I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

FT


Liberty covets QVC shopping channel income
By Peter Thal Larsen in New York
Financial Times; Mar 26, 2003


Liberty Media yesterday suggested that it was mainly interested in taking control of QVC because of the home shopping channel's cashflow.

"We already own a large chunk of it and have the ability to shelter a large part of its income," Dob Bennett, Liberty's chief executive, said yesterday. "It would be valuable to us to have a large cash-producing asset."

John Malone, Liberty Media's chairman, earlier this month triggered a process that may give the company the chance to take control of QVC by buying out cable operator Comcast's 57 per cent shareholding in the business. Analysts believe QVC is worth $13bn-$14bn.

Mr Bennett stressed that Liberty would only take control of QVC at the right price. But he once again stressed that the company wanted to increase the proportion of assets in its portfolio that it controls.

"We want to have more operating businesses so we are able to access the cashflow that could support our debt and other activities," he said.

Aside from QVC, Liberty is also considering making an offer for DirecTV, although it remains unclear whether Mr Malone will bid alongside or against Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. It would also like to combine its Starz/Encore premium cable channels with Vivendi's US media operations.

Mr Bennett was speaking as Liberty reported a $5.3bn net loss for last year, mainly because of a $6bn write-down on the value of its public investments, which include stakes in AOL Time Warner and News Corp.

Mr Bennett said it was "hard to tell" whether Liberty would be able to find a single solution for its multiple disputes with Comcast.

Aside from the negotiation over QVC, the company is also locked in a legal battle with Comcast over the terms of a distribution deal for Starz on the cable operator's systems.

results tomorrow

Ains,

any idea / rumor / guess / thought / prediction etc. if there will be an announcement regards the restructure..

nothing of consequence ..... I would expect the customer spend to be good but wonder about the churn rate as they have been pushing prices up.

I would expect an update but nothing very new on D4E - I am stil holding and looking to buy back my ST trading shares but was hoping for 2.2 or less



ains

It will be interesting to see the churn rate. I believe they introducted a new credit checking process to stop bad payers. I guess we will see if this has had an impact.

This is true - you have to pay by card when you open an account - this has been very effective by all accounts


ains

Ains, What is L2 like for TWT. So are you not prepared to top up unless it hits 2.2? What's the likeihood if any of it shooting up tommorrow do you think? perhaps to 3p or are you thinking of less then positive news maybe hence falls to 2p or just above. Thanks.

stv .... I have a plan .... and stay with it .... made me lots so far on this share :-))

I think we could easily see 3p tomorrow omn the right figures and/or news

L2 is getting busier with 200k trades either side -probable manipulation



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 1 (50.00%) 200,000 2.40 - 2.50 200,000 (50.00%) 1 (50.00%)
5% (50.00%) 1 (50.00%) 200,000 2.40 - 2.50 200,000 (50.00%) 1 (50.00%)
10% (50.00%) 2 (62.50%) 400,000 2.35 - 2.52 240,000 (37.50%) 2 (50.00%)
15% (54.55%) 6 (42.46%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.67 1,382,533 (57.54%) 5 (45.45%)
50% (46.15%) 6 (39.82%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.68 1,541,533 (60.18%) 7 (53.85%)
100% (33.33%) 6 (36.73%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.71 1,757,233 (63.27%) 12 (66.67%)
all (31.58%) 6 (35.45%) 1,020,000 2.29 - 2.78 1,857,233 (64.55%) 13 (68.42%

Do you know what time the results are out and hence if +ve need to buy now right? Thanks.

I dont know timing - but could be they wait for US open ...... might buy a few later today if they did - 2.5p at this time

The results will be announced at 07:00 tomorrow - when the bond market opens.

When the last preliminary results were announced can you tell me the mkt reaction?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to that - things are a lot different now.

In my view the only 'real' thing that is going to move this price significantly upwards is confirmation of the agreement of the restructure plans.

What's L2 showing. Offer has moved up & hence I probably should not have kept waiting. Thanks Ains/Baldrick, too late for me now so hope can get in tommorrow @lower level.

last figures were on the 7th nov - and the shares lost against the opening price

vols picking up now and as always only a few peeps want to sell



ains

I expect the headline losses to be pretty dire. This to reflect further massive writedowns in asset value.
The end game being to make TWT a slimmer & meaner company post restructure.
Whether or not existing shareholders participate in the future of the company, is open to question.

Existing shareholders are in line for the minimum 3% already discussed ..... don't see this changing on the downside



ains

Existing Shareholders are in line for the minimum 3%, only if agreed to by Bondholders.
This figure was speculatively put forward by TWT Directors at the time of restructure announcement. It was never agreed to by Bondholders.
Since Telewest are now officially in default, neither the Directors or Shareholders have any bargaining powers, on what ratio restructure will be.
That will be down to the 'generosity' of Bondholders.

thats just nonsense ...... it is already agreed that shareholders will have the vote on the package for D4E including Liberty - we sre not about to vote for nothing. We don't need the generosity of the bondholders - they do not run or own the company and you have made a complete mistake in saying the bondholders didnt agree - that's where the 3% figure came from ........


ains

HIGHLIGHTS

- Broadband leadership
- 297,000 broadband subscribers today
- 10% of customers subscribe to triple-play (up from 3%)
- EBITDA before exceptionals up 19% year-on-year to 379m
- Headcount reductions of 1,450 delivered
- Capex down by 27% year-on-year
- Exceptional non-cash charge of 1,643m for asset impairment
- Financial restructuring discussions continue

Commenting on the results, Charles Burdick, managing director of Telewest
Communications, said:

'We continue our focused strategy designed to accelerate cash generation, future
profitability and provide a platform for growth. These results demonstrate the
progress we have made. Costs (before redundancy payments) and capex are
significantly down and revenues, EBITDA and EBITDA margin are up. We now have
297,000 broadband customers and approximately 80% market share in our cabled
areas.

'Our efforts are now focused on sustaining our leadership in broadband, building
a profitable customer-base, great customer service and controlling costs. We are
building on our strengths in local access to the residential and business
customer; the power of bundling multiple services; and our unique position in
content through our ownership of Flextech.

Management and staff have responded well in very difficult circumstances and I
am confident that the right strategies and steps have now been taken to deliver
the vision for this company.'