A busy day in the Warsaw Underground !

Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

as the chart in the header shows, there is a fair amount of resistance around this level so it is not unreasonable to see sp taking a breather after its recent rises .... so long as it does not tumble dramatically, even if only brought about by general market malaise, it is not unreasonable to expect sp to take a run at getting through the 44p barrier ...... i suspect it will take more than one effort to do so, but once that happens, there is good upside potential.

On what do you base your good upside potential cynic, it would be nice to get an intelligent point of view.

as i inexpertly read these things, it seems to me that there is only slight resistance at 46 and then nothing until the all time high is reached at about 50 ..... this latter will probably prove a reasonably stern psychological barrier, but of course after that, one is in clear water.

that said, and i have said it before, it gives me concern (or it would do if i was investing my money) that COH does not seem to have a solid homebase, yet it thinks it has the knowledge and strength and financial and organisational skills to open up willy-nilly abroad ...... feels to me like a great leap of faith for both the management and the investors!

Fair comment, fairly put with a taste of panache.

So then if I may come back with a supplimentary, let me please ask you, are you concerned, or would you be if you were an investor, over the content of the Numis Note. Strong on flavour as it is, but low on substance, being as there is not, any mention of Nett profits, but plenty on the strong like for like sales which to me are indicating a high(overly so) operating cost.

i have not read the Numis note

would you like to its on this thread above

Would I suggest you go onto the COH website David and have a look at the financials might save an awful lot of your time on this thread... You will find all the details you require including Nett Profit...

From the Interims cash flow statement dated 30 November 2006:

Cash at Bank and in hand 2.26M

Recent fund raising 3.89M (less expenses which I would expect to be in the region of 100-200k)

Total of 6.15M say 6M less the expenses for the fundraising.

Last month according to Numis the cash position stood at 5.3M

Since Novemeber cash burn has been 700k.

2006 total operating expenses for six months (again drawn from the Nov 2006 Interims) somewhere in the region of 4M

So looking at the last six months it would appear that 3.3M has come from somewhere in general terms, now I wonder where that came from?

Seems COH must be selling the odd cup of coffee now and again, especially when noting the following:

"The recent fund raising, together with current cash flows and resources, means we now have the debt free capacity to invest some USD $20 million over the next two to three years in central Europe in new stores and support infrastructure."

All in all I don't think COH shareholders need to worry where the money is going, the cash position appears quite resilient despite the additional investments. Mostly done on the back of a fag packet, but much better than the scaremongering (err, plain lies) that seems to have infested the thread since the arrival of a certain loony.

pth

HARDLY PITHY read the Numis note, being the most recent figures that we have. 67 stores on average each making just over 400 quid per anum I wonder where the 3.3 Million came from then?

If we have 4 million in operating cost for 6 month, then it safe to assume 8 million for 12 months to run 67 stores, that equates to 11,940 runing costs for each store. Traditionally the margin on coffee sales is high around 70% . So lets be generous and give them 50%.

Each store should be "netting" a 1000 per week, otherwise it not worth the bother! That should give nett profits of 3.5 million pounds per annum.

PITHY says they have 33.5 MILLION SURPLUS IN SIX MONTHS i WOULD LIKE TO WHERE FROM.

WHICH EVER WAY YOU LOOK AT THE FIGURES THEY JUST DONT ADD UP AS EVEN TAKING AN UPWARD SLIDING SCALE PROFIT/COST RATIO OVER THE PAST 7 YEARS AND ALLOWING FOR NEW OPENINGS COMING ON LINE---THE CASH FLOW IS NOT CONVERTING INTO A REASONABLE PROPORTION OF NETT PROFITS, IS JUST NOT THERE

More whinges and whines from the top guru Thrush (you know who I mean)

"No mention of nett profits the bottom line, so the cost of the these over the counter sales must be horrendous, lets see if we can fine them in what Numis has to say.

First quarter group like for like sales growth came in at a robust 21% with total store net sales up 59% to 3.4m. At the end of the June its estate comprised 67 stores in countries and its cash position stood at 5.3m. OK SO FAR, BUT WHERE HAS THE REST OF THE SHAREHOLDER'S MONEY GONE FROM THE BANK.

"Like-for-like sales rose 20% in Poland; 28% in Czech Republic; 10% in Latvia; and 73% in Bulgaria. The company says trading in all markets remains buoyant. Encouragingly, sales growth was stronger towards the end of the first quarter. ----FINE BUT WHERE IS THE NETT PROFIT!"

So where is the NET PROFIT from the NUMIS broker note? I've answered the cash question in my previous post, but what about the NET PROFITS??? Good grief the NET PROFITS!!!!

Read and learn Thrush, because you do continue to make yourself look rather uneducated and dare I say STUPID?

From the NUMIS broker note:

"Numis anticipates current year pretax profits of 300,000 and earnings per share of 0.3p, rising to 500,00 and 0.4p in 2008; and 1m and 0.7p in 2009."

Now the crux of the matter is the EPS, clearly you don't understand EPS. Let me help; EPS is calculated by dividing the NET INCOME or NET PROFIT by the weighted average of common shares, note the terms NET INCOME and NET PROFIT. So you should be able to work out that NUMIS have actually provided NET PROFITS, you just need to find out how to operate a calculator to work it out. However, I'm not confident you will be able to do so.

pth

PS. Just had a read of your last post, full of uneducated assumptions rather than referring to the information that is available from Broker notes or the company accounts. Please don't bother to reply, you're back in the squelch bin (I only took you out to have a laugh at your replies to the well deserved bollocking from AM - another banning on the cards?)

OK fair point so What is the nett profit per store.

Simple question for you

Thrush, I can see you have posted, possibly in response to my own thoughts. Now do remember you are in the squelch bin, so although I can see you have posted from the thread list, mercifully your uneducated ramblings are once again hidden from my sensitive eyes. I will take you out of the bin though when you get your next bollocking from AM, which I doubt will take very long. LoL

Well I guess you will have to tell me then, because as I see it we have been given EPS at .3p.

There are currently 116.38 m shares in issue, this gives us anticipated pre tax profits of 349140 between 67 stores which is an average gross profit of 5211 per store.

As I stated above: If we have 4 million in operating cost for 6 months, then it safe to assume 8 million for 12 months to run 67 stores, that equates to 11,940 runing costs for each store, per annum.

From these figures you can clearly see that COH is losing money, which has been my contention all along, and hense the cash burn mentioned above and the deficiency bewteen what is now in the bank and the shareholders' funds called upon.

Even if I am out on a plus or minus scale its still not a very healthy company to risk an investment in, as its just not making the money.

What you are not understanding is that things to the locals out there ,cost a hell of a lot less than here. Mr Worthington seems to be valuing things on UK prices---SNACK ATTACK proved him to be ----well extravagant at best.

Dont fret on it too much, just have a nice relaxing evening.

But there is no cash burn look at the financials your analysis is flawed... I am not fretting far from it as stated numerous times and for the last time as Ian has asked to move on I personally have top sliced showing 200% profit... END OF...

Adie, my argument is not with you but rather dispelling the lies and disinformation from the resident loon. Seems that the figures are quite straightforward; COH had 6M they now have 5.3M. Rather than categorising the reduction as 'cash burn' perhaps investment in infrastructure would have been a more appropriate phrase. However, well done on your return :)

pth

Come on gentlemen you want an indepth discussion pick up the points I have made and show me where I have got it wrong.

I am bg enough to stand corrected---are you?

No probl ptholden, no issues with you or your postings as I say its good to get differing points of views... Regards.

Ok David here are the facts.

You have stated that COH are worth 6p a share. You have also stated that you are here to champion the effect of the rampers.

You really do need to sit back and let the share price do the talking.

Until the share price drops to that amount you have nothing much else to say.

You have made your point, and I will be amazed if your not banned shortly.

If you are allowed to continue to post as you do, I will seriously consider not renewing my subscription to shares magazine as it really is getting a joke now.

On the contrary Trigger.

Firstly I think it was proteous who gave the NAV at 6p

I have countered the reasoning put forward and given my calculations.

I have asks the board menebrer here with a interest in COH to scrutinize my interpretation of the NUMIS NOTE and tell me where I have got it wrong.

Now if you cant do that what is the point of having a BB.

And If I get banned for expressing my concerns and asking for guidance---then perhaps this BB is below me.

So if you want an intelligent discussion please give me an answer.

Ok David if you want an intelligent dissiccussion, I think we need to answer a couple of question don't you?

You have stated many, many times that you never invested in BKE. I have no reason to disbelieve you.

You have also stated that you have never invested in COH, as far as I'm aware.

Could you also clarify that you have never invested in any company that RW has been involved with.

As I assume you will say no, let me then ask how your interest in RW came about?