The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

I shall try be succinct and to the point.

From all the posts that I have read on Fillyaboots, Ample and MoneyAM, I agree that PET do not appear to be guilty of anything untoward. I agree with some that this smells very fishy! Living next to a fish mongers? No, I feel as though I have been thoroughly filleted by the days events. I have lost a considerable some of money and some future plans have consequently have had to be re-evaluated and substantially curtailed.

If todays Reuters reports which have been amended and corrected several times during the day were totally inaccurate as they apparently are - with regard to the awarding of the first two contracts then we should ask how on earth this report could have been so wrong. Who was this journalist and was he acting in good faith or was there some other motive behind his report or just professional incompetence. Dont forget that the timing of this report was rather crucial as it is the start of the weekend in Iraq from this afternoon.

It was also curious that Ironhorse (IOG) of Canada were chosen as they would not have been able to respond - because of the time difference - for several hours and well into the London SE trading day. By the time they did, considerable carnage had already been inflicted on the net worth of hundreds investors. Apart, that is, from the speculators who took advantage of the situation.

Another point, if the report was inaccurate, then surely the Iraqi MOO should have issued a statement to the effect that IOG were not one of the companies recommended to the Government. Their silence only served to create the belief in most PET investors minds that there probably was some substance to the Reuter journalists report. There was no need for them to actually name the (other) company(ies) but merely excluding one would have limited the damage to share price and saved some investors a small fortune.

Another point, if this was a leak, it was grossly inaccurate and the MOO should take steps to stop them. I know that, had the MOO made a statement to correct the Reuters report, it could have created a precedent, which some unscrupulous journalists could, in the future, exploit to manipulate share prices.

We all know that PET was a risky investment, but investors dont deserve to be fed duff information especially from a highly respected financial news organisation like Reuters. Reuters should make it their responsibility to investigate this report and take action to prevent re-occurrence in the future. They have, after all, their good name to protect.

Whether it was sound logic or not, my investment was based largely on the possibility that PET would get one of the three contracts they were bidding for. The possibility of the Block 6 exploration contract merely added value to support the share price.

No doubt some of you will say that situations like this come with the investment territory and we should just shrug our shoulders and take it on the chin. Absolute garbage!

I strongly feel that there are forces at work here that are deliberately manipulating the market to their own ends. This STINKS and deserves to be investigated by the appropriate authorities. Collectively, we have considerable muscle to initiate an investigation.

Comments/arguments, for or against please particularly from the more rational amongst you.

Oilywag

Oilywag that was the most reasoned post I have read out of all the hundreds from the bbs I have waded through today. I still hold for 2 reasons /hopes
the reuters post is proved totally wrong
and /or there is always block 6 contract

I looked up IOG on the TSX and found the company announcement from IOG(Tokyo's post 1737). It was released at 9:44am Toronto time- which I think is 6 hours behind our time. I'm not having any luck at all finding Everasia.Can anyone help?
I agree with you Oilywag....we are being stitched up big time and it's not by PET.

If reuters have got it wrong, im going to sue, ah!

They did get it wrong, hence the several amendments to their original news story. That is tantamount to them saying "meo culpa".

This should and must be pursued.

Oilywag

Clutching at straws!. PET know their fate and are remaining silent. They were hoping to keep the Jordanian rns for when they were forced to make their failure in Iraq official so that it would take some of the sting out of it but that news got leaked too and spoiled the party. You might as well face it PET is a bomber and my advice is go into damage limitation mode and move your money out as fast as possible, there are lots of other safer homes for it elsewhere. Once a company bombs like this it takes for ever to get back. The next move will have to be a new issue of shares to finance any work they may be asked to do in Jordan and Sudan. You have to be clever, move on from here and maybe PET might be worth getting back in to in the years to come when it has some decent licences under its belt and it about to start a drilling programme.
But for now? Forget it!.

Kellman in an earlier post you made reference to Simple Simon, you are now starting to sound like him too!!!

We shall see what tomorrow brings!!

How are we clutching at straws? There is no IOG deal. That part is obviously just plain wrong, so why not all of it is wrong? Is there a possibility of cowboys in the MOO trying to completely manipulate this stock before an announcement in PET's favour? What punishment could possibly come to an Iraqi minister? He just needed a stupid enough journalist to listen to him. OK I may be clutching at straws. Roll on tomorrow

Looking back I wonder if its Indian Oil and Gas Corp. who have got it. They have a confirmed legal right to block 8.

Whatever tomorrow brings in terms of long or short trading I suggest that any profit you make go to iraq based charity as any support from oil prospecting will take some time to reach those who need it the most.

Just arrived in Vancouver after a day's travelling so haven't suffered the way most have. At least matters seem less certain. Some thoughts to attenpt a rational debate: (1) If its a Canadian company then Heritage would seem likely but I would have thought it would be the Khurmala Dome project. (2) The Horgan quote is revealing: it would appear that PET have put, quite reasonably, a significant risk weighting into the bid. (3) One IOM source suggested bids of $150M and $200M for the two fields; The Irish Independent article appeared to leak a figure of $250M for PET's bid. (4) The contracts were based on a price plus a profit margin; if PET added a risk element, the indication is that they were fixed price bids. PET were undoubtedly right to take this approach; the worst scenario is to win a bid on which a significant loss is made. (5) No doubt, the Southern bid is also of the same type and it therefore is unlikely that PET will win it. (6) PET's future in Iraq is therefore back to Block 6 for which there is probably less urgency.

I have been reading Kahn's excellent book on Technical Analysis on the way over. He nakes the excellent point that there is a real difference between a Company and its shares. We don't invest in the company, per se, but in the shares of the company. Clearly T and H hold shares and thderefore lose as we do but the company goes on. It has been laying the ground work for a long time and the company will go on, I suggest, until the breakthrough comes. Whether we hold their shares or not is irrelevant to the company.

I say that because I think it would be far better if the extreme posts were not submitted to this column. For Irishmen, I hold that T and H have played straight bats. Their time will come. Do I hold having missed any selling opportunity I might have had? - I would first like, if possible, to have answers to the following key questions.

What do Tokyo, and others who have thoroughly researched the background, see as the potential of Block 6? Cost profile; timescales; funding required; effect on cap. of company when deal finalised; any research on potential of fields. If relationships between PET and IOM are as good as we believe they are, IOM owe PET to finalise this deal. Is this a fair point? Timescales?

Finally, keep the pecker up! You win some, you lose some! Hopefully, all have lived to fight another day!

Eric

OILYWAG; HERE HERE! I had the most expensive game of golf ever yesterday! there is a lot more to this than we will uncover. a poster had commented that Thurs would be a bad day followed by three very positive announcements, i await today with much interest! i am still holding and will do so over christmas. This is not an occasion to dump and run imo but to hold tight and react to today and the following days to come.

Needless to say i have lost a bundle so far, but research and much assistance from the many excellent posters on here make me believe that this is a case of manipulation to an extreme and NOT poor research and whimsical gambling!

Chin up and be careful out there!

INTERESTING..........THE WHOLE EPISODE IS CONFUSING

Ironhorse Oil & Gas Inc (TSX-V : V.IOG)

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Ironhorse Oil & Gas Inc.: Ironhorse clarifies no involvement with oil & gas development in Iraq

M2 Communications via COMTEX


Dec 16, 2004 1:14:40 PM

Dec 16, 2004 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) --

Venture),

It has been erroneously reported by international news services that the Company is involved in the development of an oilfield in Iraq. The Company is not pursuing any international oil and gas deals and is dedicated solely to exploration and production activities in Western Canada.

Ironhorse Oil & Gas Inc. is a Calgary-based junior oil and natural gas production company trading on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "IOG".

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. This news release may contain forward-looking information. Actual future results may differ materially from those contemplated in this release.

1000, 324 - 8th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 2Z2 Telephone: (403) 237-9600

CONTACT: Jim Wilson, VP Finance & CFO Tel: +1 403 237 9600 Maximum News Dissemination by Filing Services Canada Inc. Tel: +1 403 717 3898 Fax: +1 403 717 3896 WWW: http://www.usetdas.com

M2 Communications Ltd disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. Data supplied by named party/parties. Further information on M2 PressWIRE can be obtained at http://www.presswire.net on the world wide web. Inquiries to info@m2.com.

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morning all
are all troops present and correct?. excellent post oilywag and eric, good find by tokyo( don`t you ever sleep!!?). i am livid with PET for the way they had been sworn to secrecy, and then saying in e-mail to respected posters that all shareholders will be notified simultainiously. then yesterday, to kopking i think, they said that they knew that the IOM would release news via the media first. why did`nt they say in an rns that the awards would be made through the media, this would definitely have been price sensitive info.!

having said that i did manage to sell at nearly double my investment and bought back in again increasing my holding by 50%, this is`nt madness, because PET still have alot of irons in the fire, 3rd contract, block 6, jordan and sudan.

ziblot, i realy do feel for you, but i think you will still end up in profit, just maybe not to the same degree.

even at this sp, PET`s market cap. is 30m, so there is plenty of upside from here, it just might take a little longer. regarding the reuters article, i read it over and over yesterday, some thing does`nt sound quite right. regarding heritage oil, some one spoke to them yesterday and they said they had`nt tendered, they have just signed a JV with an iraqi co.

does anyone know what has happened to the sp of the indian co. that has been talked about on various bb`s

good luck to all, just your own judgements and don`t be swayed by de-rampers like this kellman/ simon self, or indeed by rampers. as always tou can`t beat your own research, use the bb`s to point you in the direction for your research.

regards,
dexter

This from the Times Online

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2706-1405731,00.html

Petrel plunges on loss of Iraq deals
By Peter Klinger

PETREL RESOURCES lost more than half its market value yesterday on fears that the Dublin-based oil and gas vehicle had missed out on potentially lucrative oilfield development contracts in Iraq.
Petrels AIM-traded shares plunged 51p to 46p after reports from Baghdad that the contracts had gone to companies from Turkey and Canada.

Petrel shares have been riding high over the past few months on hopes that it would be one of the first Western companies to receive an oilfield development contract in post-war Iraq.

In September, Petrel said that it had been invited by the Iraq Oil Ministry for an urgent and direct discussion to finalise its tender to develop the Khurmala Dome field. Petrel has submitted tenders for two other fields in Iraq, including the Hamrin project.

The Khurmala field has the potential to produce 100,000 barrels of oil a day.

Petrels board said yesterday that it had received no notification from the Oil Ministry in relation to the report that the Khurmala contract had been awarded to a Turkish company and the Hamrin contract to a Canadian company.

We are seeking immediate clarification from the Oil Ministry in Iraq, the board said.

An Iraqi ministry official said that the Hamrin contract had been awarded to a company called IOG. However, Ironhorse Oil and Gas, a Canadian company, denied that it was the company in question.

The Iraqi ministry is studying offers for a third contract to raise the output of the Suba-Luhais oilfield from 50,000 barrels a day to 180,000.

The oilfield contracts will be Iraqs first oil deals since the end of the rule of Saddam Hussein.


Irish Independant.

Petrel price halved on 'lost' contracts
Friday December 17th 2004
ADVERTISEMENT



THE share price of Irish exploration company Petrel Resources tanked spectacularly yesterday after a Reuters report stated that a Turkish company and a Canadian company had won two Iraqi oil development contracts worth $350m.

Petrel had made a strong bid for each of the two contracts to develop large oilfields at Khurmala and at Hamrin in Iraq, and had also bid for a third contract to develop two other oilfields at Subha and Luhais.

Petrel's share price dropped from almost 99p in London to as low as 25p before recovering to 45.5p by the late afternoon for a halving of its value on the day.

The company has 60 million shares in issue which meant its value went from 59.4m yesterday morning to less than 27.3m in the late afternoon.

Chairman John Teeling, (above), has 3.5 million shares worth 3.76m earlier this week, while director David Horgan has 2.6 million worth 2.8m earlier.

Their stakes are now worth less than half those figures.

Over the past two years Petrel's share price has rocketted from a level of 3p to a high of 109p on the back of hopes that the company will strike it rich in war-torn Iraq.

In July 2003 the company released its annual results under a banner "Petrel is Open for Business in Baghdad".

The company's chairman John Teeling said yesterday he "felt awful for shareholders" including his fellow directors. "The founding families have over 20pc of this company," he said.

Dr Teeling said Petrel director David Horgan was trying to contact Oil Ministry officials to confirm the report.

"We expected the Council of Ministers to make the announcements to the media followed by notification to the winners and losers," Dr Teeling said.

"We don't know we haven't got them (the contracts)".

Petrel initially proposed a risk-sharing contract for the projects, where it could earn a percentage of any new oil discovered.

Iraq's oil ministry rejected that offer and planned toward the contracts on a "dollar" basis for engineering and equipment supply services, Ahmed al Shamaa, under-secretary of oil, said.

With no engineering capability, Petrel planned to connect with specialist oil and gas-services companies to do the work if it won the contracts, Teeling said.

Petrel's share price hit a level of 107.5p earlier this week after it announced the winning of an exploration licence in Jordan across the border from Block 6 in the Sunni Triangle in Iraq.

Petrel's stock price quintupled in the first nine months of 2004 and reached a record high of 133.5p on October 7 as oil prices soared.

Jim Aughney

Write up in FT & the mail , can someone paste it please.

Mes amities . l come here to neither bury great Ceasar nor praise him . ,But to suggest the saga of PET is complete is an absolute misnomer . lts a hard call as to what will happen here .As much as i agree with Kellman in his general appraisal of the company were they to fail in winning ANY of the already mentioned contracts ,l think he is somewhat guilty of completely ignoring the mechanics and dynamics of the market.Namely the market always initially overeacts and corrects itself the following day Besides ,,, On Dec 16th 2004 at 6-38 {PST} trading in IOG {lronhorse} were suspended under provisions of section 10-(99(1) pending immediate contact with the market regulation services after the said stock leapt 25% despite absolutely derisory volumes . This action immediately led to a rapid statement/rebuttal by Jim Wilson VP(Finance) and CFO of lronhorse { to which Tokyo erruditely makes more than adequate reference } and which manifestly illustrates the company has no interest whatsoever in the development of ANY lraqi fields .The regulator appeared totally satisfied, and subsequently, at 10-30 {PST}, shares in the company resumed trading ... ,,,Now this opens a far broader and wider issue .Namely the validity of that RNS . Now while ammedments to Regulatory announcements are not uncommon as more detailed news of deals are made known to the market , it is not a secret in the city that in certain cases RNS announcements have proven to be both either invalid or inaccurate or both . Or damned fraudulent .This fact can be bourne out by NML, another mining outfit, who themselves were victims of an RNS hoax which led to a plethora of massive sells earliar this year. ,,,, Now ln the interests of brevity i will quickly come to the point,,,When PET was treading water in the 103-117p parameter not so long ago, MMS were very reluctant to improve the spread flying right in the face of some rather heavy buying{ as has always been the case with the stock in question} ,and yet almost every minisule sell resulted in their immediate downmarking . Now since Pet hit its nadir at 26p the scenario has been totally thrown into reverse gear - Heavy sells are ignored and every buy is sending the share ever higher ,,,MMS are running scared ,,,,,,,,,l think it could be a matter of an hour,and we could see Pet back at the 90p level . Such is the mechanics of the market Qui sait ? ,,,a'bientot /,,,Bonne chance .

aldwickk look back one entry and you will see two write ups.

One point - The Rueters news item never came out electronically, but was on thier web site.

That in itself is very unusual.