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MEDICAL MARKETING, A Speculative Punt That Might Reap Rich Rewards (MMG)     

goldfinger - 01 Sep 2004 15:33

This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

mitzy - 10 Jun 2005 12:06 - 1724 of 2444

Your not the only one Pete...

mickeyskint - 10 Jun 2005 16:12 - 1725 of 2444

From the other side.

A0469514 - 10 Jun'05 - 11:41 - 5845 of 5853


These presentations in Dublin and Jersey are not for issuing new news but are to make the investment community aware of the potential in MMI. On here, we know enough so that most of us realise that the potential is massive. My research in the company satisfies me that the ruthenium compounds are an almost certain future blockbuster which, alone, will transform the company and its share price. Today's announcement strengthens that likelihood. Furthermore the Genvax trials look very likely to me to have a high probability of success, in which case, there could be two or three massive products resulting from that programme too. If David Best can get that feeling across to the institutions then the share price is sure to respond. You do not tend to get immediate share price action resulting from these presentations but we should see some benefit over the next few days.

Xylos

mickeyskint - 10 Jun 2005 16:16 - 1726 of 2444

Again from the other place. Xylos makes a lot of sence to me, a good poster.

A0469514 - 10 Jun'05 - 12:12 - 5848 of 5853


And as a further afterthought, whilst the general investment community may not be aware of what is happening, that most certainly will not be the case for the big pharmaceutical companies who, more than ever, are scouring the globe for just such opportunities that MMI appear to hold.

It is dangerous to make predictions on here, but I think that there is a strong likelihood, from hints that Mr Best has given out, that there will be a big deal with a top company BEFORE the ruthenium phase 2 trial starts. This will involve up front payments and further milestone payments, as each stage is successfully reached, followed by royalties when the products start to hit the market. Phase 2 trials are due to start in 2005 so we may not have long to wait. If that does happen, analysts will finally have a way to start valuing the company and I can only guess at what that might be.

Xylos

049balt - 10 Jun 2005 16:26 - 1727 of 2444

Sorry for the delay in reporting on the meeting that DB. had in Dublin. Unfortunatly my broker was unable to attend the meeting. Regards balt.

Pete168 - 13 Jun 2005 08:36 - 1728 of 2444

I think Xylos' comments are somewhat misleading. He states that from his research the Ru compounds are an almost certain blockbuster.
I don't think even David Best or Prof Peter Sadler would echo that sentiment and they are more in the know than anyone.
This is a drug that has yet to be tested on patients and with the recent high profile problems with the drugs Crestor and Iressa, it should be acknowledged that there is still a long, long way to go.

I do think Xylos' comments re: a deal may be closer than most think to be near the mark. All the extra tests and new patent all signal a change in direction from the AGM where Ru was to be in the clinic year end 2004.

Added a few more recently but as ever remain cautiuosly optimistic.

mickeyskint - 13 Jun 2005 10:55 - 1729 of 2444

From the other side. Pete I hope this makes you feel a little more positive.

A0469514 - 12 Jun'05 - 09:13 - 5855 of 5858


Well, we will see. You have not convinced me yet guys.

There was another hint in David Best's presentation, if you remember. He said that they were taking the pre-clinical studies of the ruthenium compounds much further than was required by the FDA and other regulators. He said that they could easily have been in Phase 2 trials by now. The reason he gave for this was that they needed to attract big pharma and big pharma were crucially interested in safety so they were voluntarily doing extra studies.

The clear implication to me was that they were putting together a set of data which would be extremely attractive as a probable future blockbuster drug with a view to getting one of the major companies to fund all the clinical trials.

It all fits together as far as I am concerned but I may be wrong and in any case, it would depend on Mr Best's negotiating skills and whether he felt he could get the best deal now or a better deal by waiting.

I think that he might be very keen to clinch a deal now though. It would certainly dramatically improve the share price, get his company some big publicity and make negotiations on the other products that much easier.

Xylos

bolador - 12 Jun'05 - 13:06 - 5856 of 5858


Xylos, what you say is logical and I have no doubt that the directors
can pursue what ever route they feel is in the company's best interests,
however they should explain clearly what they are doing without the need
for you or anyone else to mind read or consider implications if they
have made a change in policy.

Given the opportunity I shall ask David Best if they plan to do a deal before
Phase 11 is completed at the forthcoming Jersey meeting on the 15th June.
In the meantime the mounting collection of patents is perhaps good reason
to believe something really important is being achieved here.



A0469514 - 12 Jun'05 - 15:29 - 5857 of 5858


Bolador, I am not sure that David Best has an obligation to spell out his strategy in detail to shareholders when he is trying to clinch a deal and I do not think that it would be fair to criticise him for keeping things close to his chest. If I was in his position, I do not think that I would wish to advertise the fact that I was in negotiations, otherwise the wider market would start building up expectations of a deal and, if it did not come, the share price could slide. I have seen this happen with other shares which I hold such as Proteome and Alizyme, for example.

I am sure that we will all be interested in David Best's reply to you but I suspect that he will not give much away. It will be far better for him to spring a successful deal onto the market and watch the share price take off. I think that he has the interests of shareholders in mind and we should trust him to make the best deal that he can when he judges that the time is right.

Nevertheless, my money is on a deal within weeks.

Xylos

mickeyskint - 14 Jun 2005 10:18 - 1730 of 2444

All a bit quite so I got this from the other side. It might give the doubters hope.

A0469514 - 14 Jun'05 - 00:42 - 5859 of 5862


It's only a hunch guys, I do not have any inside information but I have done my research and I am predicting (I know I shouldn't do this) that the announcement for phase 2 trials for ruthenium cancer therapies (due in a matter of weeks) will also include details of a big pharma partnership. I am sticking my neck out a long way here, I know, but I will leave you to predict what that might do to the share price.

Xylos

bolador - 14 Jun'05 - 09:02 - 5860 of 5862


Death or glory, eh Xylos ?

johnwatson50 - 14 Jun'05 - 09:10 - 5861 of 5862


I have been following MMG for some time now like most on this board. I have recently topped up solely on the reasoning that news propells this share and news is due soon, ( how soon is anybodys guess ) and whether it is good news or not is again anybodys guess. However this company has a fantastic business model and they have some of the best people around working on the various projects. I therefore feel that the balance is in favour of good news not bad.

What other basis at this time do we have to make an invetment decision!!!



A0469514 - 14 Jun'05 - 09:32 - 5862 of 5862


Death or glory? Well if I am right, people will probably forget who predicted it. If I am wrong, well it doesn't matter too much. It will just mean that it will take a little longer to become a 10 bagger. I am pretty confident we will get to 15 a share in a year or two one way or another.

Xylos

Pete168 - 14 Jun 2005 11:48 - 1731 of 2444

Having reviewed comments here and reviewed the MMI business plan again, I think the views expressed here may be off the mark.
The business plan clearly states that a licensing deal will be sought once a drug has finished successful Phase 2 or is close to completing Phase 2.
There is only one MMI drug in that position at the moment.

Pete168 - 15 Jun 2005 08:12 - 1732 of 2444

Jersey presentation today.
Nothing new expected but might trigger a few buys.

jimmy b - 15 Jun 2005 08:34 - 1733 of 2444

swseun - 15 Jun 2005 15:50 - 1734 of 2444

what's a dramatic change from this morning's downward to now blue!!!! hope it keeps going for the rest of week/month/year!

mitzy - 15 Jun 2005 16:35 - 1735 of 2444

Managed to finish at its intraday high which bodes well for tomorrow..

pumben - 15 Jun 2005 20:28 - 1736 of 2444

does anyone know, did the buying pick up after the Jersey presentation. If it did then I see that as a postive step. Having the Jersey presentation so close after the one in Irelend it appears that DB is trying to getting the strenghts of MMG !!

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:33 - 1737 of 2444

From the other place. Looking good people.

bolador - 15 Jun'05 - 15:50 - 5870 of 5878


I went to the Jersey presentation for MMI today and would comment as follows.

As I understand it,

1. With the required regulatory framework GENVAX works and this is the first
time that vaccine therapy has worked in a sustained manner on humans.

2. The company has deep confidence that Ruthenium will be a very signicant
therapy against the most common types of cancer.

3. The company is in talks with big pharma with regard to its products.

4. The company has no concerns about working capital since institutional investors have indicted they will support the company if it wants to
hold off doing a deal to get better terms. A deal with big pharma is the
most likely source of funding but there is no anxiety at all. Current
cash is sufficient for about one year.

5. The company has a significant pipeline, quite disproportionate to its
size compared to other pharmas with bigger mkt caps.

6. I came away feeling that this was buy opportunity at the curent sp, but
there are of course always the chances of bad luck and something unexpected.

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:37 - 1738 of 2444

And yet more info. Are things starting to warm up, lets hope so.

bolador - 15 Jun'05 - 17:08 - 5875 of 5878


Mitzis,

Yes there are new technologies coming along, the pipeline is very big indeed for
the company's size. Viral tech was one but I could not take notes fast enough
to give you a detailed answer. David Best was very approachable and I am sure
the company would give you info about the presentation if you wrote or telephoned.
It is Genvax, the first working cancer vaccine in the world and Ruthenium which
will be the share price drivers this year.

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:44 - 1739 of 2444

A lot of info in the last couple of days from the other place. MMG is one of the more sensible threads.

bolador - 16 Jun'05 - 05:25 - 5877 of 5878


I am pleased that you have reduced you bullish case to one of sentiment
Xylos because it is a lot safer than your adamant earlier statements.
However I am disappointed that you did not take up my challenge to define
the reasons for your position. Had you done so I would have felt better
prepared before I went to the Jersey seminar.

There is little doubt that this company is a great story and probably a superb
investment opportunity. For sure a hostile analyst could make a case pointing
out the fragility of the whole operation at this critical stage but then I
think that todays share price roughly takes that into account.

One thing I would add is that current regulations make it difficult
for stockbrokers to advise buying this stock for investment clients because
it is so difficult to pretend that this is anything other than a speculation.

el magnifico - 16 Jun'05 - 10:18 - 5878 of 5878


bolador,

You are right to speculate that MMG's Viratis division may be interesting in future : Dr Peter Eagles of Viratis gets the same billing as Peter Sadler (Oncosense) and Freda Steveson (Genvax)in the third slide of MMG's 26th April 2005 presentation. To an outsider, the pedigree of Viratis's collaboration with King's and QMC London bears comparison with Edinburgh or Southampton Universities as research centres. Viratis's ribozymal-based technology could well prove to be a dark horse for 2H '05. No guarantees, but at least MMG is in the game, with nothing in the share price for a Viratis announcement.

Also interesting that MMG has increased its stake in Viratis to 72 %, from 50 % (see Slide 4 "Portfolio" from 26th April '05). While the motive for this is unknown, there is an interesting precedent : MMG negotiated its increase in its Genvax stake (50 % to 58 %) before the 22nd March '05 announcement of substantial progress in the DNA cancer vaccine trials.

It is worth noting that HIV/AIDS was previously the focus for Viratis (31 March '04 Annual), but the 26th April '05 presentation cites "Viruses, Arthritis, Asthsma" as the therapeutic focus areas, with hepatitis featuring in October '04's AGM release. This "mission-creep" is unnerving, but not unusual for early-staging testing of cutting-edge technology. Clinical trials were supposed to begin sometime in 2005, once delivery technology was optimised. All rather open-ended now, but may bear fruit.

One other "unknowable" is the space left for "Newco's" in MMG's Aril '05 Portfolio Slide - MMG's business model should attract bright and ambitious research scientists in the UK academic sphere. I would suggest that Freda Stephenson clearly understands how MMG's Genvax structure leverages her outcomes, although I suspect that Peter Sadler is more interested in the rocket-science than the commercial aspect. I would be surprised if there were no Newco's announced in 2005.

bolador : one question harking back to 26th April '05 meeting : was Chiron mentioned in relation to Genvax in Jersey, as some posters here suggested in April '05 ?

As an aside, Pfizer paid $1.9 billion for Vicuron last night, 84 % above previous close. Vicuron is a company with existing anti-fungals, but the excitement is in anti-infectives (MRSA ec). Vicuron has never made money and is being taken out at a valuation of 200 x sales (greater than MMG's sales ratio, even at the current, immature, sales level!) Oh yes, MMG bought a small business from Novartis, called Endozyme, which, in collaboration with Cambridge University, develops indications in secondary cancers, but also in..."multiple drug-resistant bacteria".

I fully accept that MMG is a speculation. But informed and reasoned speculation is part of the investment process and, as long as individuals consider their own risk profiles when making patient, long-term commitments, an element of speculation is appropriate. After all, when did Glaxo stop being a speculation and become an investment ? A shareholder participating in the metamorphosis from one state to the next will have experienced huge gains, but may have missed noting the date when his speculation became an investment. Without wishing to stretch a point, the enormous value generation of successful Phase II clinical trials, as demonstrated by MMG in its 2004 AGM slides, has similar characteristics to the transition phase from speculation to investment!

The breadth of MMG's existing portfolio diminishes risk in the same way that diversified stock portfolios do. This lessens the speculative aspect of MMG to a degree. In terms of risk/reward, I believe that MMG is an outstanding "bet".

el

mitzy - 16 Jun 2005 11:54 - 1740 of 2444

mickey:
I get a feeling that the next Aid/hiv annoucement could be the key to getting the media/retail aatention that MMI so badly needs and we are due something from viratis about now..it usually is about June time...

mitzy - 16 Jun 2005 11:54 - 1741 of 2444

.

swseun - 16 Jun 2005 20:40 - 1742 of 2444

i might be silly, but investors must know all the above good news, how come the trade today was so quiet, and price even go downward?

Pete168 - 17 Jun 2005 10:34 - 1743 of 2444

The traders (fast buck) were possibly expecting an RNS with the Jersey Presentation.
Same thing happened after the R&D update.

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