< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

I reckon no 140p hombre.,.

Dougie Youngson, analyst at Arbuthnot, says Afrens (LON:AFR) production down grade is not surprising given that Ebok, where there was a delay in start-up during first half, is in that tricky tinkering phase which all fields have at the beginning.

Youngson continues to rate Afren a strong buy, with a target price of 209p.

He says key reasons to plump for Afren include strong production growth; a healthy pipeline of potential acquisitions (which he expects to see action on during the 2011 year); and an East African exploration portfolio that has huge upside potential.

Youngson expects the market to focus on the production downgrade today. But he is sticking to his guns: Afren continues to be our top pick on the main board. It has a strong long term investment case, with a major uplift in production this year, acquisition growth and potentially some interesting exploration in East Africa.

Chart trend is showing a downtrend... soon it will be below 140p

your reading it up side down

We will see in a few weeks' time.

200 dma is still rising strongly and sp is now sitting right on it
it's the first time in an age that sp has challenged that going south, but my own inclination would be to look for a bounce from here rather than a meaningful piercing

of course, all is inevitably dependent upon the markets remaining stable

Afren
148p -3p
Questor says BUY
The FTSE 250 group, which had guided to production of 40,000 boepd, said delays relating to safety in bringing oil from the offshore at its flagship Ebok field in Nigeria prompted the downgrade.
This is obviously disappointing but the shares have been surprisingly resilient despite the news. The cause of the downgrade is logistical and nothing to do with production at the field. Indeed, Ebok is performing better than expected.
The shares are also pretty cheap and at a significant discount to other upstream oil groups such as Premier Oil. However, Afren's assets are in some of the riskier regions of the world.
Analysts are working on the assumption that the guidance is probably on the conservative side.

http://www.igindex.co.uk/content/files/ukratings_20jul2011_igiam.pdf

Seems from the buy recomendations that the market feeks the bad news is out?

Reasoned view from Mr Poshman over at iii .

Sure the delays in production are disappointing but you have missed some clear points that may not be great for the traders but are great for the long termers here.

"Post period end, the Company has also completed and brought onstream a production well targeting the D1 reservoir, also in the Central Fault Block area. The well has produced significantly ahead of expectations, delivering a rate of 4,000 bopd with a down-hole pump installed. As a consequence the partners have elected to prioritise the further development of the D1 reservoir at this location."

Not sure whether this relates to the Ebok-8 well or not, but this is 4k bopd on top of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 35k bopd, so great news.

"Drilling results to date have been better than expected, giving longer oil bearing sections and better reservoir properties in the LD-1E reservoir in particular. Up to three wells will be bought on-stream during September, with
Phase 2 expected to add 20,000 bopd to gross field output once all four wells are onstream in October."

Whilst the timing is disappointing, this could add further 2P reserves and higher flow rates than initially thought which is great news for the longevity of the field.

We also now know where the 2 rigs on the Ebok area will go next.

Being as the wells for Ebok have taken roughly 30-35 days to drill I have the timelines set as below.

GSF - Phase 2 drilling - to end Sept - Oct, then 3 further production wells on the WFB - south west part of the field. These 3 are not included in the 50k bopd net interest as far as I can tell. This will take the rig into 2012.

Adriatic - 3 further D1 reservoir production wells on CFB - assume till end Oct, then onto Ebok North - Nov - then probably move to either Okwok or Ufon. I would think logistically Okwok would be better, likely to be Dec into Jan I would think.

Great news there, with 1 producer drilled not included in the original 35k bopd expected from Ebok. Then a further 6 wells to be drilled, also not included in the original Phase 1 / 2 drill programmes. Excellent news and could bring Ebok close to the initial 50k bopd capacity that the MOPU has, ie. it may be looked at upgrading capacity during 2012, I would think, especially if Ebok North finds oil etc.

Looks like Tanga / L17/L18 may well have a 2 well programme going on, end 2011 into 2012.

10A could also be a large find, drilling hopefully in 4th quarter - upto Tullow not Afren.

Increase in stake in Madagascar - to 90% - good move I reckon.

Downsides are obvious.

- Delays to production
- Likely delay in rig mobility to Keta
- No farm in partner yet for OPL310. I reckon we may end up going it alone. The last update suggested some good interest was being shown, the statement has now changed to be less bullish

Doesn't look as if the market shares taffys initial doom. Down 2%. Once the disappointment of delayed production is gone and people realise the impact of the D1 flow rates, this will recover and squish taffys short position.

Good news or nay will use same tactics Limit Buy 152.0 Tgt 173.0 if triggered stop under 200DMA recurring :O)

Limit buy 152p??? It's below that now! Or have you already bought at that price?

Harry It's a spread bet to buy @ 152.0

Ah....forgot you were trading that way.

Dougie Youngson, analyst at Arbuthnot, says Afrens (LON:AFR) production down grade is not surprising given that Ebok, where there was a delay in start-up during first half, is in that tricky tinkering phase which all fields have at the beginning.

Youngson continues to rate Afren a strong buy, with a target price of 209p.

He says key reasons to plump for Afren include strong production growth; a healthy pipeline of potential acquisitions (which he expects to see action on during the 2011 year); and an East African exploration portfolio that has huge upside potential.

Youngson expects the market to focus on the production downgrade today. But he is sticking to his guns: Afren continues to be our top pick on the main board. It has a strong long term investment case, with a major uplift in production this year, acquisition growth and potentially some interesting exploration in East Africa

FT Comment

Most oil companies could expect a substantial share price fall after downgrading their average 2011 production estimates by a third, as Afrens peer Premier Oil can attest after a smaller proportionate downgrade earlier this month. The fact Afrens shares rose bear testament to investors strong nerves. The downgrade is due to difficulties inherent in a company with exposure to Nigerias capricious politics. Despite the delays, Afren said its fields there would be producing nearly 50,000 boepd by the end of the year bolstering cash flow and helping fund its increasing focus on exploration. Its nine well programme in the second half is among the most ambitious in the sector, with wells close to producing fields in Nigeria offering relatively low risk mixed with more prospective plays in Tanzania and Kenya. Trading at 7 times 2011 earnings, compared with Premier on 12 times and Tullow Oil on 23 times, Afren could prove good value for those with steady nerves

Adding thr following presentaion to the header to allow some editting.

http://www.afren.com/download.axd?id=1317

what is the incentive to invest in AFR with production targets downgraded and not much upside for investors in this Nigerian run company?

long term hold, secure investment.......bit like ore or des.,.

Afren has received government approval to assume operatorship and increase its interest in Block 1101, onshore Madagascar, to 90%.

A revised work programme has also been agreed.

Block 1101 is located on the eastern flank of the Ambilobe basin in northern Madagascar.

The block encompasses an area of approximately 14,900 sq km onshore and lies next to ExxonMobil's Ampasindava block.

Afren has increased its overall participation in Block 1101 to a 90% operated interest through the reassignment of a 50% interest previously held by Candax Energy, which retains a 10% interest.

Government approvals for the reassignment have been received and a revised work programme agreed with OMNIS, the state oil and gas agency.

CEO Osman Shahenshah said: "We see tremendous prospectivity in Madagascar and now, as operator, are keen to explore our high potential acreage.

"We are grateful to OMNIS and the Malagasy authorities for their endorsement and approval of this transaction and extended work program.

"We look forward to collaborating with our hosts and partner Candax in the ongoing exploration at Block 1101, and to further establishing Afren's long term commitment to this exciting exploration play."

Looks like the '140p brigade' may be right.