57 - 27 of 1564

s traders the market has climbed a wall of worry over the last 3 years ie higher interest rates,high oil prices etc now traders/investors are taking note of any bad news ,i feel if we get a piece of unexpected bad news the market will fall further.

soul traders - 16 May 2006 11:01 - 28 of 1564

Interesting comment, Woodie. Am just mulling whether to pull a few grand out and get liquid so that I can buy back in at the bottom.

However, the arguments for staying invested based on fundamentals remain strong as many of the small-caps are still working on going into production and will still be profitable when they do, producing SP growth, unlike the majors who are more exclusively dependent upon strong commodities prices to inflate the SP.

Will have a cup of tea and think about it.

cynic - 16 May 2006 11:02 - 29 of 1564

when the markets react to bad news and ignore good, you have the classic indications of a bear market

soul traders - 16 May 2006 11:09 - 30 of 1564

Well put - I think I'm going to have that embroidered and framded for the wall next to my monitor.

You may just have made up my mind do to that liquidation thing. Not panicking, but I would rather anticipate the crowd than be trampled by it.

Will you join me for that cuppa, Cynic?

jimmy b - 16 May 2006 11:11 - 31 of 1564

soul traders two sugars please .
I have closed several positions yeaterday keeping just a couple of faithfuls ,i think we could be going sideways for a while after this battering stops ,i'm usually an optimist ,but i think this may take a while to recover .

skyhigh - 16 May 2006 11:13 - 32 of 1564

What a bummer of a week !
I'm showing greater losses today than yesterday... from delayed fallout

It's sell in May and go away big time... FTSE could still go down to 5500/5600 for a 10% sell off from 6100.

Will wait for the dust to settle and then top up on a few that I think will do well ie
VOG, ARC,TPA, FFA, HDD, HYR, NWD, SMRT, SYG, ACC, CFE

Anyone have any others that they think will do well from this fallout ?

hewittalan6 - 16 May 2006 11:20 - 33 of 1564

2 spring to mind, cos of news they released that was virtually ignored in the panic.
WIL and DCD.
WIL bought another company, that looks like it will enhance their offering and DCD won a Saturday Morning childrens show contratc for ITV. That is a major slot, so there is a great chance to really showcase their abilities. The directors also said something about confidence in next year.
Alan

hewittalan6 - 16 May 2006 11:22 - 34 of 1564

I also think both SVE and CSB were undervalued before yesterday when they fell, so they look even better value now.
Alan

WOODIE - 16 May 2006 11:28 - 35 of 1564

ftse again could not hang onto the rally this morning still showing weak buying with no follow through.

cynic - 16 May 2006 11:29 - 36 of 1564

soul* ..... I feel i need a bit more than cup of tea at the moment ..... a stiff drink followed by someone shagging me senseless might help at least temporarily! ..... Felt reluctantly obliged to get rid of some good stuff as well as peripheral ..... Have even reduced my holding in VOG back to my original core holding ...... Just hope that EME does not disappoint as and when they make an announcement
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