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MEDICAL MARKETING, A Speculative Punt That Might Reap Rich Rewards (MMG)     

goldfinger - 01 Sep 2004 15:33

This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

Pete168 - 15 Jun 2005 08:12 - 1732 of 2444

Jersey presentation today.
Nothing new expected but might trigger a few buys.

jimmy b - 15 Jun 2005 08:34 - 1733 of 2444

swseun - 15 Jun 2005 15:50 - 1734 of 2444

what's a dramatic change from this morning's downward to now blue!!!! hope it keeps going for the rest of week/month/year!

mitzy - 15 Jun 2005 16:35 - 1735 of 2444

Managed to finish at its intraday high which bodes well for tomorrow..

pumben - 15 Jun 2005 20:28 - 1736 of 2444

does anyone know, did the buying pick up after the Jersey presentation. If it did then I see that as a postive step. Having the Jersey presentation so close after the one in Irelend it appears that DB is trying to getting the strenghts of MMG !!

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:33 - 1737 of 2444

From the other place. Looking good people.

bolador - 15 Jun'05 - 15:50 - 5870 of 5878


I went to the Jersey presentation for MMI today and would comment as follows.

As I understand it,

1. With the required regulatory framework GENVAX works and this is the first
time that vaccine therapy has worked in a sustained manner on humans.

2. The company has deep confidence that Ruthenium will be a very signicant
therapy against the most common types of cancer.

3. The company is in talks with big pharma with regard to its products.

4. The company has no concerns about working capital since institutional investors have indicted they will support the company if it wants to
hold off doing a deal to get better terms. A deal with big pharma is the
most likely source of funding but there is no anxiety at all. Current
cash is sufficient for about one year.

5. The company has a significant pipeline, quite disproportionate to its
size compared to other pharmas with bigger mkt caps.

6. I came away feeling that this was buy opportunity at the curent sp, but
there are of course always the chances of bad luck and something unexpected.

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:37 - 1738 of 2444

And yet more info. Are things starting to warm up, lets hope so.

bolador - 15 Jun'05 - 17:08 - 5875 of 5878


Mitzis,

Yes there are new technologies coming along, the pipeline is very big indeed for
the company's size. Viral tech was one but I could not take notes fast enough
to give you a detailed answer. David Best was very approachable and I am sure
the company would give you info about the presentation if you wrote or telephoned.
It is Genvax, the first working cancer vaccine in the world and Ruthenium which
will be the share price drivers this year.

mickeyskint - 16 Jun 2005 11:44 - 1739 of 2444

A lot of info in the last couple of days from the other place. MMG is one of the more sensible threads.

bolador - 16 Jun'05 - 05:25 - 5877 of 5878


I am pleased that you have reduced you bullish case to one of sentiment
Xylos because it is a lot safer than your adamant earlier statements.
However I am disappointed that you did not take up my challenge to define
the reasons for your position. Had you done so I would have felt better
prepared before I went to the Jersey seminar.

There is little doubt that this company is a great story and probably a superb
investment opportunity. For sure a hostile analyst could make a case pointing
out the fragility of the whole operation at this critical stage but then I
think that todays share price roughly takes that into account.

One thing I would add is that current regulations make it difficult
for stockbrokers to advise buying this stock for investment clients because
it is so difficult to pretend that this is anything other than a speculation.

el magnifico - 16 Jun'05 - 10:18 - 5878 of 5878


bolador,

You are right to speculate that MMG's Viratis division may be interesting in future : Dr Peter Eagles of Viratis gets the same billing as Peter Sadler (Oncosense) and Freda Steveson (Genvax)in the third slide of MMG's 26th April 2005 presentation. To an outsider, the pedigree of Viratis's collaboration with King's and QMC London bears comparison with Edinburgh or Southampton Universities as research centres. Viratis's ribozymal-based technology could well prove to be a dark horse for 2H '05. No guarantees, but at least MMG is in the game, with nothing in the share price for a Viratis announcement.

Also interesting that MMG has increased its stake in Viratis to 72 %, from 50 % (see Slide 4 "Portfolio" from 26th April '05). While the motive for this is unknown, there is an interesting precedent : MMG negotiated its increase in its Genvax stake (50 % to 58 %) before the 22nd March '05 announcement of substantial progress in the DNA cancer vaccine trials.

It is worth noting that HIV/AIDS was previously the focus for Viratis (31 March '04 Annual), but the 26th April '05 presentation cites "Viruses, Arthritis, Asthsma" as the therapeutic focus areas, with hepatitis featuring in October '04's AGM release. This "mission-creep" is unnerving, but not unusual for early-staging testing of cutting-edge technology. Clinical trials were supposed to begin sometime in 2005, once delivery technology was optimised. All rather open-ended now, but may bear fruit.

One other "unknowable" is the space left for "Newco's" in MMG's Aril '05 Portfolio Slide - MMG's business model should attract bright and ambitious research scientists in the UK academic sphere. I would suggest that Freda Stephenson clearly understands how MMG's Genvax structure leverages her outcomes, although I suspect that Peter Sadler is more interested in the rocket-science than the commercial aspect. I would be surprised if there were no Newco's announced in 2005.

bolador : one question harking back to 26th April '05 meeting : was Chiron mentioned in relation to Genvax in Jersey, as some posters here suggested in April '05 ?

As an aside, Pfizer paid $1.9 billion for Vicuron last night, 84 % above previous close. Vicuron is a company with existing anti-fungals, but the excitement is in anti-infectives (MRSA ec). Vicuron has never made money and is being taken out at a valuation of 200 x sales (greater than MMG's sales ratio, even at the current, immature, sales level!) Oh yes, MMG bought a small business from Novartis, called Endozyme, which, in collaboration with Cambridge University, develops indications in secondary cancers, but also in..."multiple drug-resistant bacteria".

I fully accept that MMG is a speculation. But informed and reasoned speculation is part of the investment process and, as long as individuals consider their own risk profiles when making patient, long-term commitments, an element of speculation is appropriate. After all, when did Glaxo stop being a speculation and become an investment ? A shareholder participating in the metamorphosis from one state to the next will have experienced huge gains, but may have missed noting the date when his speculation became an investment. Without wishing to stretch a point, the enormous value generation of successful Phase II clinical trials, as demonstrated by MMG in its 2004 AGM slides, has similar characteristics to the transition phase from speculation to investment!

The breadth of MMG's existing portfolio diminishes risk in the same way that diversified stock portfolios do. This lessens the speculative aspect of MMG to a degree. In terms of risk/reward, I believe that MMG is an outstanding "bet".

el

mitzy - 16 Jun 2005 11:54 - 1740 of 2444

mickey:
I get a feeling that the next Aid/hiv annoucement could be the key to getting the media/retail aatention that MMI so badly needs and we are due something from viratis about now..it usually is about June time...

mitzy - 16 Jun 2005 11:54 - 1741 of 2444

.

swseun - 16 Jun 2005 20:40 - 1742 of 2444

i might be silly, but investors must know all the above good news, how come the trade today was so quiet, and price even go downward?

Pete168 - 17 Jun 2005 10:34 - 1743 of 2444

The traders (fast buck) were possibly expecting an RNS with the Jersey Presentation.
Same thing happened after the R&D update.

mickeyskint - 17 Jun 2005 12:21 - 1744 of 2444

They really do need a good PR person.

MS

Pete168 - 17 Jun 2005 13:14 - 1745 of 2444

Why?
MMI are not trying to market the product to the general public.

mayiguo - 17 Jun 2005 13:37 - 1746 of 2444

they do very good marketing to investors, in return, investors pay money into company for some products may or may not be successful in 3 years. they don't need a PR, they are good at it anyway, hence, many bullish statements but nothing fundamental

swseun - 17 Jun 2005 20:07 - 1747 of 2444

even buyers in after 10:30am, price still keep low and even 2p lower to 123p at 12. Buy doubled comparing to sell at the end of the day, still price dropped, there must be something happened or going to be.. but what? anyone?
many thanks and have a nice weekend
swseun

paulmasterson1 - 17 Jun 2005 20:20 - 1748 of 2444


Hi All,

I attended the Jersey presentation, very good it was too, and around 50 shareholders/fund managers/investment managers/Trust managers/etc were there, Ashburton, ABN AMRO, Ansbacher, Insinger de Beaufort(arranged it), HSBC Private Banking, SG Hambros Private Banking, etc.

I know a few of the attendees personally bought shares after the presentation, some bought today, and once they have done their own research and due dilligence, for the companies they represent, and worked out that MMG are very undervalued, which was explained on the last slide of the presentation, with a comparison of MCap's of similar companies, then those companies will very likely be buying big chunks of MMG.

I think there is possibly a bit of a bear squeeze holding back trading, because volume is down to hardly anything, and a friend tried to buy 11,500 today, and HSBC couldn't get them ....

Cheers,
PM


overgrowth - 17 Jun 2005 21:39 - 1749 of 2444

Very interesting pm - one for the watch list.

Goldfinger - it would be handy to have the chart in the header then we can see when the next bounce starts.

swseun - 18 Jun 2005 10:58 - 1750 of 2444

thanks paul,
this is a very encouraging post.

mayiguo - 18 Jun 2005 12:54 - 1751 of 2444

paulmasterson1 - 17 Jun'05 - 20:20 - 1747 of 1749
and a friend tried to buy 11,500 today, and HSBC couldn't get them ....

I don't really believe what you said above, it is not possible for HSBC unable to get 11k shares, the market has loads of shares on offer for the whole day, five market makers were on offer and at least 10k each, Are you ramping the stock after price drop?
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